Absolute Vorticity

CB's latest call! He has a start time of 9am to noon for us and 12-3pm for Eastern counties.

Gumm Ball's call from Local 12:

Pete1 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 5:24 pm

MJSun wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 5:20 pm Kids had one day of school this week (today) and back off tomorrow

Boone county schools were closed today and closed tomorrow already. 5 days closed this week.

I've been teaching at Georgetown for 22 years and I think this may be only the second time we have missed an entire week due to snow.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 7:23 pm

Pete1 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 5:24 pm

MJSun wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 5:20 pm Kids had one day of school this week (today) and back off tomorrow

Boone county schools were closed today and closed tomorrow already. 5 days closed this week.

I've been teaching at Georgetown for 22 years and I think this may be only the second time we have missed an entire week due to snow.

It has happened 3 or 4 times here in the 40 some years I have lived in Boone Co. Still a low occurrence, once every decade lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 7:33 pm

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 7:23 pm

Pete1 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 5:24 pm

MJSun wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 5:20 pm Kids had one day of school this week (today) and back off tomorrow

Boone county schools were closed today and closed tomorrow already. 5 days closed this week.

I've been teaching at Georgetown for 22 years and I think this may be only the second time we have missed an entire week due to snow.

It has happened 3 or 4 times here in the 40 some years I have lived in Boone Co. Still a low occurrence, once every decade lol

Ok, showing my age here. I was a grade schooler in the Boone County district during those bad winters of 77 and 78. Not a whole lot of warning about what was coming back in those times. One year they had us go in only to put us back on the busses a short couple hours later and then off for a couple solid weeks. I forget which year it was we missed so much that they cancelled spring break, extended the school days by a couple hours and the school year ended in mid-June just to get the equivalent of those required instructional days in.

Here's our forecast from OVWC LLC...

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/18Reqv9waK/

Good Evening and looks like everything is a go for this storm. Staying 2-4 locally and will there be an area somewhere in the Ohio Valley besides southern Kentucky and probably so but not seeing anything more than 5 inches. Can somebody get less than 2 inches and sure north of I-70 has a better shot but again seems like a widespread 2-4 inches with precip totals probably in that .20-.30. range locally.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 8:57 pm Good Evening and looks like everything is a go for this storm. Staying 2-4 locally and will there be an area somewhere in the Ohio Valley besides southern Kentucky and probably so but not seeing anything more than 5 inches. Can somebody get less than 2 inches and sure north of I-70 has a better shot but again seems like a widespread 2-4 inches with precip totals probably in that .20-.30. range locally.

Trev e.g. has 3-4 for north of I-70 which goes along with ILN's so I'll gladly take it, bro. I saw a 3.50" for here in Greenville earlier this evening on WDTN2.

Also it was chief met Brian Davis (WDTN2) or chief met Austin Chaney (WHIO7) who said during their wx segment this evening that this time around there probably won't be as sharp a cutoff including the Upper Miami Valley region (Darke, Mercer e.g. etc.) as places like Celina and St. Marys e.g. won't be just an inch or less like last weekend's storm.

https://scontent.fosu2-2.fna.fbcdn.net/ ... e=67867329

Trev's call map link above!

Well. I will be leaving an appointment in Clifton around 2:30 to drive up to Mason area. I think I’m understanding it may be starting to get messy? Thanks to all!

looks like im getting a few leftover crumbs again... enjoy it guys .

Most models remain near the .15-.25” qpf . Still like 2-4” for near and north of 71 and 1-3” near and south of 71

Good morning all! Coffee is brewing so let's get to tracking this system! SPC Mesopage has a 1010 MB low along the LA / Gulf Coast area as our cold front continues to slowly head our way. That front is located over Wisc, SE Iowa, and into MO. It is snowing in West TN like in Memphis. As of 5am ET, I checked West KY and nothing reaching the ground yet down there. No changes to the call here. 2-4" was my call for the last couple of days so sticking to it.

Latest thinking from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Short wave lifting out of the southern Plains ahead of a
northern stream trough will push into the lower Ohio Valley by
the end of the period. Lift out ahead of this system will result
in a shield of snow overspreading the region this afternoon.
Latest guidance trends are just a bit slower with onset. So
while accumulations will affect the evening rush hour along and
to the west of the I-75 corridor, including the Cincinnati and
Dayton metros, where an inch or two will occur by that time,
further east daytime accumulations will be lighter. There may
be little impact for the Columbus area by evening rush and if
there is, it appears that would be very late.

Highs will reach the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Snow will be ongoing at the start of the period but then move
off to the east tonight. Snow may linger just a bit longer into
the overnight hours generally along and north of I-70 as a
northern stream short wave quickly follows the initial southern
stream impulse, the latter being the primary forcing for this
snow event. There have been very minor downward adjustments in
precipitation amounts and thus storm total snow accumulation.
But overall, we are still expecting a 2 to 4 inch event area
wide with slight higher amounts in western counties and slightly
lower in eastern counties. Still cannot completely rule out a
few places reaching 4 inches in southeast Indiana, but that
potential has trended lower as well.

In the wake of this system, there will be another very weak
disturbance moving through on Saturday morning. In addition,
there will be a bit of moisture feed off of the southern end of
Lake Michigan which could result in some flurries or very light
snow from west central Ohio into central Ohio on Saturday
morning. Clouds will predominate but there could be some breaks
especially later in the day.

Not much diurnal range during this period. Lows will be in the
lower 20s with highs in the mid to upper 20s again, although a
few spots could get to 30.

QPF from the Global Models at CVG:

6Z NAM - 0.23"
6Z GFS - 0.17"
0Z Euro - 0.19"

Hopkinsville and Paducah are snowing per traffic cams.

0.21" of QPF at CVG from the 6Z Euro.

Good Morning and went to the grocery store once again lol. Les 2-4 looks good and using 15-1 the 2-4 inch totals look dead on. Fluffy snow so easier to shovel. Do we get to 32 on Sunday. Normally I would say no but this time we have a clipper to the north of us and these like to bring a little milder air on the southern end so its going to be close. Could be a day where its in the mid 20's and then a few hours of warming and your near 32. Next week a few clippers here and there and again just watch to see the path. A bigger system late next week and can we get some rain and no doubt a chance but again a week away but again the snow pack is widespread in the east and storms like to find the southern end of the packs and that will be well south of here and models will adjust some early next week.69 days until spring

While we await our snow... some good chasing action on YouTube down in AR ongoing.

1008 MB low is now on the coast of LA just a bit West of NOLA. We will watch the track of it today as well as keeping an eye on the speed of the cold front. W/V Loop even shows a small amount of Pacific moisture advecting into this system via the subtropical jet.


https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24

Watch the higher resolution guidance. Starting to juice up a bit. Keep an eye on that.

12Z HRRR has around 0.23" QPF for us. Some higher QPF to our West and SW for sure. Nice banding over S ILL showing up later on.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2025 8:18 am 12Z HRRR has around 0.23" QPF for us. Some higher QPF to our West and SW for sure. Nice banding over S ILL showing up later on.

Yes and with the HRRR yous see a low over southeast Kentucky of around 1005 and this shows me that along the GOM the storm is not getting stronger and the lowest pressure this model shows is the 1005 over southeast Kentucky. Interesting and should no problems in getting that 2-4 inches

Light snow now in Owensboro, KY and in IN Evansville is too.

QPF from the 9Z SREF Mean at CVG is 0.20"

Atmosphere is moistening up quite nicely so anytime after 11am flakes will begin to fly and get heavier as the afternoon wears on. My guess heaviest period between say 4-7 so not a nice rush hour by any means

From Marshall, KY along I-69 just West of KY Lake in Western KY: