Absolute Vorticity

Surprised there is not a red flag warning out. 74 / 36 at CVG with the relative humidity only at 25%.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:57 pm Surprised there is not a red flag warning out. 74 / 36 at CVG with the relative humidity only at 25%.

If the winds were 15-20 , I think a lot of the region would have been

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 2:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:57 pm Surprised there is not a red flag warning out. 74 / 36 at CVG with the relative humidity only at 25%.

If the winds were 15-20 , I think a lot of the region would have been


IMG_2182.jpeg

True. I forgot about the lack of wind, which is probably a good thing as you mentioned.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 12:55 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 12:44 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 12:29 pm For late week 12z GFS has Francine performing well for for west KY/Indiana while being a major tease for Ohio, in the qpf department

That idea has been my concern for days now. Still is lol

Yep , early for a forecast, but atm this scenario has the higher probability over some others , for all the reasons talked about yesterday, IMO

EU is pretty much showing the same thing atm. You guys in N/KY have the best probability as far as cvgland goes,for now. Like you mentioned the other day , that big high to the north of us is only going to let the deep moisture move so far NE with those easterly winds

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 4:30 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 12:55 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 12:44 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 12:29 pm For late week 12z GFS has Francine performing well for for west KY/Indiana while being a major tease for Ohio, in the qpf department

That idea has been my concern for days now. Still is lol

Yep , early for a forecast, but atm this scenario has the higher probability over some others , for all the reasons talked about yesterday, IMO

EU is pretty much showing the same thing atm. You guys in N/KY have the best probability as far as cvgland goes,for now. Like you mentioned the other day , that big high to the north of us is only going to let the deep moisture move so far NE with those easterly winds

This is also how we get screwed in the wintertime with a low coming up from the GOM with snow breaking out over KY and only making it to the river and we have brisk dry East NE winds down sloping from the Apps.

Both CVG / CMH reached 80 and DAY 79 today.

**Lately AV whenever I click on a topic and to post its like molasses for it to turn over**

Good morning all! One last cool morning then the forecast turns warms into the 80s for highs today. Near 90 Wed and Thurs then we'll see how clouds and / or rain impacts things for Fri thru early next week. All eyes turn to the track of Francine.

Happy Birthday, Mjr! I hope you have a great day and thanks for being here!

Good Morning and another nice day though temps will get well into the 80's though humidity will stay low. Looks like the tropical system will stay mainly west of here though the with the first surge sometimes you get into some rain especially south and west. Then the systems sort hangs out to the southwest of us and over the weekend you can get a few showers here and there and more so during the afternoon hours. Temps over the weekend will be lower during the day with more clouds but higher at night for the same reason. Looking at next week we do have an tropical system that will likely be off the east coast. How far west this system goes is still up in the air but for us next week looks warm and the humidity levels will continue to be higher than this week but nothing that would get us even close to any kind of heat we have seen this summer.

I agree Tim. I see a lot of 80s in the extended range. I still believe 1 or 2 90 degree days are in the offing for this week. Going with Wed and Thurs being the best chances.

Good Morning Les and the 1st 10 days of September will be below normal in terms of temps and rainfall. The middle 10 days of the month will have above normal temps and rainfall will come down to the tropical system. The last 10 days is the toss up at the moment.

50 this morning at CVG. Agreed Tim.... good post!

Burn bans have been issued for numerous counties in SE/SC Ohio

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 4:35 am Happy Birthday, Mjr! I hope you have a great day and thanks for being here!

Thank You Les. I really enjoy this forum.
I turn 65 today! Man, that is a head scratcher.
God Bless All

Mjr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 9:59 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 4:35 am Happy Birthday, Mjr! I hope you have a great day and thanks for being here!

Thank You Les. I really enjoy this forum.
I turn 65 today! Man, that is a head scratcher.
God Bless All

Happy Birthday Mjr. I hope you have a wonderful day and just wild how quickly time goes by these days.

No changes so far from 12z. Models want to have that sharp cut-off of meaningful qpf somewhere between Louisville and cvg before Francine gets the life sucked out of it from the dryness and high pressure to our NE. Leaving Ohio mostly high and dry

81 with a dew of 45 at CVG per the 2pm reading. Mid 80s should do it for today. Definitely looking like Cincy / SW counties is the cut off for the tropical rainfall.

Good Afternoon and I find this tropical system interesting and what happens because of other things happening in the weather world. Again not a bad looking system and good deal of moisture but not the most I have ever seen. We have a huge trough over the west and in mid-September that is usually not the case so this will have a southwest to northeast motion imo to the tropical system. The jet along the gulf coast is rather strong as well for this time of year and it this may be able to help this system move quite quickly. Third is a strong high to the northeast of us and that is something does happen in mid-September. Yes I believe the dry air is going to hurt this system in our area plus the more I start looking at this it may be a quick hit early Friday then this storm gets push to the east rather quickly and we are only left with muggier air and you end up with a few showers here and there over the weekend. I believe some of the higher number to the west and southwest may not happen either and just because the movement may be quick and with tropical system its the slow moving ones that cause heavier rains. We will see of course but this is my take on how it may play out and yes tropical systems have never been my forte but I always like to give a shot on how I see this playing out.

Good morning! Upper 80s, perhaps 90 today with the mid and upper 80s expected tomorrow. Small shower chance on Friday maybe into Sat with Francine but the best chance will be SW of our Local area. Our SW counties have the best chance for some rain while everyone else is high and dry this weekend. More sunshine after this system passes with the upper 80s back by Tues of next week. Our next chance for rain comes around or just after the 20th with our next slow moving low / cold front. The drought obviously will continue to get worse long before it gets better. It is a big reason (along with an upper high to our NE) why Francine is falling apart. It literally is going to hit a brick wall of dry air and fall apart, dry up, if you will.

Yep , it really had no chance of making it into our area. With meaningful rain. GFS/EU did pretty well once it got to within a week of possibility.


Really starting to see major impacts around the area . Cracks in customers concrete driveways/sidewalks have exploded. Also seeing downspouts and the pvc pipes in the ground separating or misaligned. Some day when we do get rain , people will wonder why all of the sudden they’re having a wet basement. Not to mention severe damage to plants

Great Post Bgoney. I have always watered my foundation when we have dry spells in the summer. Grass will come back for the most part and yes some plants will be lost but the cost of foundation problems can be huge.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 6:16 am Great Post Bgoney. I have always watered my foundation when we have dry spells in the summer. Grass will come back for the most part and yes some plants will be lost but the cost of foundation problems can be huge.

Cost of plants and tree removals are nothing to sneeze at. Water, water,water

Good Morning and the first 10 days of September are in the books and we are of course very dry but almost 2 degrees below normal for temps. The next 10 days should erase the below normal temps and get us back to normal but rainfall will be dependent for the most part with the remains of the tropical storm. Yes will have that surge of moisture on Friday but how far north will that reach and I believe models are still not exactly sure though they have pushed higher totals further south. This storm will bring up the humidity and over the weekend you may see a scattered shower or two but there will be plenty of clouds to hold temps down during the day. Next week and still some questions as we may have some tropical activity just off the east coast and we know this can throw up a roadblock. So all in all a messy period with some unknowns but chances for decent rains are looking rather bleak for most folks.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 6:16 am Great Post Bgoney. I have always watered my foundation when we have dry spells in the summer. Grass will come back for the most part and yes some plants will be lost but the cost of foundation problems can be huge.

I also agree and have been doing the same with regards to the foundation.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 10:56 pm Both CVG / CMH reached 80 and DAY 79 today.

**Lately AV whenever I click on a topic and to post its like molasses for it to turn over**

Back to normal now in turn over speed.

CVG, DAY and CMH all got to 85 on Mon.

CVG / CMH reached 86 and DAY 85 on Tues.