Absolute Vorticity

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 7:03 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:44 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:19 pm Kinda surprised no wind advisory issued yet. Models are advertising gusts up to 50mph. Maybe they’ll issue later.

Hi Trev,

You'll have to try the Golden Lamb sometime bro.

That place is packed with history and those like Benjamin Franklin, Harriet Beecher Stowe ("Uncle Tom's Cabin") e.g. etc have dined and lodged there.

It’s on my list and only a few minute walk from my place

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:50 am A cold frosty morning here. Frost is still hanging on where the sun has not hit yet.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 10:58 am Good Morning and some more frost this morning. Lets see later today if the models especially the gfs is headed in the right direction in terms of cold weather. So far the upgrade is no better imo. How much rain is the question and again no change from my forecast through Thursday withe lighter amounts towards I-70 around .5 and maybe less in some areas especially the further north you go. Locally still believe 1-2 inches seem good and folks further south of I-64 could see over 2 inches.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 11:11 am Good Morning Les and I agree with you on how the models are struggling with a rather massive -NAO and -AO expected. I believe later this week the operation models will come around. Once we get into the pattern how long does it last. Many times between 15-20 days but getting this in the second half of Dec and depending how much snow covers the eastern half of the USA may extend that when we try and get the January Thaw. I am still waiting for a bigger storm to so up especially next weekend or the following week. Big pattern changes usually gives us a big storm or maybe two to ring in the new pattern.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 8:54 am Good morning all! Chilly out there, eh? A low of 21 I believe at CVG, had 20 here. Boone Co mesonet site also down to 21. We will rise up into the U30s today maybe a few 40s out there at most. Rain moves in late tomorrow and esp by evening. This kicks off a well advertised period of rain chances and mild conditions in the 40s and 50s for highs. I am still sticking with the heaviest rains coming Thurs and Fri. Total rains for the entire period (Mon thru Fri) still looking to be 0.50-0.75" I just see no reason to change this call and models for the most part continue to show this idea.

In the medium to long range period, I am thinking we see one more rainer Sunday into Monday (Dec 11-12th) which should then, begin to kick start the much awaited and anticipated wintry pattern. So let's see how good or bad I do with this call. Could it be delayed a bit? Yes, we've already discussed that possibility. But it will not be denied IMHO. I'm doing the best I can to trust the pattern, trust my instincts, and ignore a lot of the model mayhem we will continue to see over the next week.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 11:49 am Looks like the GFS and CMC both have a big storm in about 10 days or so off the east coast. Will this be correct and most likely not exactly as it is shown today but the difference is the CMC is much colder and has an upper system that gives us some snow. The difference out west is very important as the CMC is trying to form a ridge that goes up the west coast while the gfs continue to have a trough over the same area. So again this is 10 days out and yes over the next several days we will see different outcomes but the storm off the east coast is something that happens quite often especially with a stronger negative NAO.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 12:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 8:54 am Good morning all! Chilly out there, eh? A low of 21 I believe at CVG, had 20 here. Boone Co mesonet site also down to 21. We will rise up into the U30s today maybe a few 40s out there at most. Rain moves in late tomorrow and esp by evening. This kicks off a well advertised period of rain chances and mild conditions in the 40s and 50s for highs. I am still sticking with the heaviest rains coming Thurs and Fri. Total rains for the entire period (Mon thru Fri) still looking to be 0.50-0.75" I just see no reason to change this call and models for the most part continue to show this idea.

In the medium to long range period, I am thinking we see one more rainer Sunday into Monday (Dec 11-12th) which should then, begin to kick start the much awaited and anticipated wintry pattern. So let's see how good or bad I do with this call. Could it be delayed a bit? Yes, we've already discussed that possibility. But it will not be denied IMHO. I'm doing the best I can to trust the pattern, trust my instincts, and ignore a lot of the model mayhem we will continue to see over the next week.

I'll be keeping tabs on the 13th Bro as my folks plan to celebrate Mom's 83rd birthday and their 61st pre-anniversary celebration going up to Shipshewana, IN (Amish country) in the northeast region of that state to see a dinner theater stage production. Then they'll stay overnight in Middlebury, IN and head home sometime on the 14th.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 10:32 am

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:50 am A cold frosty morning here. Frost is still hanging on where the sun has not hit yet.

Yeah! The little bit of greenery here that is left, should be gone after this morning.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 8:02 pm Tim... we have been tracking this change for so long (like 2-3 weeks now) that I am glad we are finally seeing a bit of light at the end of the tunnel. By the end of this week, we should have a much clearer picture (I hope LOL) as to where we are headed for mid month and the week leading up to Christmas.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 8:11 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 8:02 pm Tim... we have been tracking this change for so long (like 2-3 weeks now) that I am glad we are finally seeing a bit of light at the end of the tunnel. By the end of this week, we should have a much clearer picture (I hope LOL) as to where we are headed for mid month and the week leading up to Christmas.

Les I agree and the models have been giving us head fakes but we never fell for them. Still not there but getting close and hopefully by late week the model foolishness will have gone away for the most part.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 8:22 pm I agree Les and we called the 10 day cold in November when temps were in the 70's so figuring out the pattern is number one for me when making a forecast. If I get the pattern wrong then usually my forecast goes down the tubes. The mjo is making a quick decent in the COD and heading for phase 3 which is not a good phase. I believe that will not happen and will rotate in the COD before maybe coming back into phase 1 or 8 in about 10-14 days. That would fit perfect with the change to a winter pattern. Another thing I normally do is when I see a pattern then the models see it they tend to rush things so I always tend to be further out in time when it comes to pattern changes. Such a big world and though the models can pick up on some subtle hints it just takes time. We both have been really good on the timeline and lets hope that is correct.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 8:27 am Good morning! A chilly start in the 20s with another nice frost! We will warm up into the 40s today with rain possible before the day is thru. Light rain though and the same for Tues. afternoon and night. Wed should be the warmest day kind of in between systems. Can we make a run at 60? I'll keep temps in the 50s for now. The bulk of the rain I am still expecting on Thurs perhaps ending earlier by Fri morning. amounts for the week are unchanged from me. 0.50 to 0.75". Could someone get an inch? Sure. There are always going to be isolated amounts higher then my range but for me to verify the majority of the obs should be in my forecast range.

A dry Sat then our next system works in to usher in the pattern change. Euro and CMC have a viable solution with a low into the OV which transfers its energy to an East Coast Low. Classic solution in blocking patterns. Once we get to this point, hopefully we can time our snow chances better in the longer term.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:18 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 8:27 am Good morning! A chilly start in the 20s with another nice frost! We will warm up into the 40s today with rain possible before the day is thru. Light rain though and the same for Tues. afternoon and night. Wed should be the warmest day kind of in between systems. Can we make a run at 60? I'll keep temps in the 50s for now. The bulk of the rain I am still expecting on Thurs perhaps ending earlier by Fri morning. amounts for the week are unchanged from me. 0.50 to 0.75". Could someone get an inch? Sure. There are always going to be isolated amounts higher then my range but for me to verify the majority of the obs should be in my forecast range.

A dry Sat then our next system works in to usher in the pattern change. Euro and CMC have a viable solution with a low into the OV which transfers its energy to an East Coast Low. Classic solution in blocking patterns. Once we get to this point, hopefully we can time our snow chances better in the longer term.

Good Morning Les. Will agree on almost everything though I am little higher on rainfall totals. I was trying to figure out where the warm front sets up this week and I have it south of us which then throws moisture over the top and we get the totals between 1-2 inches with the heaviest south of here between Cincy and Lexington. Could I see less amounts and no doubt but at the end of the day I kept the higher amounts in the forecast. Thursday could be really a wet day with many hours of rainfall so we have already received 0.11 so need another 0.89 to get that 1 inch total.

Should be fun to see the latest run of the gfs as it changes every run and the changes are major. I agree the Euro and Cmc may not be perfect but yo don't see the wild swings and if it does happen with them that most likely means something will change.