Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Whew, this lengthy stretch of "getter done weather" is wearing me out . I'll have to take a few vacation days here pretty soon.

The fantasy range is looking more active as a more typical Nina pattern may soon be beginning. Thinking around the last week of October or so, the jet should start to come into the Pacific NW more with storms working their way across the north drawing up Gulf moisture for us as they cross thru the region. We warm up ahead of the front and cool down behind it. Although I must say, the cold shots are impressive for the time of year! Let's see how this idea looks once we get thru about the middle of the month. Until then, +PNA supreme and even some -NAO blocking for next week too!

[tron777]

Good morning! Very mild and breezy this morning as temps are in that 55 to 60 degree range. Clouds and a few showers as well. Not much going on until we see how much sun we get this afternoon ahead of the front. Prime Time for any strong to isolated severe development is 4-10pm. Best location is along and SE of I-71 per SPC's latest map.

[tron777]

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

It's raining here as in leaves due to the strong wind gusts. I'm sure many of you are seeing this. Meanwhile showers to the west, and scattered storms over Central KY lifting NE. SE of I-71 for the best storm action still looking like a good call.

[Bgoney]

Might be some hail in the cell east of Mt. Olivet

Screenshot_20221012-152806_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

Looking interesting for Adams Co as well. Winds to 40 and 50 mph and half dollar hail are possible. Just below severe limits currently but if it pulses up some more then well...

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

So far everything is going according to plan with the best storm action in our SE. Some sun here right now as we await to see if anything can pop or not this evening ahead of the front.

[tron777]

Hey Tim.... got to hand it to you! ILN now has us in the U40s Tues of next week. Lows Wed morning in the 20s so the growing season 100% over with by then if correct.

[young pup]

I'm expecting very little in the rain department. Maybe quarter of an inch. As Les posted earlier I too had raining leaves. Blew them off one yard and the wind brought more down. Job security. Probably no cutting next week. as these yards are drier than normal for this time of year.

[tron777]

I'm expecting very little in the rain department. Maybe quarter of an inch. As Les posted earlier I too had raining leaves. Blew them off one yard and the wind brought more down. Job security. Probably no cutting next week. as these yards are drier than normal for this time of year.

Whenever I grind leaves for the first time, it'll be more leaves then grass. Very dusty too.

[young pup]

I'm expecting very little in the rain department. Maybe quarter of an inch. As Les posted earlier I too had raining leaves. Blew them off one yard and the wind brought more down. Job security. Probably no cutting next week. as these yards are drier than normal for this time of year.

Whenever I grind leaves for the first time, it'll be more leaves then grass. Very dusty too.

Oh yes. I felt like I was pig pen at the end of today.

[tron777]

Rain prospects aren't good per radar that is for sure. We may see a few showers late Sat into Sun with the next system but those chances also look low. Then we are cold next week. We'll see what happens after that. I think in the longer term, once the +PNA relaxes, we are seeing signs of -PNA sometime later this month. That should open the Gulf back up and have cold fronts dragging up moisture with them as they approach versus dry and little to work with and dropping in from the NW, like we have now. I am thinking last week of Oct, we should transition to that.

EDIT: PNA forecast below from GEFS:

pna.gefs.sprd2.png

[cloudy72]

0.10” here with a couple rumbles of thunder. First rain since 9/24.

[MVWxObserver]

Less than a tenth in my gauge. I went ahead and brought my gauge inside the garage and put it on the workbench. Realistically not expecting that much more anyway with this system up my way.

[MVWxObserver]

1927 UNK 4 E MOUNT OLIVET ROBERTSON KY 3853 8397 TREES DOWN ON US ROUTE 62 JUST WEST OF SARDIS. DAMAGE TO A BARN ROOF. (ILN)

2120 100 4 ENE COAL GROVE LAWRENCE OH 3852 8258 QUARTER SIZED HAIL OBSERVED. (RLX)

2205 UNK 1 NE FLAT CREEK BATH KY 3815 8386 CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 1 NE FLAT CREEK. TREE DOWN ALONG FLAT CREEK ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (JKL)

2208 UNK 1 WSW KNOB LICK METCALFE KY 3708 8570 TREES REPORTED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF KNOB LICK ROAD AND SULPHUR WELL KNOB LICK ROAD. (LMK)

2213 UNK REYNOLDSVILLE BATH KY 3819 8382 CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM REYNOLDSVILLE. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO A BARN AND AN OUTBUILDING IN THE REYNOLDSVILLE AREA. (JKL)

2218 UNK ODESSA BATH KY 3822 8375 CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM ODESSA. TREES DOWN ALONG WHITE OAK ROAD OFF OF HIGHWAY 36. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (JKL)

2221 UNK 2 NW ODESSA BATH KY 3824 8379 CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 2 NW ODESSA. TREES DOWN ALONG EAST FORK ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (JKL)

[tpweather]

Good Morning and finally I got lucky with the rain. A storm last evening and another quick bout around 3am with very strong winds. Total for both 0.42. I will take anything at this point. What a day for the leaves yesterday and we had just raked them on Tuesday and the whole back yard was covered by Wednesday afternoon. Peak is well past my house with some trees already bare. Last year at this time the trees were barely turning color. I still believe mother nature is telling us something and that is an earlier start to winter than we have saw in recent years. Saw the first wooly worm yesterday and back at the front and then all brown.

[tron777]

Myself and CVG - 0.01" just a ground wetter this morning. Still no appreciable rains here since 9/25.

[tron777]

Our next system continues to look weak rain wise Sat night into Sun morning. Cold is the bigger story for next week. Tim's 40s on Tuesday still looks good as well as dropping below freezing even at CVG for the first time by Wed morning of next week.

[tpweather]

Another brief shower moving through at the moment. Will not produce much but I will take every drop. The leaves have covered the back yard but the problem is the winds will be gusty the next few days and always a pain to rake when the wind is blowing. Fire danger and we don't see that a lot in this part of the world but with the recent dry weather and the leaves changing and some strong gusty winds over the next few days conditions are there for a few flare ups. Concerning longer term and I will have my thoughts later today once I do some homework lol.

[tron777]

Def waiting until the wind calms down as well for leaf grinding. Maybe this weekend? We'll see... got football to watch!

[tpweather]

Def waiting until the wind calms down as well for leaf grinding. Maybe this weekend? We'll see... got football to watch!

Lol and that is my thought process as well. Football first, leaves not even a close second.

[tpweather]

Looking further down the road and models are starting to disagree once we get past mid-week. The gfs wants to continue with another shot of cold air late next week while the Euro and CMC are giving us more of a zonal flow. A couple of things will influence the outcome. First the AO and NAO are predicted to be negative this weekend and early next week and we get the nice cold shot. After that do both of these head towards neutral or even positive and will we get a storm system to finally hit the west coast. I am leaning towards the Euro/CMC at the moment which would bring us milder air and then a more active storm pattern. Mid-October through early Dec is our second sort of wet/severe season and not every year has tons of rain or any severe weather but what I am seeing long term is no doubt a better shot of rain and again no way to predict severe weather that far out in the future. I believe these two things happen if the storms start coming into the pacific northwest and the AO and NAO get into the neutral or positive range. I really want to those get into that range as snow was early in Siberia and parts of eastern Canada but has sort of stalled. We need the AO and NAO to remain in the neutral or positive range the next several weeks and this will allow more snow to fall in the northern areas of the globe and then once you get past early November very little melting will happen up there. So yes I am expecting a milder November and that is fine with me because even when you have cold Novembers its hard to get snow and if it does snow it usually melts away in a couple of days. I love Dec and Jan snows because many times the snow is on the ground for a few weeks.