Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:27 am 0.48" as of 7am at CVG. Looks like the 1/2" call was money! (Paging Bgoney!)

As of 8 am Cvg .53” they should be done other than some drizzle. Dayton .45”. Cbus .27” they still have a little more to come but should stay near or under a half.

Good Morning and nice light but steady rain and my total so far is 0.67. Southern areas doing better. Looks like a good call by all on this system and really the perfect rainfall where it mainly happens at night,not to heavy to run off and clouds during the day to keep moisture locked in.

I agree Tim... would love to be able to do it again on Sunday. Precip amounts with that one are going to be determined by the tropics.

Rain has stopped and so far 0.74 inches. Will see if we get a little more today with a scattered shower and overnight how far north will the rainfall extend and most likely south of the river.

Congratulations to Pres-Elect Trump and VP-Elect Vance as our country returns to common sense in January! Also Congratulations on the Senate win, too! The House is still to be decided so hopefully at some point will know that result today.

Currently 63 here in G'ville and progged for around 70 today.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:37 am Congratulations to Pres-Elect Trump and VP-Elect Vance as our country returns to common sense in January! Also Congratulations on the Senate win, too! The House is still to be decided so hopefully at some point will know that result today.

Currently 63 here in G'ville and progged for around 70 today.

Hey Eric and yes I believe the statement about common sense is the most important. Common sense is hard to find these days. Concerning the house and heard it may take weeks to get the final count on those races but hopefully that is at least 218 and would like to see 220 as a nice number.

.55" here

No doubt the cold front has stalled or moving very slow. Another round in my area and this will add to totals especially south and east of CVG. This is good news for many folks and finally we are seeing a change in the pattern. First is the change to a more active pattern which often happens in early November but the mild temps will stay for awhile and until the tropics are done expect mild temps to remain. Still looking at early Dec for a change to colder temps and again no firm date on this but watch the mjo over the next few weeks and if it remains in the phase 7-2 or dies in the cod this is a good sign to colder temps but if the mjo wakes up and decides to move in the 3- 6 phase this will extend the milder weather.

As off 11/4, the MJO is in Phase 8 per the Aussies. Do we get into Phase 1 or slide into the neutral circle? That needs to be watched over the next few days. I have been on the side of the modeling that shows the MJO weakening. We shall see!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:42 am As off 11/4, the MJO is in Phase 8 per the Aussies. Do we get into Phase 1 or slide into the neutral circle? That needs to be watched over the next few days. I have been on the side of the modeling that shows the MJO weakening. We shall see!

With the 500mb pattern continuing for the foreseeable future, beginning to wonder if the record -PDO can get even stronger

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 12:54 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:42 am As off 11/4, the MJO is in Phase 8 per the Aussies. Do we get into Phase 1 or slide into the neutral circle? That needs to be watched over the next few days. I have been on the side of the modeling that shows the MJO weakening. We shall see!

With the 500mb pattern continuing for the foreseeable future, beginning to wonder if the record -PDO can get even stronger

It did get stronger. The October reading is out and it's dropped from -3.54 for Sept to -3.81 for October.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 1:12 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 12:54 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:42 am As off 11/4, the MJO is in Phase 8 per the Aussies. Do we get into Phase 1 or slide into the neutral circle? That needs to be watched over the next few days. I have been on the side of the modeling that shows the MJO weakening. We shall see!

With the 500mb pattern continuing for the foreseeable future, beginning to wonder if the record -PDO can get even stronger

It did get stronger. The October reading is out and it's dropped from -3.54 for Sept to -3.81 for October.

That’s crazy!!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 1:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 1:12 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 12:54 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:42 am As off 11/4, the MJO is in Phase 8 per the Aussies. Do we get into Phase 1 or slide into the neutral circle? That needs to be watched over the next few days. I have been on the side of the modeling that shows the MJO weakening. We shall see!

With the 500mb pattern continuing for the foreseeable future, beginning to wonder if the record -PDO can get even stronger

It did get stronger. The October reading is out and it's dropped from -3.54 for Sept to -3.81 for October.

That’s crazy!!

Very much so! And it also tells us that the mild pattern will continue for the foreseeable future too as you mentioned correctly earlier today.

Another impressive day of record warmth

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 1:12 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 12:54 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:42 am As off 11/4, the MJO is in Phase 8 per the Aussies. Do we get into Phase 1 or slide into the neutral circle? That needs to be watched over the next few days. I have been on the side of the modeling that shows the MJO weakening. We shall see!

With the 500mb pattern continuing for the foreseeable future, beginning to wonder if the record -PDO can get even stronger

It did get stronger. The October reading is out and it's dropped from -3.54 for Sept to -3.81 for October.

Look at that beast of a PDO! We may be cooked this winter. Literally and figuratively! I have bad thoughts of 2011-12 going through my mind. Lol

dce wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:23 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 1:12 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 12:54 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:42 am As off 11/4, the MJO is in Phase 8 per the Aussies. Do we get into Phase 1 or slide into the neutral circle? That needs to be watched over the next few days. I have been on the side of the modeling that shows the MJO weakening. We shall see!

With the 500mb pattern continuing for the foreseeable future, beginning to wonder if the record -PDO can get even stronger

It did get stronger. The October reading is out and it's dropped from -3.54 for Sept to -3.81 for October.

Look at that beast of a PDO! We may be cooked this winter. Literally and figuratively! I have bad thoughts of 2011-12 going through my mind. Lol

Thus why I went low. Hope I am still not too high.

Both CVG / DAY reached 71 and CMH 72 in the predawn today.

Good morning all! We are cloudy to start the day but we will see some sun as the day wears on. Temps in the low 60s. Same for tomorrow with plenty of sunshine. Next front comes in on Sunday but it now looks as if Rafael will not impact the CONUS and will not be injecting moisture ahead of our front. Rainfall amounts I think will be like this last one 1/2" or less. Then we dry out for Veteran's Day next week with our next system due in Tues night into Wed. Highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s. All of that is above normal for November.

Good Morning. Nice to see the rain yesterday and ended up with 0.77 so a tad higher than my forecast though CVG is the final say and I believe 0.56 was the final total for them. Nice to see the models come around with the tropical system and its not easy getting a tropical system into the mainland USA in November and especially when you have a huge trough to the northwest. Yes it would have been nice to add some tropical moisture but we will still get some rain later in the weekend. Good news is we stay busy with systems every 3 or 4 days and if we continue to see this through November drought conditions will start to ease and more than likely a wet winter should help. Lets hope next spring continues with some decent rains. We should continue to stay mild and yes November will go down with temps much above normal and again very common during a first year La Nina.

I do like seeing more systems to track also. just wish we could get something to change these well above normal temps up. It's going to be a while that is for sure. Ensembles continue to show a trough from Alaska south into Western Canada, and then extending down into the Western US with ridging from eastern Canada southward thru the SE CONUS. We nee to see changes over the Pacific (in terms of the severely -PDO) or it will stay mild IMO.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 6:53 am I do like seeing more systems to track also. just wish we could get something to change these well above normal temps up. It's going to be a while that is for sure. Ensembles continue to show a trough from Alaska south into Western Canada, and then extending down into the Western US with ridging from eastern Canada southward thru the SE CONUS. We nee to see changes over the Pacific (in terms of the severely -PDO) or it will stay mild IMO.

Good Morning Les. Cold building in Alaska and western Canada is common during early November is very common. As we get to the second half of the month that is when I want to see colder air starting to build further east into the northern and central plains and upper mid-west. The pattern has been stuck for sometime with the late tropical season in keeping us in the milder pattern. Once the tropics are done then this will also help in changing the pattern. Yes the pattern is already changing to a busier time in terms of systems moving across the country and a good first step. This winter will not be like last winter when I have never seen a winter where there was so much sunshine in our area. So if you get a mild winter the sunshine is fine with me. The problem locally is we tend to get the clouds with the mild air during the winter. At this point no changes to the upcoming winter though we know November can alter forecasts. The stubborn high off the east coast the past few months should weaken as the tropics die down which allows more systems to move through our area and then the east coast. Btw the grass is the nicest color I have seen since early spring which is sad but true.

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At this stage in November, I’d at least like to See some arctic origin high pressure infiltrating somewhere in Canada, we just aren’t seeing that anytime soon . Snow cover in all of southern Canada is below normal or no snow at all and not much to alleviate that for another week. Eventually, I guess at some point it starts to change but how long? Need to see those arctic highs in Canada!!! Last year at this time South Canada was actually normal for snow cover

Getting a trough over Alaska (+EPO) is the warmest pattern for North America that you can get! That floods Canada and the CONUS with mild Pacific air and that is what we are currently seeing. This pattern remains locked in for a while.