Absolute Vorticity

The PV and a SSW were never in the reliable model range. The usual suspects love to hype those long range runs of showing a split. We’ll see a stretched PV in the coming weeks to deliver cold enough air periodically moving forward

With today's event and really when we first start out with the precip I believe sleet could fall for a very short period. Again no problems locally on the roads and then after that we turn to rain. Further north the better shot of seeing the sleet for a longer period but even there I would expect all liquid to fall after that brief period.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 9:52 am The PV and a SSW were never in the reliable model range. The usual suspects love to hype those long range runs of showing a split. We’ll see a stretched PV in the coming weeks to deliver cold enough air periodically moving forward

A stretched PV is very possible and with the snow cover since November in southern Canada the cold air has a hwy to bring it into the USA. Patterns repeat and see no reason why this won't happen again. We look at January and after the big storm we were mainly cold and dry but getting the PV stretching in mid-February combined with the GOM getting into spring mode the chances of the two meeting are good but when and where is still up in the air. No doubt after the Saturday storm a decent shot of cold is headed this way so with the next system where will the two decide to dance.

Trev, when I mentioned the next 10-14 days as stormy I was looking at storminess meaning winter conditions possible. I agree the pattern is going to be busy through March.

With the pattern being so active.... the models are struggling for next week with regards to which wave to blow up. Today's 12Z GFS has moisture lurking south of us as early now as Sun night into Monday. Even on Tues / Wed most of it south. Finally, the model has a better push of moisture coming in Wed night and Thurs. Just a very tough forecast right now for next week with extremely low confidence.

12Z CMC is still cold and suppressed for next week while the ICON model has us getting clipped on Tues with more light snow on Wed. Pick your model, pick your solution. If you don't like it, it'll change every 6 hours.

12Z GEFS keeps bumping south with each successive run, so that's not good either lol

Way to early on any kind of forecast next week. Several pieces of energy and when that happens each run a model will pick a different piece to form a storm. One item I do agree with next week is a decent shot of cold and if you have the cold around then we just roll the dice and see what happens. By the weekend the models will probably show something completely different and will the two jets get together and have a party somewhere.

How about that 12z Euro?? Wowzers...

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 1:58 pm How about that 12z Euro?? Wowzers...

Could you post it please? I'm busy working. Thank you!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 2:03 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 1:58 pm How about that 12z Euro?? Wowzers...

Could you post it please? I'm busy working. Thank you!

Totals for the entire run...

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 2:11 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 2:03 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 1:58 pm How about that 12z Euro?? Wowzers...

Could you post it please? I'm busy working. Thank you!

Totals for the entire run...

Googly Moogly!

I don't think I've ever seen the Euro go that bonkers before. Yeah it used to only go out to Day 10 and now it goes out to 14 days but still... WOW! No way in hell that it'll ever verify. If it does, I will take a 1 week break from posting on this forum. Actually, if we got half of that, I'd take a 1 week break.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 2:11 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 2:03 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 1:58 pm How about that 12z Euro?? Wowzers...

Could you post it please? I'm busy working. Thank you!

Totals for the entire run...

Wowzers is right! That ice can just stay away!

Had a bit of sleet and rain mixed a bit ago. Temp 34.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 2:45 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 2:11 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 2:03 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 1:58 pm How about that 12z Euro?? Wowzers...

Could you post it please? I'm busy working. Thank you!

Totals for the entire run...

Wowzers is right! That ice can just stay away!

Sitting here planning my snowshoe trip to Northern Michigan and the Euro drops this on me...geez, what's a guy to do! Like the song...do I stay or do I go?

Mid 30s at CVG so not concerned about any icing down my way.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 2:46 pm Had a bit of sleet and rain mixed a bit ago. Temp 34.

Started as sleet here and now just rain. Temp 32, so probably ZR.

Edit: Wife called to say that there is a lot of brine on I75.

32 and looks like mainly freezing rain now.

All rain here. 33 MBY, 34 CVG. Rained all the way home from work too.

Is that latest info from the Euro on snow and ice for the next 3 years?

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 4:22 pm Is that latest info from the Euro on snow and ice for the next 3 years?

I looked and most of it is from 1 storm on the 16th. Major ice storm to a blizzard!

Euro and esp the EPS / Euro AI are all coming in more amp'ed up with these waves for next week versus the GFS and Canadian models. We will be seeing one of these solutions caving in by this weekend.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 4:47 pm Euro and esp the EPS / Euro AI are all coming in more amp'ed up with these waves for next week versus the GFS and Canadian models. We will be seeing one of these solutions caving in by this weekend.

Les at least we have something to talk about over the next several weeks. I say we have hit reboot and time to finish this season off with a bang.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 2:11 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 2:03 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 1:58 pm How about that 12z Euro?? Wowzers...

Could you post it please? I'm busy working. Thank you!

Totals for the entire run...

We got Nam'ed by the Euro!