Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:04 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:52 pm I'm hoping the heavier amounts stay south of I-70 for Thurs and since I take the trash cart to the curb late Thurs afternoon or evening.

Also since Covid is still kicking my butt.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.

Eric,take care of yourself. Hope you are towards the end of covid.

Thank you very much, Tim. Its kind of a slow go getting there but prayerfully we're getting there.

I've been updating there at the covid topic in the Media section.

http://absolutevorticity.com/viewtopic. ... &start=125

Currently 34 here in G'ville and progged for around 33 on Wed morning.

Given how my family is "under the weather" I'm glad that ILN is only currently calling for a 20% slight chance of snow now for here in Darke Co for Thurs.

Looks like an all day blow fest here in the northern Miami Valley on Wed as there's an advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM.

The next 24 hours looks windy for everyone ahead of the 1/6 system. Arctic cold front will bring in the cold air as that Great Lakes low passes by to the NE strengthening as it does so. It lowers the heights too much so less for our wave to work with. It can't gain latitude so there you go.

I am going to go ahead and issue my prelim call:

I-70 Crew 0 -0.5"
N Cincy Burbs: Up to 1"
CVG Land / Metro: 1-2" 2" would be across the south.
SE Crew: 1-3" Going to leave that 3" possibility in there. Not ruling that out for you guys.

It is going to be a sharp gradient. 20-25 miles will make a big difference over a short distance on snowfall distribution.

Winter storm warning criteria snows for Southern / Eastern KY, portions of East TN, WVA and into the Mid Atlantic again. It'll blow up again and potentially impact portions of New England with an East Coast low.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:07 pm I am going to go ahead and issue my prelim call:

I-70 Crew 0 -0.5"
N Cincy Burbs: Up to 1"
CVG Land / Metro: 1-2" 2" would be across the south.
SE Crew: 1-3" Going to leave that 3" possibility in there. Not ruling that out for you guys.

It is going to be a sharp gradient. 20-25 miles will make a big difference over a short distance on snowfall distribution.

Winter storm warning criteria snows for Southern / Eastern KY, portions of East TN, WVA and into the Mid Atlantic again. It'll blow up again and potentially impact portions of New England with an East Coast low.

Hi Les,

Even areas like Nashville, TN where my nephew and his fiancee / her family resides look to pick up 4 to 5, possibly around 6 inches from that system.

The dogs agree with you Les. They are holding out for 3" for southern Grant County, but the rest is in line.

Good Evening and of course not much in the way of new info until later this evening. In a way very lucky to get some snow accumulation as this is a low type precip total but high ratio snow. If this was a common .15 inch as an example and temps were near the 32 degrees then we would probably have a more 8-1 ratio and even when that happens more melts especially falling in the mid-day time period. This would be the old forecast of 1 inch and under which usually means under 1/2 inch. With the cold in place and colder air moving in it gives us that 1-3 forecast. Sure the most likely 3 inches is further south but again through the metro don't be surprise with some slick roads later Thursday. Something I am looking at though is when does this storm get stronger and it does look to get stronger so a few hours earlier helps us out and a few hours later and not so good. Hopefully more info overnight to help narrow the forecast down but with most storms always a few surprises.

NAM, bless its heart.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:21 am NAM, bless its heart.

It's a sassy little thing!

I have no changes guys to the call I posted yesterday. Overnight guidance honestly hasn't changed very much at all. I think you can pretty much lock this one in. Very little north and west, better action south and east. SE Crew still has a shot to break out the shovel. Probably a leaf blower for me, or just wait until the rain takes care of it on Sunday. 6Z Euro did bump CVG back up to 0.11" where the 0Z run only had 0.05" or something. We'll see I guess.

The RGEM was NAM like as well this morning. 3Z SREF is also juiced up. 6Z HRRR was like the global models... we get clipped. We'll see I guess what the 12z suite brings today.

I think the 1-3 from a couple days ago is fine. We new north of 71 was iffy, and the 3 inch amounts were best case scenario, South of that for cvgland, imo. Let it ride

Time to start nowcasting a little bit too since we are basically 30 hours or whatever from first flakes. SPC Meso page this morning has a 996 MB low over the Great Lakes which will drag an arctic front thru here. This is why we are so windy today. Temps will plummet once the front passes and into the teens tomorrow morning. Mid 20s, maybe U20s at best across the south for tomorrow so plenty of cold air to work with. Meanwhile, our low is 1010 MB over Idaho dropping down thru the Rockies. It will eventually wind up in Texas or LA before moving east tomorrow. So keeping an eye on those features to see how it matches up with the model guidance.

Good Morning and guys I believe status quo is the way to go. Thursday afternoon rush hour will most likely have some issues. These kind of snows sometimes cause more problems than a bigger snow because folks tend to drive a little too fast. Les I agree about the leaf blower but its one of those situations that you must get the snow off the driveway and sidewalks quickly because if you wait until Friday morning it becomes a sheet of ice.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:20 am Good Morning and guys I believe status quo is the way to go. Thursday afternoon rush hour will most likely have some issues. These kind of snows sometimes cause more problems than a bigger snow because folks tend to drive a little too fast. Les I agree about the leaf blower but its one of those situations that you must get the snow off the driveway and sidewalks quickly because if you wait until Friday morning it becomes a sheet of ice.

It should be a light fluffy snow since we're just getting clipped by this thing. Starting the day cold too in the teens so every flake will stick. 1/2" to 1" of snow isn't much but enough to make the roads icy if the road crews aren't on their game.

BG SnowTalk! is back! https://www.wave3.com/2022/01/05/snowta ... update-16/

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:09 am BG SnowTalk! is back! https://www.wave3.com/2022/01/05/snowta ... update-16/

I completely agree with BG's assessment of "overachiever" potential, especially for our SE Crew. I also agree with the northern cutoff concern due to the inflow of drier air (which would be my hood and def north of 70) - seen it sooooo many times I lost count LOL. Which puts you Cincy/NKY folk right in the middle, so a complicated one for you guys IMO.

9Z SREF continues with its foot on the gas of a 3-5" snowfall for a lot of folks. 3Z run was the same. Heck of a range still on the individual members.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:39 am 9Z SREF continues with its foot on the gas of a 3-5" snowfall for a lot of folks. 3Z run was the same. Heck of a range still on the individual members.

That SREF map is 10:1, and I think we will have a higher ratio so again this system has "Overachiever" written all over it esp SE Crew IMO.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:39 am 9Z SREF continues with its foot on the gas of a 3-5" snowfall for a lot of folks. 3Z run was the same. Heck of a range still on the individual members.

Hey Les, Brian did a great job talking about how the models have increased totals the past 4 hours. Really comes down to the low that develops in the Mississippi area and when it combines with the wave out of the west. Does this slow down the storm by several hours. We talked about this yesterday and where do the two combine and further west we have a better shot of more snow and further east less snow of course. So one thing we really need to watch later today is the cold coming in and how much of a push do we get with the cold. For a better chance at higher accumulations we need the push to be less because if the push is strong then again the drier cold air can take control. Will this storm overachieve and yes but where is that going to happen. He did talk about the weekend as well and he mentioned Les what you have been talking about with the models. He did mentioned how the atmosphere is doing a big 180 and in a quick period of time and that is why I had a hard time seeing temps rise that quickly but hey we know the atmosphere can change quickly but I still worry somewhat earlier Saturday that surface temps will take longer to rise than models show and do we get an influx of precip with the warmer air upstairs. So yes rain will end up being the main type but at the start is the precip moving in quick enough before we get the cold out of here.

Great posts guys... let's see if other models agree or if it's more model noise.. i.e BS 12Z NAM running now...

12z NAM going south looks like

Looks like an improvement on the nam on the 12z at least for me. Last night it had me at zero. Now seeing possible an inch.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:12 am 12z NAM going south looks like

It finally caved to the other models

Gets me every winter - I see these amp'ed up NAM model runs and get all excited only to have the rug pulled out. LOL