November 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

12Z GFS is west of 6Z, but not as far west as the NAM. Brings rains to our doorstep. SE counties get some rain out of it. Rest of us dry. Due to the strength of the incoming arctic front, it's going to be tough for Nicole to get very far west. If we had a ridge overhead, it would be very warm, but 1-3" of rain would fall. We've got a cold airmass pressing in at the same time Nicole is coming up the Eastern US. Just bad timing is all and that bad timing could screw us out of some rainfall. Def a possibility but until we get closer, confidence is going to remain low anyway as to her exact track. We know the speed of the front is very fast with falling temps on Friday. Highs will be early in the day.

Yeah, If Nicole can just speed up a little and be stronger, she would hold back the front some and we would be golden for Friday. I'm just not seeing any good rains or snow over the next two weeks. On another note...I really hope that we don't get into a cold dry pattern for this winter as I'm starting to see this current pattern repeat itself. Nothing worse than a cold dry winter!

I don't know which is worse. Cold and dry or warm and wet. We seem to get plenty of both lol

[tron777]

We need the flow to slow down a bit for a phasing system. That 16th potential on the table... the flow is pretty fast right now so I'd bet on light precip, probably flurries, unless something changes, like the NAO goes more negative as an example then projected.

[airwolf76]

Oh... did anyone besides me happen to see the lunar eclipse this morning? It was pretty cool seeing the red moon too. Next one won't be until 2025 I believe.

Yeah I seen it. I was up at 4 am and was out at 530 am heading to a deer stand. by then it was very far west in the sky and a different color

[tron777]

Oh... did anyone besides me happen to see the lunar eclipse this morning? It was pretty cool seeing the red moon too. Next one won't be until 2025 I believe.

Yeah I seen it. I was up at 4 am and was out at 530 am heading to a deer stand. by then it was very far west in the sky and a different color

Having any luck this year? My Brother hasn't had as much time to go as he used too (3 kids will do that to you LOL), but he's killed one young doe so far. Good eater for meat. No big bucks or anything yet. The cold air coming up plus it being November should get the rut going in our area down here I would think. So once the cold gets to you Charles, I would assume the same?

[tron777]

12Z Euro still holds hope... 0.34" at CVG from Nicole on Friday.

[Bgoney]

Weekly LaNina from cpc . Region 3.4 down slightly again with 1.2 remaining steady. Expect peak to be occurring now or next week , then more or less holding steady for a few more after that , we still have that cold water in region 1.2 to move through. Changes I see are that the easterly anomalies have weakened the past week or 2 as models predicted.

The big SOI drop that is happening right now is also of interest. I wonder if some storminess in the STJ is coming down the road or a sign the Nina maybe is peaking?


SOI.PNG

Yea I couldn't tell you where I've read it before, but that kind of swing in such large numbers , pos to neg, could mean a storm in the southern stream

[tron777]

Weekly LaNina from cpc . Region 3.4 down slightly again with 1.2 remaining steady. Expect peak to be occurring now or next week , then more or less holding steady for a few more after that , we still have that cold water in region 1.2 to move through. Changes I see are that the easterly anomalies have weakened the past week or 2 as models predicted.

The big SOI drop that is happening right now is also of interest. I wonder if some storminess in the STJ is coming down the road or a sign the Nina maybe is peaking?


SOI.PNG

Yea I couldn't tell you where I've read it before, but that kind of swing in such large numbers , pos to neg, could mean a storm in the southern stream

I've read the same thing. I don't quite remember the lag time. Maybe 10-14 days? So something maybe around the Thanksgiving time frame could be a-brewin'. Hope the cold air is still close by and not back to a more typical zonal flow. Time will tell...

[MVWxObserver]

Snow and ice may keep voter turnout low in the battleground state of Nevada where candidate Adam Laxalt is e.g.

Currently 55 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

For the entire area: (I'd extend it into Thursday too!)

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY...

Southeast winds of 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph can be
expected on Wednesday. In addition, low relative humidity will
occur once again. These conditions combined with dry vegetation
will result in another day of elevated fire danger on Wednesday.

Any fires that start could spread and become out of control. Due
to these conditions, outdoor burning is not recommended.

[tron777]

The OP models are struggling bad with the timing and interaction of the front and Nicole. on Friday. 18Z NAM is East and gives CVG 0.03" and the 18Z GFS came back West giving us 0.37" (Showed 0.13" 12Z run) It's just a wait and see game guys.

[tron777]

37 here this morning. Looks like the models are back on the rain train again for Friday.

6Z NAM - 0.17"
6Z GFS - 0.99"
6Z Euro - 0.35"

So with that stated, it is correct to go with rain likely for CVG Land. There will be a sharp cut off west of us and more rain will fall east of us. I will fore cast 0.25" or less in our NW. 0.25 to 0.50" for CVG Land. 1" plus for SE / Eastern counties. I will adjust this call if need be but I think this looks good.

[tron777]

[cloudy72]

Big uptick along I-75 corridor per 12z NAM. Still very sharp cutoff to the west.

[cloudy72]

Dropped to 35 here this AM. Got the leaves chopped up and raked yesterday.

[tron777]

37 was my low, CVG 41. 2 nice days to go before some rain and cold air arrives. BG brought up a system for Tues of next week that bears watching. This is the keep one eye open system that I had mentioned before. GFS, CMC, and Euro all show this system in one form or another.

We're getting busy folks! Nicole's rains, cold air and a system on Tues of next week to keep an eye on. I love it!

[tron777]

Should that Tuesday system pan out for CVG and give us measurable snow... Matt's guess for 11/16 will win part 1 of this year's contest. So we've got that up for grabs too coming up.

[BookNerdCarp]

Should that Tuesday system pan out for CVG and give us measurable snow... Matt's guess for 11/16 will win part 1 of this year's contest. So we've got that up for grabs too coming up.

Big money...no whammy!

[tron777]

Whammy.gif

[tron777]

12Z GFS really gets Nicole more West on this run taking the center across FL then back into the Gulf then into the FL Panhandle like near Tallahassee. Then the front / trough captures her and slings it north. Low tracks up the East side of the apps basically. CVG gets 1.24" of rain out of the deal on Friday. Lighter NW / Heavier SE is the game plan with this system for sure as far as rainfall distribution goes but I'm not going that high for CVG. Too much uncertainty yet in the data.

[tron777]

12Z GFS continues the theme of a more robust looking system for Tues of next week. The good news.. more moisture. The bad news... threat of rain and precip type issues get involved. Still... TONS of time to keep one eye open on this one which I will obviously be doing.

[tron777]

12Z Euro gives CVG 0.83" of rain so a nice increase from the Euro for Friday's system / Nicole leftovers. Then for Tues of next week, the model is not phased with the energy so a weaker system. Light rain ending as a few flakes kind of deal being shown.

[young pup]

I'm looking forward to any rain over the .25 inch mark here. 12z models are showing about 1.5 for here. Seen the snow for next week too. Not even ready for that. We are going to go from one extreme to another I have feeling.

[tron777]

I'm looking forward to any rain over the .25 inch mark here. 12z models are showing about 1.5 for here. Seen the snow for next week too. Not even ready for that. We are going to go from one extreme to another I have feeling.

That's how we roll, JP!

[MVWxObserver]

I'm looking forward to any rain over the .25 inch mark here. 12z models are showing about 1.5 for here. Seen the snow for next week too. Not even ready for that. We are going to go from one extreme to another I have feeling.

Same here Bro

Currently 57 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

The tropics have really helped to alter the hemispheric pattern. Remember Martin? It caused the NAO to go negative when it tracked towards Iceland. Major EPO ridging as well developing over AK some -4 to -5 STD! Major cold air coming for the time of year and a potentially prolonged pattern as well. We also have Scand. ridging pressing up against the PV along with the AK ridging stretching it out. So the cold air has to dump southward. No other choice. Nice to see more signs of +PNA as well for a while anyway. MJO in Phase 8 as of 11/7. Models show it going into the COD then re-emerging into phases 6/7. That would indicate a mild period leading to Thanksgiving and beyond. However, I keep seeing cold on a lot of the data. EPS even into early Dec looks decent. So something is muting the MJO (or it's weak or in COD)... OR the models will bust with the lingering cold. We'll see here because if the cold lingers and keeps repeating, maybe winter is showing it's hand like a true classic La Nina for a nice December. Wouldn't that be refreshing? No clue, but we'll find out together folks.