March 2021 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

The incredibly cold Russian winter continued the first week in March. Readings in Central Russia were -55 to -68 degrees Fahrenheit breaking records even for them .

[tron777]

12Z Euro continues to be cooler and drier then the GFS and has some light rain Thurs and Fri then it's done. Still going with the slower / wetter GFS solution but both models so far, continue to refuse to change their solutions.

[MVWxObserver]

12Z GFS brings in 2-3" of rainfall beginning on Friday. Lighter on Sat then another big hit Sat night and Sunday especially in the morning.

Hopefully any rain for next weekend won't renew flooding re the Ohio River and other water branches. Thankful for these current dry days between systems and a taste of Spring temp wise.

[tron777]

Bgoney's original call of possibly hitting 70 for a day or two next week is looking money in my opinion. About 2 days ago, I began to agree with his forecast. Wed and Thurs look to be the best chance of cracking 70. Euro is still too fast and too cool. The GFS has the right idea of warmer and slower. My colder call is still good but it may hold off until after 3/20 instead of 3/15 like I was thinking. Either way... what we're looking at is gorgeous weather until Friday or next weekend at the rate things are going.

[tron777]

Good Monday morning to you all. The 0Z Euro may finally be taking a step towards the GFS now. A few showers on Thurs with rain likely Friday ending early Sat. Then more Monday of next week. GFS holds it off until Friday and continues the chances as well into early next week. They are backing off a bit from the cooler air I've been mentioning also just a bit. We'll see what happens with that but for now... absolutely gorgeous weather continues thru Wed, maybe Thurs depending on when exactly the rain shows up. Still looking good for a 70 on Wed, maybe Thurs if the front is slower. Rainfall amounts are still looking to exceed 1" once the rains do get going. I would out rule out a 1-2" look at this point.

[Bgoney]

23 when I left the house this morning.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and looking forward to the next 3 days. Was able to burn some leftover tree limbs and leaves yesterday with a nice slow burn that lasted about 8 hours. Glad to see some rain late this week. Next week can we get some snow and its still on the table but again snow this time of year is never easy. The Russia winter like Bgoney continues and I still believe the latest I ever saw heavy snow in much of Russia during November instead of October was a big big reason the NH has seen some really decent cold outbreaks compared to the last several years. Last year was wild in many aspects including the weather. Severe weather and someone mentioned the GOM being really warm and yes and no as warmer temps in the eastern gulf but the western gulf was cooler than normal and even the eastern gulf towards Florida should have seen some cooling with the latest cold spell for us and cool spell for them. Will we get some severe weather in March and maybe the last week but still believe a big uptick in April..

[fyrfyter]

Hopefully any rain for next weekend won't renew flooding re the Ohio River and other water branches. Thankful for these current dry days between systems and a taste of Spring temp wise.

River is supposed to fall below 35 feet on Wednesday. Pool is about 26 feet, so unless we get biblical rains, it should be ok.

[tpweather]

Hopefully any rain for next weekend won't renew flooding re the Ohio River and other water branches. Thankful for these current dry days between systems and a taste of Spring temp wise.

River is supposed to fall below 35 feet on Wednesday. Pool is about 26 feet, so unless we get biblical rains, it should be ok.

I agree and the heaviest rains over the next week look to be southwest of here and that is good for this region.

[MVWxObserver]

Hopefully any rain for next weekend won't renew flooding re the Ohio River and other water branches. Thankful for these current dry days between systems and a taste of Spring temp wise.

River is supposed to fall below 35 feet on Wednesday. Pool is about 26 feet, so unless we get biblical rains, it should be ok.

Great to hear, Aaron

Prayerfully search recovery crews will be able to locate that 6 yr-old boy's body before too much longer. The boy's "mother" and her bf dumped him near Lawrenceburg. **SMH**

[MVWxObserver]

Currently a week from today ...

...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
On Sunday and Monday, the upper-level low is forecast to move
eastward across the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to move quickly eastward from the Great Plains into the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Severe thunderstorms will be possible
along parts of the front both on Sunday and on Monday. At this time,
models suggest that the greatest severe threat will be located in
eastern parts of the southern Plains and in the Ozarks on Sunday.
The severe threat should shift eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Monday. However, uncertainty concerning the timing of the
system is substantial at this extended range in the forecast period.

[MVWxObserver]

Good Morning and looking forward to the next 3 days. Was able to burn some leftover tree limbs and leaves yesterday with a nice slow burn that lasted about 8 hours. Glad to see some rain late this week. Next week can we get some snow and its still on the table but again snow this time of year is never easy. The Russia winter like Bgoney continues and I still believe the latest I ever saw heavy snow in much of Russia during November instead of October was a big big reason the NH has seen some really decent cold outbreaks compared to the last several years. Last year was wild in many aspects including the weather. Severe weather and someone mentioned the GOM being really warm and yes and no as warmer temps in the eastern gulf but the western gulf was cooler than normal and even the eastern gulf towards Florida should have seen some cooling with the latest cold spell for us and cool spell for them. Will we get some severe weather in March and maybe the last week but still believe a big uptick in April..

Hi Tim,

Currently the convective outlook discussion has a chance of severe for the OV a week from today.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and looking forward to the next 3 days. Was able to burn some leftover tree limbs and leaves yesterday with a nice slow burn that lasted about 8 hours. Glad to see some rain late this week. Next week can we get some snow and its still on the table but again snow this time of year is never easy. The Russia winter like Bgoney continues and I still believe the latest I ever saw heavy snow in much of Russia during November instead of October was a big big reason the NH has seen some really decent cold outbreaks compared to the last several years. Last year was wild in many aspects including the weather. Severe weather and someone mentioned the GOM being really warm and yes and no as warmer temps in the eastern gulf but the western gulf was cooler than normal and even the eastern gulf towards Florida should have seen some cooling with the latest cold spell for us and cool spell for them. Will we get some severe weather in March and maybe the last week but still believe a big uptick in April..

Hi Tim,

Currently the convective outlook discussion has a chance of severe for the OV a week from today.

Good Morning Eric, hope all is well. I have been looking at this and at this point I believe we may be a little to far north and east. Sure we can have thunder and lightning but so far the set up to me looks like we should be okay. Still believe colder air comes in later next week and that is a time period I see for maybe some snow chances though way to early for that prediction. So still imo looking more at very late March and early April though I believe its going to be a rather active April and May for severe weather. Love the rains but not the severe weather. Summer and a sneak peak looks to be warmer than normal imo but much of that will be dependent how dry we are and folks to the south during the next couple of months. Rain breeds rain and we know if it gets dry that dry breeds dry and in the summer that usually means hot.

[tron777]

If the GFS is right with its slower solution then we'd have a shot at severe early next week. Timing is everything. We would need some instability and a frontal passage in the afternoon. IF you get any clouds / or morning rainfall it won't happen this time of year. IT has the front coming thru on Friday. A dry and cool weekend then heavy rain with the warm front Monday of next week with and again Wed with the cold frontal passage. Lots of changes with the guidance from about Friday onwards as the models try and figure out the front. I think the front stalls in the OV some where and that's what we need to focus our attention on from Fri - next week.

[Bgoney]

I think models in the mid and long range are adjusting from their terrible forecast a week ago of a potent and quick entrance of MJO in phases 8-1-2. That doesn't appear to be in the cards as once modeled, so we have the SE ridge holding on against a normal March trough. Hence the front slowly moves east , and south only so far with normal March coolness before heading back north early next week along with another shot of warmer air . Rainfall amounts are sketchy at best. That's the way I see it from latest modeling

[tron777]

12Z Euro is looking quite wet for next week.

[tron777]

64 / 29 at CVG as of 3pm... gorgeous!

[MVWxObserver]

Hi Tim,

My folks and myself are doing well and I hope that you and your family are too.

Gov DeWine has announced vaccines will start to be distributed to people 50+ starting Thurs 3/11 so am hoping to finally get needled later this week.

Currently 63 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

Awesome news, Eric! Hope my Brother can get his too down the road once they open it up for 40 something's.

[Bgoney]

High of 65 here, a 42 degree recovery from this morning

[Bgoney]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
100 PM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

OHZ055-056-063>065-072>074-078>082-088-090000-
Franklin OH-Licking-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Clinton-Ross-
Hocking-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Columbus, Newark, Washington Court House,
Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Wilmington, Blanchester,
Chillicothe, Logan, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro,
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth,
and Wheelersburg
100 PM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO...

A very dry airmass is in place over the region, with humidity
values below 25% in some areas. Fuels on the ground are reacting
quickly to the lack of moisture and are receptive to catching fire
if fire is introduced.

The region seeing the driest air is southeast of the I-71
corridor, covering the Hocking Hills, Scioto Valley, and portions
of southwest Ohio east of metro Cincinnati.

Winds in this area are expected to be under 10 mph from the
southwest. It is possible that a few errant gusts during peak
heating could be found in the 20-25 mph range.

[tron777]

I had a low of 25 this morning and a high of 65 today this afternoon so a 40 degree temp difference here. :grin: That's what can happen with a very dry airmass in place plus the fact that we could actually use some rain to be honest. The river says otherwise but most people's backyards could use some.

[Bgoney]

No thank you with any rain here for a while yet. Cold temps of late and cold ground temps offer a very slow drying process. The rest of the week will be most welcome

[tron777]

No thank you with any rain here for a while yet. Cold temps of late and cold ground temps offer a very slow drying process. The rest of the week will be most welcome

With the clay soil we have here in KY, it doesn't hold moisture long like if you had real top soil. It's not terrible since we've had cool weather but to get the spring vegetation going around here, more rain is needed. The surface is dry here and cracks are starting to form on the clay surface. A couple of inches down is fine though so just the surface only. It just takes more rain when you have crappy clay to keep things going. I have not seen it this dry during March in several years. Normally the ground is a mud pit in March.

[tron777]

Good morning all! We've got a shot at getting close to 70 today thru Thursday before rain moves in with a cold front by Friday. The front now looks to slip south of the area for a cloudy, but cool weekend. It may actually turn out to be dry. Temps near 50. Then the front comes back as a warm front by Monday with rain returning. The front looks to stick around for a good chunk of next week so flooding concerns on the Ohio may again return should repeated rounds of heavy rain occur upstream from Cincinnati. Models currently look to be coming in with rainfall amounts over 2" or more depending on the model you choose. We shall see how things shake out in the days to come.