Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 22, 2022 7:58 am Good morning Les. So far these waves look like they will develop per the models but then they just die off. The GFS is so out there and this happens every summer but 1 day it will so a hurricane east of Florida in the about 15 days then the next day it shows the same storm off the Texas coast. The models really are not much help and we just will need to wait and look at local satellite images to get a better ideal what may happen. MJO nearing phase 1 which is a better phase for tropical development this time of year but that does not mean we will get hit with a ton of storms.

We've got to see more of the African Dust go away and less vertical wind shear too. That has been a killer.

We have a new wave off the Mexican coast that has odds of 20 / 40 right now.

That wave now has 50 / 70 odds now!

The wave now is 90 / 90. The next wave just came off the Mexican Coast and it's odds are at 10 / 60. Guidance has shown the lead wave becoming a named storm, if not a hurricane in time. It is then expected to weaken as it moves North then NW into the Baja region. In time, it may even spread moisture into the SW US.

We now have TS Javier with winds of 40 mph moving to the NW at 10. The current expectation with this system is for it to remain a weak TS moving NW and eventually W in time away from land. So if the NHC is right, it will not bother any land areas.

The next wave off of the Mexican Coast has odds of 50 / 80. This is the one that the models develop into a tropical cyclone and recurve it in time into the Baja area / Gulf of California and into the SW US in about a week or so from now. We will need to keep an eye on this wave for sure.

Javier has winds of 50 mph this morning moving WNW at 13. The next wave off the coast's odds are now at 80 / 90.

Hurricane Kay is moving NW at 13 mph with winds of 85. Kay is expected to become a major hurricane before weakening as it encounters cooler waters. This was the one that earlier models had moving into the SW CONUS. I have not checked models as of late to see if that solution faded ore not. NHC 5 day track is below.

Hurricane Kay has winds of 100 mph moving NW at 12. This one needs to be watched for potential California, or SW Us impacts. Still a bit too early to know how far north and east it's going to get. Still NW so you'd want NE for a re-curve. Anyway, this one may get a tad stronger then begin to weaken as it encounters cooler waters. California has not had a tropical storm watch hoisted since 1939. Is some of the guidance on drugs or will it happen? The official NHC Track has it paralleling the coast getting close to some of the islands off shore from S CALI then turning back out to sea and weakening into a depression.

Hurricane Kay has winds of 85 mph moving NNW at 14 paralleling the Baja. Not much change to my thinking... rain and some wind (nothing major, mainly a rain event) for S CALI particularly the LA and San Diego Metro areas and also into SW AZ. She is not expected to make a US landfall and will turn back out to sea and weaken.

Kay is now a TS with winds of 60 mph moving NNW at 13. Rainfall amounts over the weekend expected with Kay:

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6
to 8 inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches

Kay is down to 45 mph moving NW at 12. Mod to pockets of hvy rain now occurring over the Deserts of S Cali from Yuma, AZ over to San Diego. LA is still dry attm but that will change tonight.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 3:39 pm Kay is down to 45 mph moving NW at 12. Mod to pockets of hvy rain now occurring over the Deserts of S Cali from Yuma, AZ over to San Diego. LA is still dry attm but that will change tonight.

Les you don't see many systems hitting those areas. Just tells me that part of the world in terms of the tropics has quite a bit of energy and has been an area west of Mexico that has been rather active. Only so much energy to go around as we know. Kay will die down as the waters get cooler off the coast of California but since they have had a long stretch of hot weather this summer even the oceans are warmer than normal.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 3:51 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 3:39 pm Kay is down to 45 mph moving NW at 12. Mod to pockets of hvy rain now occurring over the Deserts of S Cali from Yuma, AZ over to San Diego. LA is still dry attm but that will change tonight.

Les you don't see many systems hitting those areas. Just tells me that part of the world in terms of the tropics has quite a bit of energy and has been an area west of Mexico that has been rather active. Only so much energy to go around as we know. Kay will die down as the waters get cooler off the coast of California but since they have had a long stretch of hot weather this summer even the oceans are warmer than normal.

Exactly right Tim and that is probably a good reason why this system was able to stay intact as long as it has. No tropical storm warnings or anything for the US, so that streak continues from 1939.

We had TS Lester while I was on vacation. Too bad I was a whimpy storm! Currently on the board we have TS Madeline with winds of 60 mph moving NW at 9. No impacts from her are expected, Next wave off the Coast has a 30% chance of development.

Madeline is barely hanging on with winds of 40 mph moving W away from land. A weakening trend is occurring with this system so we can say good bye to it. Mean while, a pair of waves off the Mexican Coast now both only 20% chances of development.

We now have TS Newton with winds of 60 mph. No threat to land areas.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep5.s ... t#contents

TS Newton has winds of 50 mph moving WNW at 7. The next wave off of Mexico has 20/30 odds.

Newton is a TD and we can kiss him good-bye.

Two waves are out there to keep an eye on. The second one has the best chance of development with 20 / 70 odds.

TS Orlene has winds of 40 mph moving WNW at 13. This one is going to recurve back towards Mexico soon. It will also become a hurricane, weaken to a TS then hit Mexico. The tropics are sparing no one at this time.

Orelene is moving NW at 5 mph this morning with winds of 60 mph. No changes to the intensity or track at this time.

Orlene has winds of 130 mph this morning and may peak at 145 mph before weakening and hitting Mexico.

Hurricane Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
600 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ORLENE CONTINUES
NORTHWARD...
....SIGNIFICANT WIND, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN
THE ISLAS MARIAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 106.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

Orlene is making landfall in Mexico this morning with winds of 100 mph moving N at 9. We also have 2 other waves. The first has an 80% chance to develop and the other came off the Mexican coast with 20 / 30 odds.

Tropical Storm Paine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022

...PAINE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 112.6W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

TS Julia has crossed over from the ATL into the EPAC now and will skirt the coast of Mexico then we can say bye bye to this one.