Atlantic Hurricane Season 2023

[tron777]

A disturbance in the Caribbean looks to have a 70% chance in the next 5 days to develop. I think a TS or hurricane is likely before it moves more northward and becomes extra tropical over the weekend to potentially impact the Eastern Seaboard and Nova Scotia (possible big snow storm for NS).


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tron777]

The Caribbean wave is now down to a 50% chance of development.

[tron777]

Our Caribbean wave is now PTC 22 which has a 40% chance to develop.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023
1000 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

...DISTURBANCE'S CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
DECREASING...
...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
ACROSS JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[tron777]

The tropical wave developing into a possible TD or TS is now completely dead/ A 0% chance of development now per the NHC.