Absolute Vorticity

53 for my low this morning. Awesome!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:44 am 53 for my low this morning. Awesome!

I got you beat - low was 51 here! Have a safe trip Les!

Actually some mid 40s around.....Washington CH, Urbana and Lancaster to name a few. These are normally cold spots anyways so no shocker.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:50 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:44 am 53 for my low this morning. Awesome!

I got you beat - low was 51 here! Have a safe trip Les!

Awesome Mike! Thanks very much. Here's to Your Dome breaking on Wednesday!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:58 am
Here's to Your Dome breaking on Wednesday!

Might have to have a keg party that day!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:03 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:58 am
Here's to Your Dome breaking on Wednesday!

Might have to have a keg party that day!

Whatever it takes, right?

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:26 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:03 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:58 am
Here's to Your Dome breaking on Wednesday!

Might have to have a keg party that day!

Whatever it takes, right?

Did someone say keg party

12Z GFS in the long term now showing my call back in action of after 9/20 turning cooler and stormier. Agree with the more active part, just not sold yet with high confidence on the cooling off part. I think the tropics will play a role here. If we're still active tropically speaking, it'll skew warmer. If the tropics begin to shut down early, then it'll be cooler. That has been thought process anyway from the start. It's a matter of timing. I like my ideas, just unsure of the timing.

No doubt Les about how the tropics really affect the weather this time of year. The latest gfs cooled off a degree or two from the overnight models. This happened yesterday as well so not sure what different info is put into each model but there is a pattern that is happening. Wonder if the model runs overnight raises the temps by a degree or two.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:00 pm No doubt Les about how the tropics really affect the weather this time of year. The latest gfs cooled off a degree or two from the overnight models. This happened yesterday as well so not sure what different info is put into each model but there is a pattern that is happening. Wonder if the model runs overnight raises the temps by a degree or two.

Euro has honestly been the most consistent in the last 3 or 4 days showing 592-594 DM heights and 850s in that 21 to 22C range for Sunday and Monday, cooling off a touch by Tuesday. That has been my basis for the U80s to around 90 degree call that I made the other day when we both posted our forecasted highs for CVG.

EDIT: The new 12z Euro is singing a similar tune.

What a nightmare scenario some of the models are showing for SE TX and SW LA next week. The Euro in particular is not good. That tropical wave we're watching that is supposed to get into the Gulf next week... might become a TD or weak TS. That's not the problem. The problem is the slow movement once it hits land. Today's Euro run has the low taking 3-4 days to move away from the SE TX / SW LA region. If correct, some serious flash flooding is going to occur down there. Glad I'm off work next week. We'll probably be busy as a result. Still are thanks to Ida and we don't need this situation to further impact things.

As of 3pm, dew is 49 at CVG! Too bad it isn't going to last.

We're about 35 mins away from Cass Lake MN. Been a long day of sitting and taking turns driving. A little breezy and 63 right now at our current location.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:59 pm We're about 35 mins away from Cass Lake MN. Been a long day of sitting and taking turns driving. A little breezy and 63 right now at our current location.

Have a wonderful time, Les!!

The next couple of days offer up some more chances for the CVG contest as today 89'ed or 90'ed and Mon 90'ed.

Currently 73 here in Greenville and progged for around 87 later today.

No doubt you can feel the difference in the humidity though its not mid-summer dews out there. Temps today should get in the 86-88 range and that should happen the next 2 days. Do we get some rain mid-week and models will tend to overdo the totals with cold fronts in September but if you can get that tropical connection then you have a chance to get some decent rains. Way to early because as usual we are in the area that has the front heading towards us and tropical moisture as well but do the two meet here or somewhere south of here. Even towards next weekend no really true fall air though it will be a few degrees cooler .

Models I am done with the models. Such a huge miss on temps today and need to go with my gut.

Wow as it only made it to 85 today in CVG! DAY made it to 88 and CMH to 86.

I think smoke may have held temps down a degree or two

Yikes... I busted bad. Never thought that the smoke was coming back. Was nice up here today with good fishing too! We probably caught 20 or 25 eyes. 7 of them keepers meaning 15" min size limit for the tournament rules but there is no min size limit in the walleye when you're prefishing. 2 of those were overs. That means 20+ Inches. Lots of perch, most of them small but a few dandy's. My brother got a monster perch. Over 13 in easy. Tons of pike too of course. Cant keep them off. Anyway we've got dinner for tomorrow lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:55 pm Yikes... I busted bad. Never thought that the smoke was coming back. Was nice up here today with good fishing too! We probably caught 20 or 25 eyes. 7 of them keepers meaning 15" min size limit for the tournament rules but there is no min size limit in the walleye when you're prefishing. 2 of those were overs. That means 20+ Inches. Lots of perch, most of them small but a few dandy's. My brother got a monster perch. Over 13 in easy. Tons of pike too of course. Cant keep them off. Anyway we've got dinner for tomorrow lol

Sounds like a very nice haul, Bro!

0112 UNK YALE ST. CLAIR MI 4313 8280 DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN YALE. (DTX)

0124 UNK MARYSVILLE ST. CLAIR MI 4291 8248 DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE MARYSVILLE VICINITY. (DTX)

Yale, MI is where our AV friend Shayne resides!

Good Morning and another warm day in store. Starting to see more cold fronts in the extended and that is normal for the second half of September. How much rain is usually over predicted with these fronts unless you tap some tropical moisture. The problem there is the tropical moisture has a harder time moving so far north during this same time period. Again September a dry month compared to most months in the growing season. Why did the models miss on temps and maybe the smoke but really we have a decent high over much of the country east of the rocky mountains. When you have such a wide area this time of year getting a big time 90 degree outbreak is unlikely and usually you see the 90's with a more condensed area of hot weather. Still going to be warm over the next 2 weeks but we are seeing the pacific getting active with the mjo headed towards phase 5 and if we see the re-curving of these storms then a few weeks out we should start to see some deeper troughs in the central and eastern part of the USA while the west should start to see their normal late September/early October warming with winds offshore. The longer term models for the upcoming winter is something I pay little attention too and reason is they will change because to much current weather is thrown into the mix. One week we will see a mild winter and the then a week later a cold winter. Way to early and starting in mid-Oct we start looking at trends that could give us an ideal on the upcoming winter.

Leaves are getting some color already up here. I'll try and remember to snap a pic later.

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