Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 6:36 pm Nice to see the NWS service at Cvg mentioned the chance of frost tonight. Again very isolated at best and pretty much what we expected. That could happened Tuesday night as well. Still believe late in the weekend or early next week a better shot of frost but not so much the temps but the drier ground could cause the problem. Again they main weather item is not the frost but the drier conditions that will last at least another week

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 6:48 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 6:36 pm Nice to see the NWS service at Cvg mentioned the chance of frost tonight. Again very isolated at best and pretty much what we expected. That could happened Tuesday night as well. Still believe late in the weekend or early next week a better shot of frost but not so much the temps but the drier ground could cause the problem. Again they main weather item is not the frost but the drier conditions that will last at least another week

Absolutely Tim with regards to the dryness! It'll be a while before the growing season ends though as far as frost / freeze goes. I think next week could feature some patchy frost. It should be a bit colder with the next cold front versus this one.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 6:53 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 6:48 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 6:36 pm Nice to see the NWS service at Cvg mentioned the chance of frost tonight. Again very isolated at best and pretty much what we expected. That could happened Tuesday night as well. Still believe late in the weekend or early next week a better shot of frost but not so much the temps but the drier ground could cause the problem. Again they main weather item is not the frost but the drier conditions that will last at least another week

Absolutely Tim with regards to the dryness! It'll be a while before the growing season ends though as far as frost / freeze goes. I think next week could feature some patchy frost. It should be a bit colder with the next cold front versus this one.

No doubt Les and next week I can see temps get in the low 30's but that can happen and no frost form and have seen temps in the upper 30's with a nice frost. Won't be a killing frost but no doubt a few days next week with temps in the upper 50's for highs and low-mid 30's for lows. Still believe models will get colder especially after Milton moves away from the mainland. These tropical systems just add to much warmth into the models and since we are talking mid-Oct the models should correct lower by late this week

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:37 am Good Morning and 45 here at the moment. Funny and we talk about frost and chances for that to happen. I have seen frost form in the upper 30's and I have seen temps in the upper 20's and no frost forms. Light wind and a clear sky helps but also a dry ground can keep frost from forming. I believe next week and probably Tuesday and Wednesday morning there will be frost. Will it be widespread and to early to make the prediction but folks who have their car outside may have a day or two with the light icing on the windows. This is a quick shot of cold air but one we can run at 32 though we know CVG will tend to be warmer because downtown Cincinnati and you get some warmth in those urban areas.

Temps are recorded I believe 6 feet above the ground and hope I have that correct so on the ground itself you often see temps vary 3-6 degrees either way and of course we see this in the winter where sometimes the air temp is higher than the ground temp and the opposite as well. That is key when we have rain/frz rain and a few degrees can make all the difference in the world.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:15 am This weeks cold was just to shallow for frost to form along with the other inhibitors mentioned. By that I mean we’ve seen a few areas dip into the 30’s but very briefly ,sometimes a few minutes . A longer duration of temps in the mid 30s would be needed with the current ground conditions

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:17 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:15 am This weeks cold was just to shallow for frost to form along with the other inhibitors mentioned. By that I mean we’ve seen a few areas dip into the 30’s but very briefly ,sometimes a few minutes . A longer duration of temps in the mid 30s would be needed with the current ground conditions

Great Post and the key is current ground conditions and I have seen this be a problem when we are dry and temps even get into the upper 20's. Several items we need to form frost and not always about the temp,sky cover and light winds.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:35 am We go from summer-like Sun to winter-like this morning lol.

Currently 37 here in G'ville.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:00 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:35 am We go from summer-like Sun to winter-like this morning lol.

Currently 37 here in G'ville.

HAO got down to 38 this morning. Anyone up north (including you Eric) see any patchy frost? I suppose an isolated location may have seen it, but whether or not we have anyone posting from that area is a whole nother story. As discussed previously, the chances look better for that early next week.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:12 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:00 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:35 am We go from summer-like Sun to winter-like this morning lol.

Currently 37 here in G'ville.

HAO got down to 38 this morning. Anyone up north (including you Eric) see any patchy frost? I suppose an isolated location may have seen it, but whether or not we have anyone posting from that area is a whole nother story. As discussed previously, the chances look better for that early next week.

I just checked and no frost here in my immediate area, Bro.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:15 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:12 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:00 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:35 am We go from summer-like Sun to winter-like this morning lol.

Currently 37 here in G'ville.

HAO got down to 38 this morning. Anyone up north (including you Eric) see any patchy frost? I suppose an isolated location may have seen it, but whether or not we have anyone posting from that area is a whole nother story. As discussed previously, the chances look better for that early next week.

I just checked and no frost here in my immediate area, Bro.

Thanks Bro! I doubt any occurred but you never know since I am located in the "tropics" of our forum coverage area.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 12:19 pm I think I am going to need to lower my temps for early next week. Still think the low 60s are good on Monday but we may stay in the 50s now for Tues and Wed of next week. Then as Tim has mentioned... Tues and Wed mornings could have that frost threat. We will of course keep you guys posted as more data comes in, and as we get closer as well. We won't see any precip, it'll be dry, but the air aloft would be cold enough for snow if we had any precip falling at night.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 1:28 pm Let's not rush that snowfall in too soon now! Us Halloween lovers just want to have nice seasonable weather thru 10/31. I'm good if you want 14" of white stuff on 11/1 though!