Absolute Vorticity

85 / 70 as of 4pm at CVG. A 50 / 50 chance that your location gets a t-shower later this afternoon and into the early evening as we watch that broken line over IN headed in our direction associated with the cold front.

Glad that line will be pushing through in the next half hour and then no impacts for the Redlegs vs Tigers series 7:10 opener.

I have 3 cousins, 2 from Greenville and the other from Monroe, OH at the game tonight.

Unfortunately Bally won't be airing the one tonight, but for those who get National - AppleTV+ enjoy!

CVG got to 86, DAY 83 and CMH 81 today.

86 as of 6pm at CVG. I had a high of 84 today. Got that weak little broken line moving into the region now then all systems go for fireworks tonight!

1230 UNK Eckerty Crawford IN 3832 8661 Tree down and brought down power lines with it. (LMK)

1245 UNK 1 NE Grantsburg Crawford IN 3830 8645 Another tree down. (LMK)

1524 UNK Livingston Rockcastle KY 3730 8421 A large limb was blown down onto US 25S blacking the roadway. (JKL)

1530 UNK 2 ENE Hare Laurel KY 3722 8413 A tree was blown down on Little Arthur Ridge Road near East Bernstadt. The event time is radar estimated. (JKL)

1602 UNK 1 WSW Malcomb Clay KY 3727 8386 A tree was reported down in the Robinson Creek community near Burning Springs in northern Clay County. The event time is radar estimated. (JKL)

1640 UNK Noetown Bell KY 3662 8375 Reports of trees down in the Polly Hollow area of Middlesboro ... including one tree on fire. Time estimated via radar. Report passed along via social media. (JKL)

1657 UNK 1 ESE Flintville Breathitt KY 3748 8329 A tree was downed on Riley Branch blocking the roadway. This was a social media report with picture. (JKL)

1702 UNK 1 NW Haginsville Breathitt KY 3758 8331 A public report via social media of utility poles broken and trees down on Lick Branch Road in the Noctor community. The time of the event is radar estimated. (JKL)

1740 UNK Garret Floyd KY 3748 8283 Tree down across Stonecoal Rd (KY 777). Power outages reported in the area. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

1823 UNK 2 WNW Virgie Pike KY 3734 8262 Trees down at Indian Fork Rd at Anderson Fork. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

1830 UNK 2 W Meta Pike KY 3758 8248 Trees down on KY 194 at Dry Branch. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

1847 UNK 1 S McAndrews Pike KY 3755 8226 Trees down in the Pinsonfork community. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

Looks like that line is weakening now so not much else is going to occur.

Good Morning and enjoy the next 2 days. Heat and also humidity will return and hopefully with some rainfall. Next week looks like a typical summer week but starting to see signs in the extended of a more dry and hot period. That would probably start to happen next weekend or into the following week. The main reason I see this happening is the cool fronts that have been coming out of Canada starting to slow the process plus that area may start to get warm this summer. Mid-July is no doubt a time we tend to get the hottest weather and could be right on time. We will see if any moisture from the Hurricane can make it this far north but that is not an easy task.

My bil Mike and friends of my folks and I in Roanoke Rapids, NC and Wake Forest / Raleigh are under an Excessive Heat Warning.

Good morning all and what a beautiful day for my party! Got the canopy up and the decorating done. Drinks are iced down! Just have to start grilling in a few hours... oh and light some fireworks off too!

Good Afternoon and what a beautiful day and this evening will be perfect for any outdoor activities. When we get these short term droughts in the summer there are 2 ways to break the drought. One way is a front that stalls and you get an upper low that sits and spins for a couple of days. Then second is a tropical system is able to work its way into the area. Guess what we may have a winner this summer. The models are trending more and more towards the leftovers of Beryl working it way into the Ohio Valley. If this does happen and depending on the track some folks can easily get 1-3 inches and maybe more if you are in the prime spot. This may not wipe out the drought for everyone but if this plays out no doubt a big step in the right direction. This would of course help the farmers but also maybe temper the heat for the latter half of July.

Holy Cow! At this rate its hard to believe the Redlegs swept the Spankmes in 3 this past week!

Their relief pitching = slop trough!

Currently 79 here in G'ville.

CVG reached 85, DAY 84 and CMH 86 today.

Good Morning and hope your firework display went well Les. Upcoming week is quite busy for early to mid-July. Tropical system with its remains heads north and what we can expect. Though the track has moved further west and if it holds true then the heaviest rains will be to the west. Looks like about a 150 mile wide area of impact so if you are in the sweet spot 3-6 inches of rain is possible but outside that area rain totals go way down to where some folks get little if any. So yes this is the kind of storm that can be a big time relief for drought conditions. The problem at the moment is its a tad to far west and will models try to adjust back to the east and that is where the Bermuda High will try and flex its muscle which is has this spring and summer keeping the really good moisture to the west and the Missouri Valley,Northern plains and Upper mid-west has done well this season.

I still believe though the week of July 15th we are off and running for a hot period and if we get little if any rain then those temps could be pushing 95 or higher very quickly where there is dry ground. So very important we get some decent rains and is we happen to get lucky that keeps temps from getting out of hand the week of the 15th but the humidity will be quite high.

88 so far at CVG today! Our show was a huge success! A cul-de-sac on from the street over from us had a nice capper on the night with a huge display too! My neighborhood lit it up between the houses on the subdivision, easily 19K in fireworks were shot last night! I am trying to obtain a full copy of the show... total carnage for 45 mins. Non stop action! Will post if one actually exists.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 5:56 pm 88 so far at CVG today! Our show was a huge success! A cul-de-sac on from the street over from us had a nice capper on the night with a huge display too! My neighborhood lit it up between the houses on the subdivision, easily 19K in fireworks were shot last night! I am trying to obtain a full copy of the show... total carnage for 45 mins. Non stop action! Will post if one actually exists.

Great to hear, Bro!

Also Congrats to your Tigers!

CVG 89'ed, DAY 86 and CMH 90 today.

At this rate I doubt the Redlegs could beat a Little League WS team.

My 3 cousins and a cousin's granddaughter went to the Redlegs game on Fri night and got soaked along with other fans from that short line of convection that went through the metro a half hour before the game start. Not a great weekend Redsville-wise! **SMH**

No offense Bro but I'm glad the Redlegs don't have to play the Tigers again this season.

so far July has been hot & humid i wonder if the whole month is gonna be like this

Good morning all! A hot one coming up today with 90 plus. Then we get humid and have high rain chances thanks to Beryl and a cold front combo for late Tues into Wed night. Then we briefly cool down but get into the 90+ rage again by this weekend. Thurs thru the upcoming weekend looks to be dry.

Good Morning. Busy week followed by and extended period of heat . Today hot and increasing humid as we wait for the remains of the tropical system to arrive. The path is getting there and looks to be west of the area so any large amounts of rain are unlikely locally. Illinois looks to be the winner and that is an area that has seen plenty of rain this season. The local amounts will be mainly with showers and thundershowers that develop away from the main surface low so amounts will vary quite a bit Tuesday and Wednesday. Need to be closer to Indy to have a better shot of an overall rain event and even they are close to the border line of getting 1-2 inches. Tornado's are always possible with these systems but they are usually very weak and with the main action overnight Tuesday I see less of a chance though not zero.

So what happens next and Thursday could still have a shower around but temps not bad. Then the heat parade I have been mentioning for many days will start its path and this imo could be a long term heat wave especially since we will still be in a short term drought which only adds more heat. My gut is telling me that we see at least a 14 day period of heat and humidity and sure we can always get a thundershower from time to time but with the ground so dry its not easy. How many days in a row of 90 plus and no ideal and yes can get that lone storm that keeps the temps down one day but I believe 14 days is not out of the question.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 3:13 am so far July has been hot & humid i wonder if the whole month is gonna be like this

Mid to late July is typically hot and humid, bro.

Model trends from the GFS/EU have seen an eastward shift in the track bringing the low up river near Louisville and near to just north of CVGland. So exact track is still uncertain but the trend is good news for a bigger chunk of the region for better coverage of rains (CVG/Dayton/Cbus)

I am hoping we can get an inch out Beryl but I will go with a 1/2" to 1" range for now. Heaviest West, lightest East.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 7:55 am I am hoping we can get an inch out Beryl but I will go with a 1/2" to 1" range for now. Heaviest West, lightest East.

I’d take that compared to what was expected 24hrs ago. And hope the better trends keep coming

You can look at the radar and showing signs of the humidity building up in the Ohio Valley. No rain but the increase in dew points will rise and should be in the low 70's by this evening. With the storm onshore my guess is the models will narrow down the path by the noon time runs. Again the area will be narrow of the heaviest rains and should be to the west and northwest of the low. The one good thing is we have a trough and dying cool front which can enhance the rain. There will be a sharp cutoff imo but still to early to nail that area down. I agree Les would love to see an inch of rain and some folks will get that but how widespread in our area is still the question. Whatever rain we get will soak in hopefully and Thursday is not bad but then hot and dry conditions expected for an extended period and believe once this tropical system is out of the way models are going to trend hotter for much of the eastern half of the country and even in areas that have been lucky this year with rainfall. Even Canada looks to warm up nicely and that means cool fronts that have invaded the USA much of the spring and early summer will probably end though you can always get one to hit the northern areas of the USA. I would expect the northwest to cool down and also the northeast USA and that could be the only way we get a chance of rain after Thursday is with a back door front but they tend to stay to our northeast or a day with a pop up thundershower but of course those are more isolated.

The CMC no doubt gets the credit for seeing that path of this system before the other 2 models. The CMC usually gets one or two nice wins in the winter but like I mentioned that model tends to get out of whack in that 24-72 hour period. This time its done well in that period as well. Normally the gfs tends to do better with tropical systems and the Euro not so much. Will watch this during the next few months and see if we are seeing one model outperform the others but this season its the CMC-1 and the other two models-0