Absolute Vorticity

I can finally see a decent visible shot now and there is clearing across Western KY and SW IN so I don't see why we won't get into that clear area ourselves by late morning. All you need is a couple of hours to recover and bingo! This is early April sunshine so the sun is very powerful this time of year and its rays are strong.

Hope the 3Z SREF is wrong. Significant TOR ingredients map has a 60% probability for most of us and 75% for NKY counties on south. ILN 12Z sounding will be out in the next hour as well as an update from the SPC. 12Z HRRR will also need to be looked at in another hour or so as well as 9Z SREF. 12Z NAM due out in a couple of hours also. Lots of new data will be coming in soon for us to look over.

Cell in southern Boone country heading my way as I hear a little thunder off in the distance. Could be a brief period of heavy rain

Back edge is approaching I-65 now so the complex is cooking right along. A little more light to mod rain to go then we can start the recovery process later this morning.

Not much talk on the extended and no doubt severe weather the concern today. Next week could also be busy and maybe not quite the severe outbreak but more rain chances. As we head deeper into April rain chances further south towards the gulf states start to wane as summer begins creeping in down there and hopefully we continue through June with rain chances but at least off to a good start in terms of rainfall.

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
North central Mason County in northern Kentucky...
Northeastern Bracken County in northern Kentucky...
Southern Brown County in southwestern Ohio...
Adams County in south central Ohio...
West central Pike County in south central Ohio...
Southeastern Highland County in south central Ohio...

* Until 900 AM EDT.

* At 819 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Higginsport,
moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, West Union, Peebles, Ripley, Augusta, Winchester,
Seaman, Kincaid Springs, Emerald, Blue Creek, Decatur,
Russellville, Dover, Higginsport, Cherry Fork, Sinking Spring,
Dunkinsville, May Hill, Locust Grove, and Bentonville.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 7:50 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 5:24 am HAPPY 52ND BIRTHDAY DOUG!!

Enjoy your special day despite the storminess, Wxbuddy!

Happy Birthday, Doug!

Yes sir, Happy birthday Doug!

Rainfall up to 1.3 inches here.

0.86" - Event total at CVG as of 8am.

Over the next few hours will start to look for some clearing in western Kentucky and western Indiana. No doubt the morning activity took some of the punch out but with the low itself well to the west we have plenty of time to recover. Trying to look at data with the models plus how the current system is acting and no doubt some severe weather later today but where is that western edge going to be located. Just to early to get the exact location and locally we may be at the western edge where the storms form this afternoon and folks east of here get the brunt. Will watch as these lines of storms form and see how quickly they are moving.

New 13z SPC day 1 outlook is in! No changes for us - still MOD risk. Looks like the ENH risk was shifted back to the west a bit in Indiana.

Got this from another weather board concerning Columbus: I71 in both directions in Worthington had 2 lanes under water. ODOT plows were out pushing water into sewer drains, which is the most work those plows have seen in years!

Also still in the 15% hatched tornado prob for this afternoon.

SPC Discussion for the OV from the updated outlook:

...OH Valley...
Water-vapor imagery loop overnight showed a southern-stream
short-wave trough associated with this morning's severe thunderstorm
activity straddling the OH River in central KY and southern IN.
This early-day thunderstorm complex will probably pose a risk for
wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes before it moves into
the central Appalachians towards midday (see MCD #341 for short-term
details). In its wake, a trailing outflow boundary/effective warm
frontal zone will likely advance northward into IN/OH later today
with lower to mid 60s progged to near I-70. Models continue to show
an appreciable window of opportunity in which cloud breaks/heating
and increasing low-level moisture contribute to moderate
destabilization during the afternoon. Have adjusted the western
envelope of severe probabilities farther west across IN to account
for greater destabilization than earlier forecast, but otherwise
have left the outlook unchanged across the OH Valley. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop by early to mid afternoon with
discrete supercells evolving from the more intense updrafts.
Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging gusts are expected
with the supercells that mature across the warm sector. Enlarged
and elongated hodographs imply fast storm motions and the
possibility for several cyclic tornadic supercells, some of which
may yield strong and long-lived tornadoes.

Farther east, strong to severe storms may continue across the
central Appalachians and perhaps move east into the Mid-Atlantic
states. Hail/wind appear to be the primary hazards with this
activity.

9Z SREF has the STP at 60% for everyone. 75% pocket is now to our SW. 60% is still pretty good for our area.

Looks like the back edge of the rain this morning is near Bloomington,In and moving quickly. So by 10am I expect much of the local area should be rain free. Then we wait as a surge of warm air heads north and we become quite unstable this afternoon and evening. Nice thundershower at the moment will the rumbling thunder as you hear the walls sort of rumble. I expect to be outside often this afternoon as I always want to be looking at the sky in all directions.

OH Valley

Water-vapor imagery loop overnight showed a southern-stream short-wave trough associated with this morning's severe thunderstorm activity straddling the OH River in central KY and southern IN. This early-day thunderstorm complex will probably pose a risk for wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes before it moves into the central Appalachians towards midday (see MCD #341 for short-term details). In its wake, a trailing outflow boundary/effective warm frontal zone will likely advance northward into IN/OH later today with lower to mid 60s progged to near I-70. Models continue to show an appreciable window of opportunity in which cloud breaks/heating and increasing low-level moisture contribute to moderate destabilization during the afternoon. Have adjusted the western envelope of severe probabilities farther west across IN to account for greater destabilization than earlier forecast, but otherwise have left the outlook unchanged across the OH Valley. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by early to mid afternoon with discrete supercells evolving from the more intense updrafts. Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging gusts are expected with the supercells that mature across the warm sector. Enlarged and elongated hodographs imply fast storm motions and the possibility for several cyclic tornadic supercells, some of which may yield strong and long-lived tornadoes.

Farther east, strong to severe storms may continue across the central Appalachians and perhaps move east into the Mid-Atlantic states. Hail/wind appear to be the primary hazards with this activity.

Nice thunder and rainstorm in Norwood. I would have loved to work from home today, but it's registration week, so its all hands on deck. Put my dog's bed in our master closet (he hates thunder anyway). Was following me around the house this morning with the earlier storm.

So is it primarily 1pm-10pm tonight for the danger zone?

MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:08 am Nice thunder and rainstorm in Norwood. I would have loved to work from home today, but it's registration week, so its all hands on deck. Put my dog's bed in our master closet (he hates thunder anyway). Was following me around the house this morning with the earlier storm.

So is it primarily 1pm-10pm tonight for the danger zone?

Yes. I'd say from this afternoon thru about 7 or 8pm tonight then we're in the clear severe wx wise.

We are dismissing at noon today to get students home in a timely fashion.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:13 am

MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:08 am Nice thunder and rainstorm in Norwood. I would have loved to work from home today, but it's registration week, so its all hands on deck. Put my dog's bed in our master closet (he hates thunder anyway). Was following me around the house this morning with the earlier storm.

So is it primarily 1pm-10pm tonight for the danger zone?

Yes. I'd say from this afternoon thru about 7 or 8pm tonight then we're in the clear severe wx wise.

Thank you! I am happy to hear that there is no overnight danger- that's the worst.

MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:17 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:13 am

MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:08 am Nice thunder and rainstorm in Norwood. I would have loved to work from home today, but it's registration week, so its all hands on deck. Put my dog's bed in our master closet (he hates thunder anyway). Was following me around the house this morning with the earlier storm.

So is it primarily 1pm-10pm tonight for the danger zone?

Yes. I'd say from this afternoon thru about 7 or 8pm tonight then we're in the clear severe wx wise.

Thank you! I am happy to hear that there is no overnight danger- that's the worst.

No doubt! It will be windy and turning colder with rain showers likely esp tomorrow and probably some snow flakes too Wed night into early Thurs. But the big storm threat once we get thru this evening will be over after that.

Good ole Midwest weather

If that hole of a clearing to our west doesn’t fill in over the next 2-4 hrs , then the higher end of severe cells will rule the region

12Z HRRR has a line of scattered super cells around 7pm coming into the Cincy Metro.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:22 am If that hole of a clearing to our west doesn’t fill in over the next 2-4 hrs , then the higher end of severe cells will rule the region




IMG_1646.jpeg

I'd say once this current batch clears out, we're going to see that patch move our way.