Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 11:58 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 11:55 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 11:53 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 11:47 am Snow ratios will be higher then I originally expected. We will see less QPF but temps are colder as well as the thermals. As BG said 0.10" of liquid could be 2.5 to 3" of snow instead of 1.5 to 2" as I was originally thinking a few days ago.
Les as we know its always a math problem lol. And if the models are off just like you mentioned 0.10 makes a big difference on the high end and low end. To me with this event is most of the snow will be while its dark and that was always one of the reasons I went higher late Sunday. Still fun to watch and see how this plays out and really the bigger busts so far have been in parts of the central plains especially north of KC and St.Louis
Models did not handle this mornings snow well either. LOU area had 1" totals and most models had every little occurring.

Exactly Les and we don't often see these kind of ratio's. So I agree with over the next two mornings slick spots will no doubt be around and sometimes the smaller snows are more of a problem then a bigger snow especially with the temps we will have over the next few days. Nothing impassible but some folks will drive fast especially if the accumulations are not that big on the roads.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 12:04 pm**

I'd say that we will need to nowcast this later on this evening. Most folks have made their accumulation calls now so we'll see how things go as time goes on. 12pm and it's only 16 degrees. IMO temps will be in the teens when the snow does fall.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 12:39 pm**

We are seeing flooding begin in Ripley. It's already creeped pretty high. If it freezes...what a mess.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 12:41 pm**

CB is sticking to his guns stating the Advisory needs to be moved into the Cincinnati area. He may be right.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 1:05 pm**

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 12:39 pm We are seeing flooding begin in Ripley. It's already creeped pretty high. If it freezes...what a mess.

I think the river is forecast to crest at Cincinnati this coming Friday nearing 55 or 56 feet.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 1:07 pm**

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 12:41 pm CB is sticking to his guns stating the Advisory needs to be moved into the Cincinnati area. He may be right.

I just read that. Link for those folks who are interewsted in what we're talking about here.

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=70190

We'll see I guess. Even 1" of snow would make for some slick spots just due to how cold it is. 2" or more and you could certainly run into some problems.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 1:11 pm**

The energy in Nebraska looks healthy. Is that indictive of a northern bump? Hmm.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 1:21 pm**

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 1:11 pm The energy in Nebraska looks healthy. Is that indictive of a northern bump? Hmm.

You could say that, but the problem is that you've also got the displaced Polar Vortex dropping into the CONUS too trying to suppress everything to the south. It's a big reason why the upper level energy won't be phasing into this system to allow for that more northern track. Had the upper low phased in, we'd be looking at a 6-8"+ event ourselves and 1-2 feet for the mid Atlantic and New England. Since the upper low will remain detached from the southern stream wave, we don't get the northern track, we just get clipped by the southern stream as a result. I do think the best snow for the entire event may come Wed night with the upper low itself.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 1:39 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 1:21 pm
rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 1:11 pm The energy in Nebraska looks healthy. Is that indictive of a northern bump? Hmm.
You could say that, but the problem is that you've also got the displaced Polar Vortex dropping into the CONUS too trying to suppress everything to the south. It's a big reason why the upper level energy won't be phasing into this system to allow for that more northern track. Had the upper low phased in, we'd be looking at a 6-8"+ event ourselves and 1-2 feet for the mid Atlantic and New England. Since the upper low will remain detached from the southern stream wave, we don't get the northern track, we just get clipped by the southern stream as a result. I do think the best snow for the entire event may come Wed night with the upper low itself.

Thanks, Les. That cleared alot up for me. What's happening is make much more sense now.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 2:08 pm**

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 1:39 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 1:21 pm
rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 1:11 pm The energy in Nebraska looks healthy. Is that indictive of a northern bump? Hmm.
You could say that, but the problem is that you've also got the displaced Polar Vortex dropping into the CONUS too trying to suppress everything to the south. It's a big reason why the upper level energy won't be phasing into this system to allow for that more northern track. Had the upper low phased in, we'd be looking at a 6-8"+ event ourselves and 1-2 feet for the mid Atlantic and New England. Since the upper low will remain detached from the southern stream wave, we don't get the northern track, we just get clipped by the southern stream as a result. I do think the best snow for the entire event may come Wed night with the upper low itself.
Thanks, Les. That cleared alot up for me. What's happening is make much more sense now.

You're welcome Byron! What could have been, you know?

Oh well... it's been a fantastic winter for our area anyway from an overall standpoint.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 2:48 pm**

Noticed Louisville NWS pushed their winter storm warning north by a county or so this afternoon

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 4:30 pm**

NAM is still south but the HRRR came significantly north. Gives Cincy 2.5" of snow

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 4:33 pm**

18Z RGEM also made a decent jump north. SREF mean ticked down to 1.35" now for CVG.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:08 pm**

No changes for me from yesterday’s guess. An inch or less from both events, so a total of 2”or less is possible for the majority of AVland. Keeping the “less” in the forecast because I’m just not sure I can guarantee an inch for a lot of AVland

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:16 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:08 pm No changes for me from yesterday’s guess. An inch or less from both events, so a total of 2”or less is possible for the majority of AVland. Keeping the “less” in the forecast because I’m just not sure I can guarantee an inch for a lot of AVland

I agree. Best chance is S of the river for sure in the morning then I think everyone has an equal chance of getting an inch with the upper low Wed night.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:42 pm**

Good Evening and no changes and my guess is around 1a-2a in the morning they will extend the winter weather advisory probably to cover the local area. Seen this way too often and sometimes it happens as the snow is falling. Roads are frozen and going to be very slippery imo plus not works of the roads when its this cold. So yes 1-4 locally before Thursday is over,1-2 near the I-70 area and 3-5 near I-64 but some totals could go over 6 inches.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:44 pm**

I have been out a lot this evening and the hounds refuse to help unless I give treats. Does it still look 1-2 inches for the Grant County area?

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:49 pm**

allowat3 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:44 pm I have been out a lot this evening and the hounds refuse to help unless I give treats. Does it still look 1-2 inches for the Grant County area?

Yes and my guess more than likely higher than 2 inches imo

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:52 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:49 pm
allowat3 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:44 pm I have been out a lot this evening and the hounds refuse to help unless I give treats. Does it still look 1-2 inches for the Grant County area?
Yes and my guess more than likely higher than 2 inches imo

Thanks for the update!

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:31 pm**

allowat3 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:52 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:49 pm
allowat3 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:44 pm I have been out a lot this evening and the hounds refuse to help unless I give treats. Does it still look 1-2 inches for the Grant County area?
Yes and my guess more than likely higher than 2 inches imo
Thanks for the update!

2" for Williamstown is easily doable, I am with Tim.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:35 pm**

Radar shows a nice snow shield over Missouri getting into S ILL now and into Western KY. Paducah is reporting moderate snow and 21. Hopkinsville mixed precip and 27. S of I-64 looks to be the sweet spot with this one per banded nature of the snow and radar presentation.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 7:17 pm**

Follow the higher DPs if you want to follow the most noteworthy snow totals for tonight and early morning . Mid teens and low 20s in central and southern KY ours is 4 currently , with much of NK and Southern OH mid single digits

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 10:28 pm**

Maps for round one and round two.

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2025 10:31 pm**

Wed PM - Thu AM will have a nice fluff factor. Models not good with this. 1-2" easily for everyone, localized higher.

Posted: **Wed Feb 19, 2025 2:40 am**

any snow reports>? what are you guys seeing out there right now? was watching some live streams from Missouri and Arkansas . I am suppose to get flurries from this on thursday

Absolute Vorticity

February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event

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