Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:42 am**

13Z run of the HRRR has that gap just south of us so most folks get some much needed rain. It's a close call! I'd rather error on the side of caution and be pleasantly surprised.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 11:49 am**

My Dome just broke open! Getting a nice heavy shower right now and a little wind too.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:13 pm**

Wow! That shower may have only lasted about 5 or 10 mins but it put down a quick 0.20"!!! CVG 0.05" and Zippo at the Boone Co mesonet site.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:17 pm**

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ060>065-070>074-077>082-
088-100015-
/O.NEW.KILN.FA.A.0005.230809T2200Z-230810T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-
Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Portsmouth, Camden, Carrollton, Lancaster,
Hillsboro, Burlington, Lebanon, Springboro, Brookville, Eaton,
Oakbrook, Peebles, Warsaw, Alexandria, Middletown, Piketon,
Connersville, Kettering, Cincinnati, West Union, Liberty, West
College Corner, Independence, Waverly, Versailles, Newport, Oxford,
Blanchester, Pickerington, Logan, Rising Sun, Wilmington, Vevay,
Lawrenceburg, Beavercreek, Erlanger, Florence, Richmond,
Circleville, Georgetown, Batesville, Fairfield, Wheelersburg,
Covington, Milan, Xenia, Mason, Mount Orab, Washington Court House,
Milford, Hamilton, Greenfield, Fairborn, Dayton, Chillicothe, and
Aurora
1209 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...The following counties, in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette IN,
Franklin IN, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union IN and Wayne. In
Northern Kentucky, Boone, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin and Kenton.
In Ohio, Adams, Brown, Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Fairfield,
Fayette OH, Greene, Hamilton, Highland, Hocking, Montgomery,
Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ross, Scioto and Warren.

* WHEN...From 6 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches along with local
totals in excess of 3 inches are possible in the watch area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People in the watch area should keep an eye on the weather and be
prepared for immediate action should heavy rains and flooding occur
or a Flash Flood Warning be issued. Avoid low-lying areas and be
careful when approaching highway dips and underpasses.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:28 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:13 pm Wow! That shower may have only lasted about 5 or 10 mins but it put down a quick 0.20"!!! CVG 0.05" and Zippo at the Boone Co mesonet site.

Wow is right, it's now pouring out here in Fairfield as it was just partly cloudy 20 min ago!

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:29 pm**

Surprise and this is what I love about the weather. Yes I knew the atmosphere was moist and that is why I thought later tonight we have a decent shot of some decent rain but did I see a shower or thundershower before noon today and the answer is 100p/c no. I thought the temp had a chance to hit 85 at CVG well guess what that will not happen because of the quick uptake in clouds and yes rain.

A little surprised as well concerning flood watch and though I see some areas getting some decent rains I was not sold either way of a flood watch. My guess is because the rain can come down in buckets in a short period they decided it was wise to issue the watch and I have no problem with that call. Does not mean widespread flooding but you can get those quick flash floods that are really more dangerous.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:35 pm**

Agreed Tim that the mid 80s aren't going to happen. That was the boundary that moved thru that kicked off that brief line of showers. We should see some sun breaks after those showers pass out ahead of the main area of convection and rainfall associated with the MCS in MO moving into ILL. If that doesn't weaken too much then we've got a shot at the heavier totals!

The boys had this to say and they seem more optimistic now then they did overnight (hence the FFW that Matt posted).

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure centered over the TN Valley to shift off
to the east today. Clouds will increase from the southwest with
the development of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms
in a region of warm air advection and low level theta-e
advection. Radar showing a a few showers breaking out across
portions of southern Indiana. Accounting for this development
have minor adjustment to the forecast - slightly faster with
pcpn.

Expect pcpn coverage to increase across the eastern Indiana,
southwest Ohio and north central Kentucky late in the day in
response to a 25-30 kt low level jet. Precipitable water values
approach 2 inches later this evening into the overnight hours.
Model solutions showing a signal for heavy rain later this
evening into the overnight hours. Some differences in placement
but observing some clustering generally over eastern Indiana and
into southwest Ohio between CVG and DAY. Widespread storm total
of 1 to 2 inch with local totals in excess of 3 inches possible.

Highs today will be in the lower and middle 80s, with a marked
increase in humidity.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:37 pm**

Is the NAM / Euro combo going to be right??? They have been showing those heavier totals for us where the HRRR has been on and off with the idea. The GFS should largely be ignored for the foreseeable future as it keeps showing phantom historical heat waves in the longer term which obviously isn't happening.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:59 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:37 pm Is the NAM / Euro combo going to be right??? They have been showing those heavier totals for us where the HRRR has been on and off with the idea. The GFS should largely be ignored for the foreseeable future as it keeps showing phantom historical heat waves in the longer term which obviously isn't happening.

What is wrong with the gfs. Even a model has its limitations unless somebody is feeding false info into the system. Come I saw temps in the 112-115 range for us which I believe the all time high is maybe 109 plus we have plenty of vegetation and its mid-August where we do not have the amount of daylight hours like in late June. The Euro which is usually the bad model in the summer at least has been better with the temps though precip has been a problem with that model from time to time.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:11 pm**

Say what? A flood watch? I say bring it

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:35 pm**

Check your news feeds. The island of Maui is on fire - particularly Lahaina Town. A contained wildfire exploded overnight due to high winds and will likely destroy much of the entire town. The Coast Guard is rescuing people that fled into the ocean to escape the flames.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:57 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:59 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:37 pm Is the NAM / Euro combo going to be right??? They have been showing those heavier totals for us where the HRRR has been on and off with the idea. The GFS should largely be ignored for the foreseeable future as it keeps showing phantom historical heat waves in the longer term which obviously isn't happening.
What is wrong with the gfs. Even a model has its limitations unless somebody is feeding false info into the system. Come I saw temps in the 112-115 range for us which I believe the all time high is maybe 109 plus we have plenty of vegetation and its mid-August where we do not have the amount of daylight hours like in late June. The Euro which is usually the bad model in the summer at least has been better with the temps though precip has been a problem with that model from time to time.

I've been noticing that also lately on the GFS trends with a tropical system in the GOM from time to time. Hopefully no long term heat waves on the way as there's no reason to believe that this pattern we've had much of the summer is going away soon!

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:59 pm**

We got an inch in Fairfield from that quick heavy rain. It was raining extremely hard and coming down sideways.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 2:05 pm**

snowbo wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:35 pm Check your news feeds. The island of Maui is on fire - particularly Lahaina Town. A contained wildfire exploded overnight due to high winds and will likely destroy much of the entire town. The Coast Guard is rescuing people that fled into the ocean to escape the flames.

My neighbor's daughter and her family had to evacuate. They were able to get out but their home and everything they owned is gone.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:31 pm**

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:57 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:59 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:37 pm Is the NAM / Euro combo going to be right??? They have been showing those heavier totals for us where the HRRR has been on and off with the idea. The GFS should largely be ignored for the foreseeable future as it keeps showing phantom historical heat waves in the longer term which obviously isn't happening.
What is wrong with the gfs. Even a model has its limitations unless somebody is feeding false info into the system. Come I saw temps in the 112-115 range for us which I believe the all time high is maybe 109 plus we have plenty of vegetation and its mid-August where we do not have the amount of daylight hours like in late June. The Euro which is usually the bad model in the summer at least has been better with the temps though precip has been a problem with that model from time to time.
I've been noticing that also lately on the GFS trends with a tropical system in the GOM from time to time. Hopefully no long term heat waves on the way as there's no reason to believe that this pattern we've had much of the summer is going away soon!

Guys... If I recall the all time record for Cincy was 108 back in July during the dust bowl years in the 1930s. It was either 1934 or 1936. Can't remember the exact year off hand. No way 100 degrees plus is happening this year. You need a drought and yeah some areas are still at D0 but the worst of the drought is over for us. Are we done with the 90s? Of course not.

Speaking of the 90s, Scotty D posted this interesting stat on Facebook:

Scotty D.jpg

So in short, if we get thru Aug 15th with no 90s at CVG, we have established a new record. We have never NOT hit 90 degrees during the first half of August since 1872!

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:32 pm**

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 2:05 pm
snowbo wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:35 pm Check your news feeds. The island of Maui is on fire - particularly Lahaina Town. A contained wildfire exploded overnight due to high winds and will likely destroy much of the entire town. The Coast Guard is rescuing people that fled into the ocean to escape the flames.
My neighbor's daughter and her family had to evacuate. They were able to get out but their home and everything they owned is gone.

The winds are from Hurricane Dora. 80 mph gusts were reported to fan those flames.

I mentioned it earlier also in our Tropical Weather section of the forum in the Eastern Pacific thread.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:42 pm**

12Z Euro gives CVG 1.5" of rain tonight. 18Z HRRR still showing the split, but the LLJ allows a tail to form so the River counties and esp NKY still get a decent line to move thru later in the evening towards midnight or so to save us from getting the shaft. Seeing some sun breaks now. CAPE is decent 1500-2000J/KG range. Most of the 2000 J/KG lies just off to our West. The best shear of 50-60 knots is where the enhanced risk for severe wx is well to our SW. We do have some 30-40 knot shear off to the NW over North Central ILL and NW Indiana so we'll see if any of that can work its way in our direction. PWATS are increasing to our SW and that will translate into our area as time goes on esp once the LLJ ramps up tonight. You can see a gap between the two areas of precip to our West, however additional scattered storms are developing out ahead of it. I suppose we are fair game for rainfall about anytime.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:08 pm**

18Z NAM coming back down to reality giving CVG 0.97" for the event.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:09 pm**

Models are trying their best and like I mentioned earlier you have two pieces of energy and you can understand why the HRRR will show the split rather large one hour and then not so much. Both waves imo have done well today in staying intact for the most part. Very moist in all parts of the atmosphere. Will the waves be far enough apart tonight where someone gets the shaft and probably so but even this late in the game its hard to pinpoint that area. We see these MCS's more in late May through July locally and they tend to be further north this time of year. Doing so we are bringing the GOM into play even more and that is why we are seeing the chance for flooding. Not the kind of flooding where the rivers and streams are just full but the flash floods which imo are hard to predict and come very quickly.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:26 pm**

The gap is very evident on radar between the two areas of rain, but as I said earlier scattered cells are firing within the gap. Highest PWATS are still off to the West associated with the MCV itself. It's still a tricky forecast and we'll just need to keep tabs on the radar honestly at this point. Better dynamics are still off to the West so hopefully as time goes on late this afternoon and evening, we'll see an increase in coverage for those of us in that gap currently.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:30 pm**

This map is about a half hour old but you can see the energy to the West over ILL getting into Western IN as of 4pm.

dvvr_sf.gif

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:57 pm**

Picked up 2 tenths from a cell about 3pm. I got soaked to the bone but it felt good.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:16 pm**

I had a brief shower with a clap of thunder here in G'ville earlier.

In some ways its too bad today's Redlegs / Marlins game wasn't a washout.

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:23 pm**

Posted: **Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:37 pm**

Screw-zone watch has been issued for parts of CVGland. Stay tuned for updates

Absolute Vorticity

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