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Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 10:25 am
by tpweather
Bgoney,great post about the Polar Vortex. I need to look back over the years and see when a major disruption happens and doe the phase of the mjo and strength have any correlation to this happening. The mjo has been in the COD for about 3 weeks and the Australian model is trying to move it into phase 3 later this month. Other models have done poorly with the mjo and over the years I only use this model though it can have problems like most models but imo by far the best in predicting future phases. If this is true then any long term mild spell is not in the works for several weeks.
Heading towards mid-Feb and again the STJ tends to pick as we head towards spring. This imo should help in forming some bigger systems the next few weeks. First chance looks to be this weekend or early the following week. Les is doing a great job with the models on how they are trying to handle the pattern and if the 2 jets meet up then getting a big storm should not be a problem.
So yes it is a little boring at the moment but after the recent ice event boring is okay for a short period to sort of clean up the mess.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 10:59 am
by airwolf76
dont see much action on my 10 day forecast . a real snoozefest
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 11:25 am
by fyrfyter
Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 9:12 am
Was finally able to de-glacierize my car. Sheesh. That was a task. Surprised the scraper held up. I was worried it was going to snap
I snapped mine clearing the car off yesterday. Ended up using a putty knife on it. Bought a replacement that is a monster!! It’s all they had left!
9E9DD4E6-1794-42A5-8BA6-97F056C85D94.jpeg
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 11:37 am
by tron777
Not much on the 12Z GFS to talk about over the next week and change. Still progressive and no phasing to spin up a big storm.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 12:02 pm
by tron777
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 11:37 am
Not much on the 12Z GFS to talk about over the next week and change. Still progressive and no phasing to spin up a big storm.
Ditto that with the CMC today.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 2:02 pm
by tron777
Some clipper action on Fri per the Euro.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 2:33 pm
by tpweather
Nice slow thaw this week and that is great news. No big rainfall expected and with a slow thaw creeks and rivers can handle the runoff.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 2:47 pm
by tron777
40 here today. Top part of the driveway that is in the sun is almost down to the pavement. It'll be spring until the bottom half is unthawed since it is shaded.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 4:34 pm
by tron777
41 here today, 38 now. Watch for re-freeze tomorrow morning for the AM Commute. I'd watch for it every morning this week to be honest.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 4:58 pm
by Bgoney
36 for a high here . A beautiful day
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 7:30 pm
by MVWxObserver
Currently 28 here in G'ville and progged for around 18 on Mon morning.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 7:41 pm
by airwolf76
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 11:37 am
Not much on the 12Z GFS to talk about over the next week and change. Still progressive and no phasing to spin up a big storm.
a " fabulous february" is gonna turn out to be a joke from what i can see
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 7:53 pm
by tron777
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 7:41 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 11:37 am
Not much on the 12Z GFS to talk about over the next week and change. Still progressive and no phasing to spin up a big storm.
a " fabulous february" is gonna turn out to be a joke from what i can see
Looks quiet and boring attm for sure. We'll see.... you never know when something might pop up. I'd give the Fri clipper or SB Weekend systems until Tues or Wed before punting those. Something in that period still has time to come back should the proper timing of the shortwaves actually have a chance.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:28 am
by tron777
Good morning! Watch out for freezing fog this morning on the AM drive. Temps in the 20s with fog is not good. Also watch out for re-freeze and black ice too. We will warm into the mid and upper 30s this afternoon so the slow thaw out continues! I will keep sprinkles / flurries into the forecast with a Fri clipper ending early Sat. Then dry and cold for the Super Bowl. That's the current look should the SB weekend storm not come back. It is likely turning into a Fri clipper instead. We will watch it!
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:03 am
by tron777
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:29 am
by tpweather
Good Morning and a nice cold and frosty morning. Listen to Brian's discussion this morning and he hit everything we talked about this weekend concerning the upcoming pattern and we are on the same page which is a good. No long term warming especially if the mjo gets into phase 3 which is no doubt a colder phase for us in Feb and March. The clipper system this week and especially the one later Friday. If that one stays strong and further south we may get some snow showers here late Friday and Saturday but if that happens then it would no doubt keep any southern system well to the south and east. If that clipper is weaker and further north this gives the southern system a chance to develop earlier plus with heights out front a little higher we would need to watch this one though at the moment that seems unlikely but this fast systems can all of a sudden develop with little help from the models. Can the two get together and as we know all about timing and with a faster northwest flow really hard but something to look at for sure. He does believe the extended looks to have the trough over the east centered a little further west later in the month. Of course that brings the southeast more into play but also brings the path of storms closer to us.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:31 am
by tpweather
tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:29 am
Good Morning and a nice cold and frosty morning. Listen to Brian's discussion this morning and he hit everything we talked about this weekend concerning the upcoming pattern and we are on the same page which is a good. No long term warming especially if the mjo gets into phase 3 which is no doubt a colder phase for us in Feb and March. The clipper system this week and especially the one later Friday. If that one stays strong and further south we may get some snow showers here late Friday and Saturday but if that happens then it would no doubt keep any southern system well to the south and east. If that clipper is weaker and further north this gives the southern system a chance to develop earlier plus with heights out front a little higher we would need to watch this one though at the moment that seems unlikely but this fast systems can all of a sudden develop with little help from the models. Can the two get together and as we know all about timing and with a faster northwest flow really hard but something to look at for sure. He does believe the extended looks to have the trough over the east centered a little further west later in the month. Of course that brings the southeast ridge more into play but also brings the path of storms closer to us.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:48 am
by tron777
Even if the Fri or weekend doesn't pan out, there are more chances def showing up in the extended. I see two more chances thru President's Day.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:20 pm
by airwolf76
I guess we still have a chance but it does not look like any of the telliconnections are in our favor. they arent horrible but not great either. i think in general this month of February is going to be a mystery. my guess is we will end up pretty average as far as temps and snowfall till its all said and done but just a hunch for now
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:35 pm
by winterstormjoe
I'm just wondering about the dump of Arctic air around the 18th - 20th and what happens with the phasing with it as it looks like there will be a big winter storm around then and/or pieces of energy rotating around the trough digging to the west of us according to the last multiple runs on the GFS?
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:51 pm
by tpweather
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:35 pm
I'm just wondering about the dump of Arctic air around the 18th - 20th and what happens with the phasing with it as it looks like there will be a big winter storm around then and/or pieces of energy rotating around the trough digging to the west of us according to the last multiple runs on the GFS?
Hey Joe and great post. Euro has been hinting at that period even though just starting to get into their 10 day period but you could see how the model was going to show something during this time. The CMC shows that today as a decent storm near us. The gfs goes back and forth and I pay less attention to that model this far away. This could be the pattern setting up for late Feb and early March. Of course with this kind of pattern we are in the cross hairs of moisture but what type is anyone's guess this far out.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 2:17 pm
by dce
This is MJO phase 3 in a La Nina during February from the French website that Les posted a few months ago depicting what to expect with the different MJO phases corresponding to the Enso state.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:10 pm
by tpweather
dce wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 2:17 pm
This is MJO phase 3 in a La Nina during February from the French website that Les posted a few months ago depicting what to expect with the different MJO phases corresponding to the Enso state.
Doug,that is very possible and with the AO and NAO both positive to strongly positive you tend to get more cutters and maybe a few app runners. Of course locally means we deal with the kitchen sink in terms of precip types.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:18 pm
by tron777
Euro has some rain on Fri with a clipper and rain again towards Day 10.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:41 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:18 pm
Euro has some rain on Fri with a clipper and rain again towards Day 10.
I agree with the Friday system as moist but mild air works this way. This could be nice for northern Ohio and Indiana as a cold front heads south and the system to the north so would not be surprised up there snow is possible but locally we may end as a little snow Saturday morning and maybe a snow shower but nothing big. Wide range in temps as we get later in February as expected and you start to see the wider range of temps in the Ohio Valley and of course this can also add up to bigger systems down the line.