Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:42 am Good Sunday all! Mid 80s for today and low 80s for tomorrow on Columbus Day. No records for CVG with 89 set back in 1913 for today and 88 set back in 1963 for tomorrow.

Chance for isolated t-storms Monday night very early Tues otherwise increasing rain chances towards the end of next week can be expected. Rain chances continue into the early part of next weekend. Temps will fall from the 80s back into the U70s to near 80 for Tues - Thurs. 70s Fri and the 60s which is normal finally by next weekend.

That East Pac tropical system is forming now (see tropics forum for the details) and we still need to keep one eye open on some better moisture getting in here for Fri and Sat. Not all guidance agrees so just something to watch and nothing more for our local area.

Long Term... more cut off lows are showing up and cooler temps on the last few GFS runs and that is for like the last 7-10 days of the month. We shall see as we get closer in time.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:28 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:42 am Good Sunday all! Mid 80s for today and low 80s for tomorrow on Columbus Day. No records for CVG with 89 set back in 1913 for today and 88 set back in 1963 for tomorrow.

Chance for isolated t-storms Monday night very early Tues otherwise increasing rain chances towards the end of next week can be expected. Rain chances continue into the early part of next weekend. Temps will fall from the 80s back into the U70s to near 80 for Tues - Thurs. 70s Fri and the 60s which is normal finally by next weekend.

That East Pac tropical system is forming now (see tropics forum for the details) and we still need to keep one eye open on some better moisture getting in here for Fri and Sat. Not all guidance agrees so just something to watch and nothing more for our local area.

Long Term... more cut off lows are showing up and cooler temps on the last few GFS runs and that is for like the last 7-10 days of the month. We shall see as we get closer in time.

Good Morning Les and another warm day in store. We do disagree on temps as I am going 81 for a high both days. Always hard to get into the mid 80's in mid-October unless the ground is dry and very low dews. I know there is a decent south wind but models have been too warm imo over the last week in terms of high temps. I will be at the Bengals game so hopefully some high clouds will help with the warmth. This week finally is the one where we start to turn things around and heads towards the autumn season most of us enjoy and that is temps in the 60's during the day and 40's at night.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Oct 10, 2021 11:29 am WHO DEY!! Have fun at the game, Tim and family!

Prayerfully Les's Lions can finally get their 1st win of the season today!

Currently 72 here in G'ville and progged to top out around 84.

MJSun wrote: ↑Sun Oct 10, 2021 1:41 pm Ok I'm done with 80s, cannot wait for the change in temps at the end if the week. Ugh.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 10, 2021 6:31 pm Looks like 81 at CVG today Tim so you were right with the temps. 83 imby today. Really surprised CVG didn't get warmer with the strong southerly flow and lack of cloud cover.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:14 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 10, 2021 6:31 pm Looks like 81 at CVG today Tim so you were right with the temps. 83 imby today. Really surprised CVG didn't get warmer with the strong southerly flow and lack of cloud cover.

Hey Les it felt hotter at the game. I just believe models don't have a lot of info with this pattern in early-mid-Oct. Been wet and dew's are staying up for this time of year plus only so many hours where temps rise and this time of year by 2p or 3pm that is usually the high as a lower sun angle keeps it from rising to much after that time. Monday will have a stronger wind but that may be set off by more high level clouds.

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:55 pm Oct 10th and I was sweating out there today. Bring on the cooler temps please. Models are showing maybe a nice snow event out west in a few days?????

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:39 am Look for that weakening line of storms moving in here late this evening into the overnight hours. I wouldn't rule out strong to severe storms in Central IN but I think all of AV Country should be fine in that regard.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:39 am Look for that weakening line of storms moving in here late this evening into the overnight hours. I wouldn't rule out strong to severe storms in Central IN but I think all of AV Country should be fine in that regard.

Good Morning and let the changes begin finally. Les your forecast looks good and yes by this time next week I would not be surprised to see a few upper 30's in the normally cold spots. Going to be a quick changes of color in the leaves as well.