Absolute Vorticity

Les one thing that could have my forecast bust is Earl. Yes as Earl moves northeast the heaviest rains with the low in the GOM may be further east and that is something I need to look at. Last week Earl was just sitting there and the flow was perfect into our area. So I will watch this and one thing I have noticed is the rainfall in the GOM moved further east overnight. Still to early and want to see where exactly the low in the GOM forms and sometimes the low itself can be displaced from the heaviest rains. The bad thing here in Greenville is the rainfall looks to be heavy and 2-5 inches seems very likely.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 8:24 am Les one thing that could have my forecast bust is Earl. Yes as Earl moves northeast the heaviest rains with the low in the GOM may be further east and that is something I need to look at. Last week Earl was just sitting there and the flow was perfect into our area. So I will watch this and one thing I have noticed is the rainfall in the GOM moved further east overnight. Still to early and want to see where exactly the low in the GOM forms and sometimes the low itself can be displaced from the heaviest rains. The bad thing here in Greenville is the rainfall looks to be heavy and 2-5 inches seems very likely.

Def Tim... you'll get hit good in Greenville as is per the norm. That gulf low won't have time to develop into anything but it's track is key for Saturday's chances as well as how much Gulf moisture can it inject into the pattern? Also, do we get any moisture from Kay in the East Pac?

What a wonderful day down here in Greenville. Temp mid-upper 70's with dew points in the low 60's and a northeast wind nearing 15mph. Probably the nicest day since sometime in May. Of course getting this nice brief cool spell is just going to add the amount of rainfall when warm tropical air from both the GOM and Atlantic flow over the somewhat cooler air plus some uplift from the mountains is going to make it a very wet weekend. Got the grass mowed today and almost nice with the currrent weather.

71 / 60 with a NE wind at 12 at CVG per the 11am reading. A C of C type of day for sure in all areas!

The biggest change from the 12Z GFS comes for next week. For now, still scattered chances Sat, likely on Sun then for next week, the upper low passes by to the north so Cincy is dry and the lingering showers would be an I-70 Crew zone issue. We'll see how that shakes out later. Keeping showers in Mon - Wed of next week for all areas at this time.

Not ready for summer to end? Not to fear! GFS to the rescue! It has (what I hope is) summer's last gasp week after next with a bunch of 80s and even a 90 possible.

Hey Les and we are still seeing things somewhat different. I still expect more coverage on Saturday. One thing I noticed is the model is keeping the rainfall further east on Saturday which imo gives the local area a much better shot of getting into the .5-1 inch range. Then Sunday with the front expect wave two from the northwest to head in here. Later Mon-Wed has always been a more spotty shower forecast to begin with and depending where the upper low is located will determine if we remain in the area of spotty showers or like you mentioned to the north. So the models today did not change my forecast with 1-2 inches but folks west of here may not have as much rainfall on Saturday so folks in Indy and Louisville and to the west. Again still 36 hours to we really see the exact placement of the first wave but I do believe it comes further north quicker than some of the models.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 1:25 pm Not ready for summer to end? Not to fear! GFS to the rescue! It has (what I hope is) summer's last gasp week after next with a bunch of 80s and even a 90 possible.

I called for cooler wx after mid month and it's going to be the opposite. Oh well... better now then in December like last year!

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 1:28 pm Hey Les and we are still seeing things somewhat different. I still expect more coverage on Saturday. One thing I noticed is the model is keeping the rainfall further east on Saturday which imo gives the local area a much better shot of getting into the .5-1 inch range. Then Sunday with the front expect wave two from the northwest to head in here. Later Mon-Wed has always been a more spotty shower forecast to begin with and depending where the upper low is located will determine if we remain in the area of spotty showers or like you mentioned to the north. So the models today did not change my forecast with 1-2 inches but folks west of here may not have as much rainfall on Saturday so folks in Indy and Louisville and to the west. Again still 36 hours to we really see the exact placement of the first wave but I do believe it comes further north quicker than some of the models.

12Z Euro actually keeps CVG dry on Sat. I'll stick with my current call of course with 30-40% chances. Better chances to me still come Sun afternoon and evening.

The Euro is agreeing with the GFS with regards to passing the upper low much further north so Tues onwards is dry next week. This is a refreshing change in the guidance should this be correct. Still like my 1" or less rainfall call for this next event also.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:40 pm The Euro is agreeing with the GFS with regards to passing the upper low much further north so Tues onwards is dry next week. This is a refreshing change in the guidance should this be correct. Still like my 1" or less rainfall call for this next event also.

I agree with that part of the forecast. Upper lows so hard to predict this far out but I can see where this upper low manages to hook up with the jet stream on Monday and may be pushed well to the north and east.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:06 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:40 pm The Euro is agreeing with the GFS with regards to passing the upper low much further north so Tues onwards is dry next week. This is a refreshing change in the guidance should this be correct. Still like my 1" or less rainfall call for this next event also.

I agree with that part of the forecast. Upper lows so hard to predict this far out but I can see where this upper low manages to hook up with the jet stream on Monday and may be pushed well to the north and east.

I think a couple of things here... the +PNA pattern or ridge out West is breaking down quicker then originally expected so that will also help as the heat moves East to kick the upper low out. Also, the blocking to the north isn't as strong as once projected so the low is tracking further north as a result.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:54 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:06 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:40 pm The Euro is agreeing with the GFS with regards to passing the upper low much further north so Tues onwards is dry next week. This is a refreshing change in the guidance should this be correct. Still like my 1" or less rainfall call for this next event also.

I agree with that part of the forecast. Upper lows so hard to predict this far out but I can see where this upper low manages to hook up with the jet stream on Monday and may be pushed well to the north and east.

I think a couple of things here... the +PNA pattern or ridge out West is breaking down quicker then originally expected so that will also help as the heat moves East to kick the upper low out. Also, the blocking to the north isn't as strong as once projected so the low is tracking further north as a result.

I agree Les. My part of the forecast on Saturday will probably either be a hit or a bust to my overall forecast. I just believe the first round of rain that arrives can dump a good .5-1inch of rain. I may be looking at the pattern dead wrong and may need to change if the models don't start heading my way but at this moment I still believe a good first dose of rain and then a break until probably Sunday afternoon when we start getting the rain with the front.

Looking further into the future it looks like the pacific northwest will be getting a trough to build in and this should expand the ridge further east. So this should start to bring above normal temps into the area and this should yield 80's for several days and could get a 90 if everything falls in place. Should be much drier as well.

Starting to see the low pressure get itself together near New Orleans. This time of year tons of moisture and does not take much for the gulf of mexico moisture to ramp up. Expect by this time on Friday and nice area of rain heading north towards the Tn and Ohio valleys. At the same time moisture from the Atlantic will be heading into the Carolina's and even moisture from the eastern GOM will be sending moisture that way.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:01 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:54 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:06 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:40 pm The Euro is agreeing with the GFS with regards to passing the upper low much further north so Tues onwards is dry next week. This is a refreshing change in the guidance should this be correct. Still like my 1" or less rainfall call for this next event also.

I agree with that part of the forecast. Upper lows so hard to predict this far out but I can see where this upper low manages to hook up with the jet stream on Monday and may be pushed well to the north and east.

I think a couple of things here... the +PNA pattern or ridge out West is breaking down quicker then originally expected so that will also help as the heat moves East to kick the upper low out. Also, the blocking to the north isn't as strong as once projected so the low is tracking further north as a result.

I agree Les. My part of the forecast on Saturday will probably either be a hit or a bust to my overall forecast. I just believe the first round of rain that arrives can dump a good .5-1inch of rain. I may be looking at the pattern dead wrong and may need to change if the models don't start heading my way but at this moment I still believe a good first dose of rain and then a break until probably Sunday afternoon when we start getting the rain with the front.

Absolutely! If we see over 50% coverage on Sat you got me. I'll be in the car all day but still.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:22 pm Looking further into the future it looks like the pacific northwest will be getting a trough to build in and this should expand the ridge further east. So this should start to bring above normal temps into the area and this should yield 80's for several days and could get a 90 if everything falls in place. Should be much drier as well.

The contest is still open thru 9/30 so anything can happen in that dept. Def see a lot of low and mid 80s certainly, that's a given. 5 to 10 degrees above avg isn't awful but can flirt with 90 as you said. Record highs in early Sept. are still around 100 then drop into the mid to upper 90s range. 93 is the "coolest" 90 degree day record high for this month. That would take a drought and that isn't happening of course.

Some cold weather stats since we have warmth coming up. We have to counteract Trev's Heat Miser here a little bit.

Our earliest sub 40 degree low was on 9/14, 1964 with a low of 37 degrees. On the 11th back in 1993 CVG hit 40, but that isn't sub 40, so Our earliest low of 32 was set back on 9/28, 1942.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:34 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:22 pm Looking further into the future it looks like the pacific northwest will be getting a trough to build in and this should expand the ridge further east. So this should start to bring above normal temps into the area and this should yield 80's for several days and could get a 90 if everything falls in place. Should be much drier as well.

The contest is still open thru 9/30 so anything can happen in that dept. Def see a lot of low and mid 80s certainly, that's a given. 5 to 10 degrees above avg isn't awful but can flirt with 90 as you said. Record highs in early Sept. are still around 100 then drop into the mid to upper 90s range. 93 is the "coolest" 90 degree day record high for this month. That would take a drought and that isn't happening of course.

Les the only way I see a 90 is with a strong cold front and we have a full day just south of that with strong southerly winds. Just running out of daylight and also we usually see 90's with a drought or at least drier ground and that is not the case this year.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:44 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:34 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:22 pm Looking further into the future it looks like the pacific northwest will be getting a trough to build in and this should expand the ridge further east. So this should start to bring above normal temps into the area and this should yield 80's for several days and could get a 90 if everything falls in place. Should be much drier as well.

The contest is still open thru 9/30 so anything can happen in that dept. Def see a lot of low and mid 80s certainly, that's a given. 5 to 10 degrees above avg isn't awful but can flirt with 90 as you said. Record highs in early Sept. are still around 100 then drop into the mid to upper 90s range. 93 is the "coolest" 90 degree day record high for this month. That would take a drought and that isn't happening of course.

Les the only way I see a 90 is with a strong cold front and we have a full day just south of that with strong southerly winds. Just running out of daylight and also we usually see 90's with a drought or at least drier ground and that is not the case this year.

Totally agree and if we hit 90, severe weather ahead of said front???

Good Morning. Happy Friday and also for Les its just about vacation time. Over the past couple of days the models needed to catch up to me or I needed to catch up to them. Looks like I am catching up to them as no doubt rain totals looks to be lower than I expected. Les your forecast looks great and I am headed your way. Instead of the .5-1 inch on Saturday it looks like less than .25 for most folks and then later Sunday into early Monday is when we get the heaviest rain and that could add another .50-.75. So most folks will end up with 1 inch or less. Even the totals down here in Greenville have come down as they expected 2-5 over the weekend and that is down in the 1-2 inch range. The upper low should remain north of us until about Tuesday though we can get an isolated shower and temps rather cool. End of next week looks great with mild temps and dry conditions. Starting next weekend warmer temps should happen as we get back into a more summer like pattern for several days. Rooting for the dry conditions next week as I need to take care of some outdoor work and with the temps in check should be a great week for working outside.

Thanks Tim and good morning to you and to all of our posters! Another nice morning 59 here attm! Low 80s or so today so will get the yard cut. Leaving at 5am Saturday morning so will be busy today getting everything packed up. For you all... Sunday is the best day for rainfall. After Monday you are lovely with 70s for highs and 50s for lows thru Thurs of next week. 80s return as the cool high moves away. In short, the warmth is coming back when I do it appears.

Same summer pattern continues on with the Beneficial monsoon season rolling on with special Kay visiting that region the next few days and more rains beyond. A mix of Periodic cool fronts and warmer temps for is. Wet along the gulf and SE coast .

Not much change from the 12Z GFS. I think we've got the forecast for the next 7-10 days pretty much in hand. Scattered Sat, likely Sunday, lingering Monday then good to go for the rest of the week.