Absolute Vorticity

Classic lake effect shown on radar. So far 2.5 new inches in this less than robust Winter up this way. More today likely. Still over 2 feet below average up here, which at this time would be about 47 inches.

It hit 10 degrees this morning so far out at the Arboretum, seeing some -2 to -3 lows in western / central KY.

nkyoutdoors wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:35 am It hit 10 degrees this morning so far out at the Arboretum, seeing some -2 to -3 lows in western / central KY.

Not surprising due to the deeper snow pack and clear skies.

Snowbrain2 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:26 am Classic lake effect shown on radar. So far 2.5 new inches in this less than robust Winter up this way. More today likely. Still over 2 feet below average up here, which at this time would be about 47 inches.

Pattern looking favorable for you to catch up Jeff in the next few weeks.

So my final low was 7 - sky cleared out here, but no snowpack kept it from getting much lower.

Here are the lowest official lows I could find:

OH - Lots of stations in SW Ohio reporting 7 degrees including my hood.
KY - Glasgow at -2
IN - Valparaiso at -3

Lowest in the lower 48:

-38 at Wadena, MN

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:22 am It's a nice snow shower now... cool! Wasn't expecting this.

Les, that snow shower probably came from the Ohio river NW wind effect. Lol
I've heard of that happening before!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:02 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:22 am It's a nice snow shower now... cool! Wasn't expecting this.

Les, that snow shower probably came from the Ohio river NW wind effect. Lol
I've heard of that happening before!

I have had power plant effect snow before when it is very cold and the flow is right. Rare though. I don't think it was from that this go around. There was just enough low level moisture in the column that it was far enough up into the DGZ to promote some light snow growth. Done now, dry air is in with the sun peeking out.

12Z GFS has a skiff of snow with a very weak wave dropping across the I-70 corridor Mon afternoon. Not a big deal but a few flakes for our northern posters are possible should this be correct.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:02 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:22 am It's a nice snow shower now... cool! Wasn't expecting this.

Les, that snow shower probably came from the Ohio river NW wind effect. Lol
I've heard of that happening before!

River Effect Snow Warning in effect for Les's hood

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:06 am

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:02 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:22 am It's a nice snow shower now... cool! Wasn't expecting this.

Les, that snow shower probably came from the Ohio river NW wind effect. Lol
I've heard of that happening before!

River Effect Snow Warning in effect for Les's hood

It came down about as good as it did yesterday for about 10-15 mins otherwise just a few fluttering flakes.

Upcoming rain system:

12z NAM CVG = 0.86"
12z GFS CVG = 0.58"

12z NAM DAY = 0.72"
12z GFS DAY = 0.44"

12z NAM CMH = 0.66"
12z GFS CMH = 0.45"

timeframe mostly 6z-12z Sunday AM

12Z Op GFS stopped at Day 7 so probably a NCEP server issue again today. Moving along... the 12Z CMC looks interesting again by Day 10 showing a possible phasing of the two jets occurring in the long term.

12Z GFS is starting to sputter along now... much colder on this run. Next Fri night into Sat, some light snow showing up as we get a little better of a phase with this system so the cold air gets involved. In the fantasy range more snow showing up on 1/19 followed by big storm potential right after that. OV low transfers to an East Cost low on this run so rain to snow. Lots of action coming up once we get past this weekend rain maker guys.

On a funny note. Don't wash you vehicles today. I wanted to get a salt spreader off the truck so I could drive the truck. Washed the spreader and decided to spray the truck. LOL they are both a little icy at the moment.

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 1:44 pm On a funny note. Don't wash you vehicles today. I wanted to get a salt spreader off the truck so I could drive the truck. Washed the spreader and decided to spray the truck. LOL they are both a little icy at the moment.

LOL! good thing it'll thaw out this weekend.

12Z Euro has no phasing next Sat. Cold push is too strong and the S wave gets suppressed.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:42 am Upcoming rain system:

12z NAM CVG = 0.86"
12z GFS CVG = 0.58"

12z NAM DAY = 0.72"
12z GFS DAY = 0.44"

12z NAM CMH = 0.66"
12z GFS CMH = 0.45"

timeframe mostly 6z-12z Sunday AM

Adding the 12Z Euro to this list.

CVG - 0.57"
DAY - 0.52"
CMH - 0.56"

We're going to finish the first week of January very close to normal temp wise, with alternating days of warmer/normal/cold, so that worked out pretty well. 8th-14th should average near to slightly above temp wise with a wet/cold beginning and warmer ending. Still a huge improvement from December.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:02 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:42 am Upcoming rain system:

12z NAM CVG = 0.86"
12z GFS CVG = 0.58"

12z NAM DAY = 0.72"
12z GFS DAY = 0.44"

12z NAM CMH = 0.66"
12z GFS CMH = 0.45"

timeframe mostly 6z-12z Sunday AM

Adding the 12Z Euro to this list.

CVG - 0.57"
DAY - 0.52"
CMH - 0.56"

Hey Les, I like your call from earlier this morning 0.25"-0.50". Saying NO to the NAM-AMP'ed model LOL

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:03 pm We're going to finish the first week of January very close to normal temp wise, with alternating days of warmer/normal/cold, so that worked out pretty well. 8th-14th should average near to slightly above temp wise with a wet/cold beginning and warmer ending. Still a huge improvement from December.

Then I think things get interesting after this... 15th on for snow / cold potential once again.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:04 pm
Hey Les, I like your call from earlier this morning 0.25"-0.50". Saying NO to the NAM-AMP'ed model LOL

Thanks Mike! When it comes to the NAM, Just Say No®

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:23 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:03 pm We're going to finish the first week of January very close to normal temp wise, with alternating days of warmer/normal/cold, so that worked out pretty well. 8th-14th should average near to slightly above temp wise with a wet/cold beginning and warmer ending. Still a huge improvement from December.

Then I think things get interesting after this... 15th on for snow / cold potential once again.

Yep, potential goes up from there , we SHOULD have the favorable PNA/EPO Combo going by mid month

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:37 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:23 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:03 pm We're going to finish the first week of January very close to normal temp wise, with alternating days of warmer/normal/cold, so that worked out pretty well. 8th-14th should average near to slightly above temp wise with a wet/cold beginning and warmer ending. Still a huge improvement from December.

Then I think things get interesting after this... 15th on for snow / cold potential once again.

Yep, potential goes up from there , we SHOULD have the favorable PNA/EPO Combo going by mid month

Agreed and perhaps for a short time, -AO / -NAO as well. Check out the 8-14 Day analogs from the CPC this afternoon centered on 1/15. 2009 comes up several times. Had a nice multi day snow and ice event late in the month. 1994, 1996, and 2003 are listed once each. Some nice analogs in there showing up that we have scored in before with similar set up's.

17 was it today here... we'll see how cold we get tonight with clear skies / S winds.