Absolute Vorticity

So we will have to see how the rest of the day/night plays out. Can't really rely on the models but it looks like a trend may be forming....the storms that impacted you guys earlier laid a boundary that future systems may follow tonight (meaning most action near or south of river) so will have to watch that.

Storms should fire up near Chicago again later. Then that complex will take the dive southward along the edge of the heat dome. So do we get missed to the SW, or get hit by late tonight or tomorrow morning? That is the ultimate question. Anything else for today itself should be on the scattered side.

Updated totals:

CVG - 0.36"
Me - 0.48"
Mesonet site: 0.42"

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:30 am Updated totals:

CVG - 0.36"
Me - 0.48"
Mesonet site: 0.42"

My hood - 0.001"

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:30 am Updated totals:

CVG - 0.36"
Me - 0.48"
Mesonet site: 0.42"

My hood - 0.001"

A fly over by a bird is better then that!

Quite a lot of heat and CAPE to work with just west of the Tri-state should anything pop later. We are still trying to recover here of course. I-70 Crew is in the 80s. 70s here. LOU in the lower 90s!

Last couple of HRRR runs blows up storms right over Cincy in the 5:30-8 pm timeframe. We shall see!

79 / 71 as of 3pm at CVG. Seeing some additional support for scattered development after 5pm as well. We should be recovered as good as it's going to get. Everyone who did not get hit this morning, should already be primed and ready.

Possible outflow boundary that the HRRR, etc are picking up on firing later?

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:17 pm Possible outflow boundary that the HRRR, etc are picking up on firing later?

Could be - the model has been quite persistent in the storm development last few runs.

DCAPE still pretty high so if anything does develop we could see some pulse severe again just like this morning.

Supercell Composite of 4 in NKY too - CAPE out in Illinois over 6,000! Yikes!

We do have some weak bulk shear of 25 knots over NKY as well.

Nice lapse rates too and pressure falls... it's a power keg over Wisc, Iowa, and ILL as we head into peak heating time... Here locally, We'll just have to wait and see if an outflow boundary maybe enough for some scattered action later.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:37 pm Nice lapse rates too and pressure falls... it's a power keg over Wisc, Iowa, and ILL as we head into peak heating time... Here locally, We'll just have to wait and see if an outflow boundary maybe enough for some scattered action later.

Great Post Les and I agree that powder keg could explode into a nice mcs which could give us some overnight storms. Lots of things to like in terms of getting a nice overnight storm and models have been hinting at that for sometime and looking at the current conditions not a bad call.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:40 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:37 pm Nice lapse rates too and pressure falls... it's a power keg over Wisc, Iowa, and ILL as we head into peak heating time... Here locally, We'll just have to wait and see if an outflow boundary maybe enough for some scattered action later.

Great Post Les and I agree that powder keg could explode into a nice mcs which could give us some overnight storms. Lots of things to like in terms of getting a nice overnight storm and models have been hinting at that for sometime and looking at the current conditions not a bad call.

Good afternoon Tim! I'm just happy to get the half inch I got this morning to end my dreaded dry streak! Hope others can get some as well later who missed earlier.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:47 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:40 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:37 pm Nice lapse rates too and pressure falls... it's a power keg over Wisc, Iowa, and ILL as we head into peak heating time... Here locally, We'll just have to wait and see if an outflow boundary maybe enough for some scattered action later.

Great Post Les and I agree that powder keg could explode into a nice mcs which could give us some overnight storms. Lots of things to like in terms of getting a nice overnight storm and models have been hinting at that for sometime and looking at the current conditions not a bad call.

Good afternoon Tim! I'm just happy to get the half inch I got this morning to end my dreaded dry streak! Hope others can get some as well later who missed earlier.

I was in Campbell county painting some rooms for my daughter and it poured. Maybe I need to paint some rooms in your house Les to help bring in the heavier rains lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:47 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:40 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:37 pm Nice lapse rates too and pressure falls... it's a power keg over Wisc, Iowa, and ILL as we head into peak heating time... Here locally, We'll just have to wait and see if an outflow boundary maybe enough for some scattered action later.

Great Post Les and I agree that powder keg could explode into a nice mcs which could give us some overnight storms. Lots of things to like in terms of getting a nice overnight storm and models have been hinting at that for sometime and looking at the current conditions not a bad call.

Good afternoon Tim! I'm just happy to get the half inch I got this morning to end my dreaded dry streak! Hope others can get some as well later who missed earlier.

I was in Campbell county painting some rooms for my daughter and it poured. Maybe I need to paint some rooms in your house Les to help bring in the heavier rains lol.

I will pay you in beer! Come right on over!

18Z HRRR is awesome if it were to pan out. Next round, we've discussed. Then the next one, a weakening MCS tomorrow morning. Then one last shot Wed afternoon before a hot Thurs. I'd take that if correct.

Louisville is at 95 degrees with a dew of 74 and a heat index temp at 106. Okay not surprising as we see this happens usually in the summer but what is not usually the case is its been mostly cloudy all day long. Usually we get those kind of conditions with plenty of sun.

82 here right now, watching scattered action starting to pop in IN to our West right on cue.

Visible:

MCS blossoming now over Wisc, IA, and ILL for us I hope tomorrow morning in a weakening state. So let's also keep an eye on that. Additional convection in the St. Louis area also. Lots to watch folks!

83 / 74 at CVG, about the same here. Good luck the next few hours this evening to all!

90 degrees with a dewpoint of 80 at Terre Haute for a nice balmy 108 heat index!

Not much left for us tonight... so... we watch the current line over ILL and Wisc, as it slides into Mich overnight. Then, on the tail of that boundary, a new complex should develop after midnight and push SE from Iowa and ILL into IN and then it will begin to weaken and we'll see what's left for us tomorrow morning. That will dictate how tomorrow will go and / or if we see re-development in the afternoon.