Absolute Vorticity

snowbo wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 12:42 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 11:30 am

Sargent51 wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 11:20 amHBD Les!

Thank you Sir!

Oh my...is someone having a birthday? If so, happy birthday Les and thanks for all you do!!

Happy Birthday Les!!!

Bo / Mike: Thank you both!

First band of rain is working into the region now in a weakening state. A few mod downpours possible. Then you can see the second round to the west of that activity that will be working its way in here later tonight into tomorrow morning. Then we'll see a third round Fri afternoon and evening into Sat morning. Models have picked up speed a bit moving the rain out potentially now by midday Saturday. Earlier NW later in the SE as far as timing does for your location. FINGERS CROSSED this is a trend.

Some light rain here with 0.06" so far.

Only a high of 63 here today with a T of rainfall. Only seen some light sprinkle activity so far.

HAPPY 46TH LES AND I HOPE THAT YOU'RE ENJOYING YOUR SPECIAL DAY, WXBUDDY!!

Thank you for everything that you do for our AV Community Family, bro!!

Also for your forecasts / analysis along with so many other talented members here!

Looking forward to those 80s for next week as finally some honest-to-goodness t-shirt and shorts weather!

Currently 54 here in Greenville.

Thank you Eric! I appreciate it and thank you too for your loyalty to all of our forums over the years.

0.02" here and 59 degrees currently. London / Seattle like weather lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 7:40 pm Thank you Eric! I appreciate it and thank you too for your loyalty to all of our forums over the years.

0.02" here and 59 degrees currently. London / Seattle like weather lol

Thank you very much, Les, and you're quite welcome!

Heavy downpour here now - up to 0.30”

Happy Birthday Les. Sorry I did not see this earlier. Hope you had a wonderful bday and thank you as always for being the leader of this wonderful forum.

Picked up .32" for Thurs.

Happy belated birthday, my friend! You’re a good man and a good friend. We’ve been through a lot over the years sir!

Thanks for your continued dedication to keeping things going over here.

Tim and Trev..,. thank you both so much! Thank you Trev for paying the bills and for you Tim for being such a great friend and lover of weather on our forum. And yes Trev... it wasn't long ago that we met at a storm spotter class and again at BW3's if you recall. We need to get together again! Been too long, Sir.

I've picked up 1.27" of rain and counting since midnight with a flood advisory also in effect around here locally until 8:45 this morning. Plenty of mod to heavy rain around this morning but a break is coming. It will be short lived. Next MCS comes in this afternoon and evening to promote more heavy rain and strong storms. If enough heating is realized then isolated severe storms may occur as well. Sat is gloomy, light rain and drizzle esp in the morning. An improving Mothers Day then here comes summer all of next week / next weekend too.

Storm total here of 0.80” so far

In terms of the "heat" next week, models are beginning to come down on the numbers some. This is due to our upper low on Sat, dropping SE towards the SE Coast, getting into the Gulf Stream, then retrograding back to the West. It is getting close enough now to influence temps. Lower 80s maybe now at best. Not seeing those Upper 80s anymore. Second, if it gets even closer, rain / storms would need to be introduced into the forecast. That is a possibility but will leave next week dry for now until we see how this plays out. Def seeing an impact though on temps!

Also wanna mention the dews... I don't see it being humid next week unless the upper low gets closer to bring in moisture for rain. As long as that doesn't happen, our flow will be easterly off of the Apps. So a drying wind, dews should actually drop. We'd get 50s to near 60 for lows and U70s to lower 80s for highs. That is good summer weather to me not that 90s garbage.

Sorry for being a chatterbox this morning, but since folks have outdoor plans on Sat, the timing of the upper lows departure is getting better esp for those in our Western counties. Even the Euro shuts the rain down at CVG by 8am and by midday now in the East so a better forecast. Still cool with the clouds but the upper low doesn't look to linger all day long at this time as it once looked like it was going to do. We'll see how 12Z looks today to tweak it. Love that trend though. I'll be happy and so will Joe.

And finally... for today...

As one area of rain exits... the next one you can see on radar over St. Louis with the leading edge of it already producing scattered t-storms over Western KY. That is coming for us this afternoon and evening. We've received as a whole, 1-3" of rain area wide thus far with more to come. Certainly if t-storms get involved, another inch plus is possible. Now, we're getting to the point where more localized flooding is possible to go along with the isolated severe threat. Watching to see where the triple point sets up.

BG Oaks Day StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/05/06/stormt ... s-edition/

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 7:17 am Sorry for being a chatterbox this morning, but since folks have outdoor plans on Sat, the timing of the upper lows departure is getting better esp for those in our Western counties. Even the Euro shuts the rain down at CVG by 8am and by midday now in the East so a better forecast. Still cool with the clouds but the upper low doesn't look to linger all day long at this time as it once looked like it was going to do. We'll see how 12Z looks today to tweak it. Love that trend though. I'll be happy and so will Joe.

Yep Les, BTW happy belated BDay!
If this comes true then we'll be outdoors tomorrow afternoon, but the grass may still be a little wet. A high in the upper 50's to around 60 may not feel too bad if the winds aren't bad? Looks like I'll be able to get some outside work done after work next week, I have so much to do that I don't even know where to start. Lol

.6" here

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 8:53 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 7:17 am Sorry for being a chatterbox this morning, but since folks have outdoor plans on Sat, the timing of the upper lows departure is getting better esp for those in our Western counties. Even the Euro shuts the rain down at CVG by 8am and by midday now in the East so a better forecast. Still cool with the clouds but the upper low doesn't look to linger all day long at this time as it once looked like it was going to do. We'll see how 12Z looks today to tweak it. Love that trend though. I'll be happy and so will Joe.

Yep Les, BTW happy belated BDay!
If this comes true then we'll be outdoors tomorrow afternoon, but the grass may still be a little wet. A high in the upper 50's to around 60 may not feel too bad if the winds aren't bad? Looks like I'll be able to get some outside work done after work next week, I have so much to do that I don't even know where to start. Lol

Thanks Joe! 6Z Euro took a step in the wrong direction. We'll see how the 12Z suite behaves soon.

These cut-off lows are such a pita. Saturdays is a toss-up. Atm I think the morning is gross, drizzle and coolish. The afternoon is 50/50 on on clouds and spotty drizzle or just clouds. The evening we may see some sunny breaks.

Flood Watch just issued from the boys...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1020 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022

KYZ091>093-OHZ046-053>056-061>065-070>072-077>080-062230-
/O.NEW.KILN.FA.A.0004.220506T1420Z-220507T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-DELAWARE-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-
CLINTON-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LANCASTER, OAKBROOK, BLANCHESTER, DELAWARE,
MIDDLETOWN, FAIRFIELD, NEWARK, COVINGTON, BURLINGTON, SPRINGBORO,
PLAIN CITY, HILLSBORO, SPRINGFIELD, GEORGETOWN, COLUMBUS,
CIRCLEVILLE, DAYTON, ERLANGER, WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE, HAMILTON,
INDEPENDENCE, FAIRBORN, OXFORD, KETTERING, WILMINGTON, WEST
JEFFERSON, XENIA, NEWPORT, MOUNT ORAB, MASON, PICKERINGTON,
ALEXANDRIA, CINCINNATI, GREENFIELD, LEBANON, MILFORD, LONDON,
BEAVERCREEK, AND FLORENCE
1020 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022

..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* WHAT...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

* WHERE...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND OHIO, INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES, IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY, BOONE, CAMPBELL AND
KENTON. IN OHIO, BROWN, BUTLER, CLARK, CLERMONT, CLINTON,
DELAWARE, FAIRFIELD, FAYETTE OH, FRANKLIN OH, GREENE, HAMILTON,
HIGHLAND, LICKING, MADISON, MONTGOMERY, PICKAWAY AND WARREN.

* WHEN...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF RIVERS,
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER AND BE
PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OCCUR
OR A FLASH FLOOD WARNING BE ISSUED. AVOID LOW-LYING AREAS AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES.