June 2021 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Radar quiet early this morning bit think by late morning the showers will be in our area. The dismal thunderstorm drought rolls on, consider yourself lucky if you here a rumble or two. Rest of the week stays unchanged .
Further ahead in the extended , both GEFs and EPS still showing the slightly below normal temps for mid month around the 14th+- lasting 5-7 days

[cloudy72]

The overnight Euro goes gangbusters with the QPF thru 8pm Thursday with pretty much all of AV-land seeing 2-3" additional with local 4"+ amounts. GFS is less extreme with higher totals across SW Ohio into northern Kentucky and generally an inch or two there. Just like yesterday, it will be a radar watching game to see who wins and who gets the screw zone. I was lucky in the morning yesterday, but saw three different cells miss me during the afternoon hours. LOL

[tron777]

I was wrong about the timing this morning when I posted yesterday that I thought we'd see a repeat of yesterday. Nope. Now, we'll get a little heating for afternoon and evening storms. Should come in two rounds. One in the early afternoon hours and the other during the evening. Agree with the lack of severe wx. Heavy rain, some thunder, maybe a little lightning and some gusty winds to 40 ought to do it in the strongest cells. As usual, some will get little and others could get an inch.

Also agree with what Bgoney has said for long term with that mid month cool down. then we'll see here, but there are signs of a trough West / ridge East pattern maybe trying to get going for late June and into July. That would mean some heat for us if correct. This is just very very early in the game but Tim's thoughts of a hotter July and August, still look good to me right now.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and nice and muggy for my morning walk. No changes to ongoing forecast and its where you wake up each day and try to figure out who the best shot of getting rainfall though any shower or thundershower can pop up at anytime. Looking at everything this morning it looks like the best chance would be west of I-71 today and that could happen by early afternoon. I believe the Euro has problems with totals because it may pick a place that gets hit with 2-3 inches but this kind of setup not everyone will get that high of a total. So yes the Euro could be dead on in your backyard but fail down the road. One thing we will be watching towards later next week and see if a tropical system develops and heads into the GOM. These kind of systems can sometimes change the pattern so lets first see if it develops and then see if there is a pattern change. Les I still believe July and August look hot and less precip than normal but again the longer we stay in this pattern the longer it may take to kick into full gear.

[tron777]

Tim... I like the idea of the tropics firing up with a possible Gulf system trying to change things up after the cool down is over. We'll see, but that idea looks good on the data attm.

EDIT: I also believe that should a nice storm develop, the Bermuda High will amp up and flex its muscle which will help determine the storms track (Mexico, TX, Gulf Coast states, etc) If we do see a Western US trough develop, the heat would be allowed to expand in our direction. Probably not intense at first since we have been wet but once that evaporates after a week of U80s to L90s... then we can talk Trev's lingo. All speculation naturally, but we need to watch for the domino effect in weather. A chain of events can sometimes occur like that to set up anomalous weather patterns. If we can pick up on it, we'll be ahead of the curve ball on this forum.

[tpweather]

Tim... I like the idea of the tropics firing up with a possible Gulf system trying to change things up after the cool down is over. We'll see, but that idea looks good on the data attm.

EDIT: I also believe that should a nice storm develop, the Bermuda High will amp up and flex its muscle which will help determine the storms track (Mexico, TX, Gulf Coast states, etc) If we do see a Western US trough develop, the heat would be allowed to expand in our direction. Probably not intense at first since we have been wet but once that evaporates after a week of U80s to L90s... then we can talk Trev's lingo. All speculation naturally, but we need to watch for the domino effect in weather. A chain of events can sometimes occur like that to set up anomalous weather patterns. If we can pick up on it, we'll be ahead of the curve ball on this forum.

Great Post Les!!!

[tron777]

Thanks Tim... many, many IF's, but something for us to watch over the next couple of weeks.

[tron777]

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/06/08/goode- ... r-blog-68/

[Bgoney]

Just SE of Indy one of the better clusters of t-showers I've seen for the region the last couple days. Tops nearing 24,000 ft

[tron777]

A loan shower is trying to form close to my hood. It's a hair to my west right now. I'd like to mow after work today and if any rain misses me I'll be good. Mother Nature is trying to ruin my plans though.

[tron777]

Mid-morning update from the boys:

A cluster of thunderstorms in central Indiana is moving
northeast and will continue to track along a Connersville -
Richmond - Sidney - Kenton line this late morning and early
afternoon. Cloud shield to the south consisting of mainly a
thicker cirrus has limited heating and will continue to inhibit
development over the southwest CWA - at least early on.

Cluster of storms appear to be best shown by the 06Z NAM where a
strong h5 vorticity maxima is placed a little further north but
has the evolution of this feature slowly decreasing as it keeps
a northeastward trajectory. Looking at the thicker cloud cover
being ejected downstream, the weakening of the cluster should be
a foregone conclusion as it will be casting an even thicker
shadow downstream. Tried to focus more on the enhanced showers
and occasional thunder in this for the forecast update and
lowered pops elsewhere early on. Afterwards, blended into the
earlier forecast for this afternoon and scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms look to be the better forecast, though
isolated to more widely scattered coverage will be the trend
that we will be working towards. Convective temperature around
84 with shortwave energy in a haphazard configuration on the
weak southwest flow aloft necessitates that everyone has some
chance of getting a shower/thunderstorm this afternoon and early
evening.

Any storms that do develop will have a potential for torrential
rainfall, and this is the primary threat to bring to the table
at this moment in time.

[tpweather]

A nice report from the boys this morning. I agree and won't take much to hit the convective temp imo. Even with peaks of sun that last 5-10 minutes temps will rise so expect that by 2-3pm is my guess.

[tron777]

I hustled, but got the grass knocked down during my lunch break. Now, it can rain LOL What will probably happen though, is now I'll get missed.

[cloudy72]

I hustled, but got the grass knocked down during my lunch break. Now, it can rain LOL What will probably happen though, is now I'll get missed.

It will reinforce your dome - like in my hood! LOL

[tron777]

I hustled, but got the grass knocked down during my lunch break. Now, it can rain LOL What will probably happen though, is now I'll get missed.

It will reinforce your dome - like in my hood! LOL

Radar is trying to buck that trend. Showers are increasing over S IN and t-showers popping in Central / SW KY.

[cloudy72]

Nice downpour on the OHGO I-75 cam at Middletown exit a few min ago.

[tron777]

Central KY continues to light up (nothing severe) and some of that should be impacting us, esp along and S of the river later.

[tron777]

After checking the 12Z models.... I think we've got the forecast well in hand. Highest chances for rain are now and Thurs. Chances drop a bit Friday and more so on Sat. I think by Sunday, we're all 100% dry. Also by then, the humidity should begin to drop with temps also coming back down into the lower 80s with lows being the most noticeable in the U50s to L60s across the region. The tropics look to still cause us some issues with regards to how things go after the cooler period. Still sticking with my earlier post about the tropics causing us to turn warmer and drier for late June into July. A wait and see game naturally at this point.

[cloudy72]

Hopefully we can cash in between now and Thursday - latest CPC precip outlook for the 8-14 day period (6/15-6/21) shows very dry conditions in much of the OV perhaps setting up that heat Tim has been talking about for the end of June into July period.

[tron777]

Hopefully we can cash in between now and Thursday - latest CPC precip outlook for the 8-14 day period (6/15-6/21) shows very dry conditions in much of the OV perhaps setting up that heat Tim has been talking about for the end of June into July period.

The beginning of that period should be pleasant but it won't take long for the temps to rebound to our usual summer time levels. I am on the same page as Tim currently and you've seen my thoughts about the tropics contributing to said pattern change. Should be interesting to watch and as much as I hate the heat, if correct, it would make for a nice long term forecasting call by Tim and the forum.

[tron777]

Per radar trends, it is almost a virtual lock I'll be seeing some rain here shortly. Hope you can see some also Mike! Bgoney may wanna put in a request as well.

[cloudy72]

Per radar trends, it is almost a virtual lock I'll be seeing some rain here shortly. Hope you can see some also Mike! Bgoney may wanna put in a request as well.

Keeping fingers crossed!

[tron777]

Light rain here and at CVG currently. A lot of the heavier stuff fizzled out but I don't really need the rain attm anyway so I'm good with what is happening. 81 for my high today before the rain began.

[Bgoney]

Per radar trends, it is almost a virtual lock I'll be seeing some rain here shortly. Hope you can see some also Mike! Bgoney may wanna put in a request as well.

Not this go round, the cluster really fizzled out, a couple of sprinkles, maybe three. Hoping my thoughts from a couple days ago pan out in that Wednesday and Thursday are the most widespread rains. With the upper level low creaping ever so slowly closer overnight im expecting overnight/ early morning rains to be widespread, at least hoping so , with good chances the rest of wed/Thurs

[Bgoney]

Cold weather is settling in across eastern Australia, focusing very much on snow, strong winds, and flood-inducing rains across multiple states, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) warned Tuesday, June 8, 2021. The wild weather is a result of an Antarctic cold pushed up from the Southern Ocean, prompting warnings across New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory, Victoria, Tasmania, and Queensland.

In Victoria, wind gusts of around 80 km/h (50 mph) and freezing temperatures produced a snowstorm on Mt. Buller Monday, June 7, while temperatures around the state dropped below 10 °C (50 °F). East of Adelaide, heavy hail coated the streets on the Mount Lofty Ranges.

The powerful cold front, which originated in Antarctica, is expected to create a cut-off low-pressure system over NSW, which will gradually move east and produce rain, snow, and even hail across Victoria, NSW, and southern Queensland.