Absolute Vorticity

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1004 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-121415-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1004 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The potential exists for elevated fire danger on Wednesday.

$$

Not much change from the 12z GFS thru early next week. The bigger change is to build a ridge back in so no strong cold front towards the end of next week. That would be welcomed news for my trip and the tournament fishermen!

12Z Euro is deeper with the trough early next week so light showers as far south as our local area is possible and much colder then the GFS. I am siding with the GFS idea of keeping any precip early next week N of I-70. For the end of next week, the Euro still has the front coming in by next Friday. So that is our next challenge since we have decent agreement until then.

72 currently with a very dry dew of 36. Watch for fire danger concerns the next few days as Eric alluded too earlier.

Good evening all! A gorgeous 75 here today with a couple more beauties still to come! Hope everyone is able to enjoy the nice weather and get things done that they need to get done. Been staying busy here between working and everything else that life throws at you but the weather at this point is taking a back seat since there isn't much to talk about... yet.

Watch the upper low towards the end of the work week which then combines some moisture with an approaching cold front. I still like chance POPS Fri afternoon thru Sat with likely POPS Sat night into Sunday. I currently expect a frontal passage Sun morning so bad timing for severe wx prospects.

Good Evening and what a beautiful day. So what can we expect after the lovely weather this week. Normally we tend to get cooler air from the northeast once you head deeper into April and May. I still believe that will happen but this season with the way above normal snow pack in the northern plains and south central Canada colder air from the north can head further south than say a normal year. Still we usually get quick shots of cool air and that seems to be the case. Starting to see more flood advisories in the northern plains,upper mid-west and this should continue to ramp up over the next several weeks. The one good thing is rainfall in the plains looks to be about average so no big time rains at this point.

It's a brief break in the pattern before another shot of cold air Sun / early next week. Then, do we get another cold shot or does the warmth keep going is the next question. Typical spring, back n forth weather. Having a nice stretch right now is not typical though for this time of year but after all of the damn wind storms, we'll take it!

This weeks weather is just what was needed for the farmers. They’ll be hitting it hard by this weekend and next week as the weekend rains will be light from nothing to at most a half inch in isolated spots, and that won’t be enough to halt the plow boys from doing there job. The OV is in the weak spot with the low pressure along the southern coast and the low moving into the upper lakes, leaving us with little forcing along the cold front

Good morning all! We are around 10 degrees warmer this morning to start the day so the mid to U70s should be likely the next few days. Agree with Bgoney. Sat isn't too bad of a day. Best chance is still Sat night into Sun morning. Windy with falling temps behind the front on Sun. Dry and cool behind the front early next week with temps in the 50s.

71 as of 12pm already at CVG. Another C of C Day in progress...

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 11:58 am 71 as of 12pm already at CVG. Another C of C Day in progress...

C of C ? LOL

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 12:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 11:58 am 71 as of 12pm already at CVG. Another C of C Day in progress...

C of C ? LOL

Chamber of Commerce

From this morning...

Good morning! Another day around 50 to start with plentiful sunshine and the U70s expected. Can anyone pull off an 80? Post if you do. Then a little cooler tomorrow with clouds and possible showers and t-storms in the afternoon. These will be scattered. Sat is a nice day with only a small chance for rain. Sat night into the day on Sun is still likely action with the cold front along with windy conditions and falling temps thru the 50s. Highs in the 50s Mon, 60s Tues and back to the 70s thereafter with dry conditions. Then... the next system is due in on Fri and is it a front or a cut off low? We have guidance suggesting both are possible solutions from this distance.

75 as of 1pm... 80 is doable S of the River in my opinion.

12Z GFS had a few changes. A slower frontal passage on Sunday. Better wrap around snow / rain shower coverage with the upper low on Monday. Still mainly I-70 on north IMO. No issues obviously expected. Then a slower frontal passage with the next system by Sat which stalls a front out for a few days so heavy rains possible from this distance. Euro has been having more of a cut off low solution on its previous run.

I have 80.1here at my house!

80 today here, 79 at CVG so far. 12Z Euro in good agreement with the 12Z GFS.

Currently 79 here in G'ville.

For this mild week so far ...

Mon ~ CVG and DAY both 70, CMH 69

Tues ~ CVG and CMH both 74, DAY 75

Wed ~ DAY and CMH both 79, CVG 77

Thurs ~ CMH reached 81, DAY 80 and CVG 79

UPDATE: Fri ~ CVG reached 78, DAY 75 and CMH 74

81 IMBY today!! Wow! El Nino Watch issued by NOAA Today:

Low over MS ...

We will watch that for possible showers in scattered form by tomorrow afternoon. Mowed and trimmed the lawn today for the second time this season.

Good Friday to you all! We should still get into the 70s today but it won't be as warm as previous days thanks to clouds and a few showers around. Not everyone will see rain. Tomorrow, the chances are also very low with temps in the U70s again. Sunday is when the front comes thru with falling afternoon temps and some wind. Mon is chilly, cloudy and breezy in the 50s. Then we rebound again. So other then some minor timing changes, not much else has changed from the guidance.

I've got lots to read and get caught up! Been offline for a bit LOL! 75 in my hood currently. Sunday was my second time mowing as well.

74 as of 3pm at CVG under partly sunny skies. Radar shows a few scattered showers around but nothing heavy or oragnized.