Absolute Vorticity

18Z GEFS Mean is coming in a little friskier too. An inch for N Cincy burbs. 2.5" for CVG and 4" or so for the SE Crew.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2025 4:54 pm 18Z GFS is up to 0.19" for QPF so it is finally joining the rest of the guidance. A blend of all models yields 0.20" at CVG for QPF. 2" of snow at a 10:1 ratio so a call of 1-2" is perfect.

ILNs snow map matches pretty good with the forecast for AVland

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2025 5:28 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2025 4:54 pm 18Z GFS is up to 0.19" for QPF so it is finally joining the rest of the guidance. A blend of all models yields 0.20" at CVG for QPF. 2" of snow at a 10:1 ratio so a call of 1-2" is perfect.

ILNs snow map matches pretty good with the forecast for AVland

Absolutely!

CBs Call as of this afternoon:

Just can’t afford any shift south overnight. Plenty of leeway for a northward shift to get more of the I70 crew involved but a 20-30 mile shift south and everybody loses

Guys everything seems fine with the ongoing forecast. Always going to be a few busts here and there as you get with every storm but I believe for the most part things are happening the way we thought should happen. Two more systems this week and though the Wednesday storm itself is stronger does not mean you get as much precip. The winter weather should stay to the west for the most part and yes maybe a brief period at the start and at the end of a little mix but no concerns with travel. Saturday's storm has trended further south but still mainly a rain system but if the southward trend continue we may need to add a little snow on Sunday but we understand that is usually not good for accumulation.

Next week we may have a different problem and that is the cold goes to far south and we are looking for a northward shift. Again way too early and will deal with next after we get through this week.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
4 inches.

* WHERE...In Kentucky, Bracken, Grant, Owen, and Pendleton Counties.
In Ohio, Adams and Scioto Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel conditions will likely become very difficult.
Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could
impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.
^^^ thats strange criteria for a warning. 3-4" for a winter storm warning? that is a winter advisory here. to get a storm warning it would have to be a 6"+ type storm

Cmon shift 50miles north!!!

Good morning! Snow is moving into the area now. It'll be virga at first but eventually it'll be making it to the ground. Good luck to all! I am not expecting much at work in Mason. Wish I was here at home for this event.

No bumps north overnight unfortunately, if anything a slight squeeze of the moisture shield south. It’s always been for the most part a counties bordering the river event for AV country , so good luck to everyone .

Per KY traffic cams, it is snowing as far north as Oldham Co on I-71. Carroll Co cam showed nothing so it'll be a while before we see anything locally.

Cvg still reporting virga or overcast . Pavement temps in NKY are at the upper 30s so would take some time for snow to overcome that and stick to roads , if it ever does.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 6:42 am Cvg still reporting virga or overcast . Pavement temps in NKY are at the upper 30s so would take some time for snow to overcome that and stick to roads , if it ever does.

Def looking like a car topper / grass coverer kind of thing.

BG's video will be starting up shortly.

Best of luck to you Cincy and south posters! Looks like a virga storm here! LOL

Seeing a report of 5" snow just SE of Lexington.

Some flakes floating in the air in Indian hill

1/2" being reported in Carrolton, KY.

Ring camera has a dusting on the car at home

CVG reporting light snow now and 32 Nothing yet here in Mason, (which I expected).

going with about 1" here . starting this evening

Will us northern folks see some flakes this afternoon and evening? I know it won’t be much but better than nothing.

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 9:45 am Will us northern folks see some flakes this afternoon and evening? I know it won’t be much but better than nothing.

It'll be tough... if you do see some flakes, I'd consider it a win.

Checked the cams at home and we've got a dusting so far.