Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:27 am 0.48" as of 7am at CVG. Looks like the 1/2" call was money! (Paging Bgoney!)

As of 8 am Cvg .53” they should be done other than some drizzle. Dayton .45”. Cbus .27” they still have a little more to come but should stay near or under a half.

Good Morning and nice light but steady rain and my total so far is 0.67. Southern areas doing better. Looks like a good call by all on this system and really the perfect rainfall where it mainly happens at night,not to heavy to run off and clouds during the day to keep moisture locked in.

I agree Tim... would love to be able to do it again on Sunday. Precip amounts with that one are going to be determined by the tropics.

Rain has stopped and so far 0.74 inches. Will see if we get a little more today with a scattered shower and overnight how far north will the rainfall extend and most likely south of the river.

Congratulations to Pres-Elect Trump and VP-Elect Vance as our country returns to common sense in January! Also Congratulations on the Senate win, too! The House is still to be decided so hopefully at some point will know that result today.

Currently 63 here in G'ville and progged for around 70 today.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:37 am Congratulations to Pres-Elect Trump and VP-Elect Vance as our country returns to common sense in January! Also Congratulations on the Senate win, too! The House is still to be decided so hopefully at some point will know that result today.

Currently 63 here in G'ville and progged for around 70 today.

Hey Eric and yes I believe the statement about common sense is the most important. Common sense is hard to find these days. Concerning the house and heard it may take weeks to get the final count on those races but hopefully that is at least 218 and would like to see 220 as a nice number.

.55" here

No doubt the cold front has stalled or moving very slow. Another round in my area and this will add to totals especially south and east of CVG. This is good news for many folks and finally we are seeing a change in the pattern. First is the change to a more active pattern which often happens in early November but the mild temps will stay for awhile and until the tropics are done expect mild temps to remain. Still looking at early Dec for a change to colder temps and again no firm date on this but watch the mjo over the next few weeks and if it remains in the phase 7-2 or dies in the cod this is a good sign to colder temps but if the mjo wakes up and decides to move in the 3- 6 phase this will extend the milder weather.

As off 11/4, the MJO is in Phase 8 per the Aussies. Do we get into Phase 1 or slide into the neutral circle? That needs to be watched over the next few days. I have been on the side of the modeling that shows the MJO weakening. We shall see!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:42 am As off 11/4, the MJO is in Phase 8 per the Aussies. Do we get into Phase 1 or slide into the neutral circle? That needs to be watched over the next few days. I have been on the side of the modeling that shows the MJO weakening. We shall see!

With the 500mb pattern continuing for the foreseeable future, beginning to wonder if the record -PDO can get even stronger

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 12:54 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:42 am As off 11/4, the MJO is in Phase 8 per the Aussies. Do we get into Phase 1 or slide into the neutral circle? That needs to be watched over the next few days. I have been on the side of the modeling that shows the MJO weakening. We shall see!

With the 500mb pattern continuing for the foreseeable future, beginning to wonder if the record -PDO can get even stronger

It did get stronger. The October reading is out and it's dropped from -3.54 for Sept to -3.81 for October.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 1:12 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 12:54 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:42 am As off 11/4, the MJO is in Phase 8 per the Aussies. Do we get into Phase 1 or slide into the neutral circle? That needs to be watched over the next few days. I have been on the side of the modeling that shows the MJO weakening. We shall see!

With the 500mb pattern continuing for the foreseeable future, beginning to wonder if the record -PDO can get even stronger

It did get stronger. The October reading is out and it's dropped from -3.54 for Sept to -3.81 for October.

That’s crazy!!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 1:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 1:12 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 12:54 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:42 am As off 11/4, the MJO is in Phase 8 per the Aussies. Do we get into Phase 1 or slide into the neutral circle? That needs to be watched over the next few days. I have been on the side of the modeling that shows the MJO weakening. We shall see!

With the 500mb pattern continuing for the foreseeable future, beginning to wonder if the record -PDO can get even stronger

It did get stronger. The October reading is out and it's dropped from -3.54 for Sept to -3.81 for October.

That’s crazy!!

Very much so! And it also tells us that the mild pattern will continue for the foreseeable future too as you mentioned correctly earlier today.

Another impressive day of record warmth

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 1:12 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 12:54 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:42 am As off 11/4, the MJO is in Phase 8 per the Aussies. Do we get into Phase 1 or slide into the neutral circle? That needs to be watched over the next few days. I have been on the side of the modeling that shows the MJO weakening. We shall see!

With the 500mb pattern continuing for the foreseeable future, beginning to wonder if the record -PDO can get even stronger

It did get stronger. The October reading is out and it's dropped from -3.54 for Sept to -3.81 for October.

Look at that beast of a PDO! We may be cooked this winter. Literally and figuratively! I have bad thoughts of 2011-12 going through my mind. Lol

dce wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:23 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 1:12 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 12:54 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:42 am As off 11/4, the MJO is in Phase 8 per the Aussies. Do we get into Phase 1 or slide into the neutral circle? That needs to be watched over the next few days. I have been on the side of the modeling that shows the MJO weakening. We shall see!

With the 500mb pattern continuing for the foreseeable future, beginning to wonder if the record -PDO can get even stronger

It did get stronger. The October reading is out and it's dropped from -3.54 for Sept to -3.81 for October.

Look at that beast of a PDO! We may be cooked this winter. Literally and figuratively! I have bad thoughts of 2011-12 going through my mind. Lol

Thus why I went low. Hope I am still not too high.