Absolute Vorticity

Good Morning Les and a decent day ahead. What about the next 72 hours and yes the next 24 look dry and mild. Friday we begin a nice 2 day event but how will it play out is still up in the air. The logical rain total to throw out is 1- 1 1/2 inches over the 2 days. Friday looks like mainly lighter rains and under 0.25 though heading northwest towards Indy you may see a tad more. Then the fun and games begin and with two jets trying to merge as usual we will see winners and losers depending if you want rain or no rain. A line of storms may form west to east across the northern gulf states and this can be a key piece on whether we get on some of the heavier totals. If these storms sort of train across for several hours overnight Friday and early Saturday this can help in keeping the heavy rain located in that area. If the storms are more isolated and not training I believe some of that moisture will be thrown northward. How much rain do we get in that 2am-10a period Saturday morning is key to the higher totals as after 10 or so it once again becomes more of a steady light rain temps falling during the day plus quite windy later in the day. Yes another nice soaking which we will take though its on the weekend and still believe if things fall in place somebody in the Ohio Valley can get totals near 3 inches with much of that in that 2a-10a period Saturday morning. Will start watching some of the shorter term models later today and see if they can give us any clues if and where that heavier rain may fall.

Hopefully the models will converge on a storm track. GFS is well NW, CMC is over us and the Euro is well SE. I am hoping for the Euro's solution since that is our chance to see 1"+ totals. Totals will be 0.75" or lower if the low tracks NW of us. Still a good soaking upcoming anyway you look at it, but the key to those heavier totals will be the storm track in my mind. I've been going with the Euro's solution and continue to do so.

Nice improvement in the rain department from the 00z GFS to the 06z.

00z had <0.50" for CVG and 06z has >1.00".

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 7:58 am Nice improvement in the rain department from the 00z GFS to the 06z.

00z had <0.50" for CVG and 06z has >1.00".

You know my stance. 1" or bust!

I look it as two different systems with both having rain for us. The first is a low traveling towards the great lakes Friday and this brings a warm front through us and we get some rain with that. The warm front probably stalls just north of us later Friday before the next systems forms to the south. Then we have the cold front heading towards us as the low in the gulf area moves northeast. This is fun to try and forecast as several moving parts and if either low gets to strong to fast then totals will be on the lower side. I expect both to gain strength but not out of hand and one reason I see a nice dose of rain locally. Later Friday afternoon and during the evening we may have a dry period before the rain starts to spread north from the low south of us. Just believe models are still trying to figure which piece of energy is the main one and sometimes with that confusion they can have a hard time placing where a low is strongest and sometimes in the wrong place as you mentioned the main 3 models have the low in different locations at this time. There is some dry air but with the first system even if we don't get a lot of rain it helps moisten the atmosphere up for later that night and on Saturday so it does some of the dirty work for the main system

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:02 am I look it as two different systems with both having rain for us. The first is a low traveling towards the great lakes Friday and this brings a warm front through us and we get some rain with that. The warm front probably stalls just north of us later Friday before the next systems forms to the south. Then we have the cold front heading towards us as the low in the gulf area moves northeast. This is fun to try and forecast as several moving parts and if either low gets to strong to fast then totals will be on the lower side. I expect both to gain strength but not out of hand and one reason I see a nice dose of rain locally. Later Friday afternoon and during the evening we may have a dry period before the rain starts to spread north from the low south of us. Just believe models are still trying to figure which piece of energy is the main one and sometimes with that confusion they can have a hard time placing where a low is strongest and sometimes in the wrong place as you mentioned the main 3 models have the low in different locations at this time. There is some dry air but with the first system even if we don't get a lot of rain it helps moisten the atmosphere up for later that night and on Saturday so it does some of the dirty work for the main system

It is a two part system Tim, I agree. It's a double barreled low pressure scenario where the first low heads into the Great Lakes Fri / Fri night and the second low becomes the stronger of the two and my call is with the Euro where it tracks SE of us on Sat putting us in the deformation zone for the best rainfall. Other models have the second low passing near or NW of us which opens the door for t-storms, but IMO it also would give us a bit less rainfall due to the coverage being more scattered and the deformation zone would be NW of us on Sat over towards the Indy area. That is the difference in my mind from getting 0.50-0.75" or 1" plus.

Here are totals from the first system. The heavier amounts I was expecting panned out very well. And like others have said, we will add to the bucket tomorrow and Saturday which will put us in much better shape.

I still think our wiggle room with the scenarios mentioned leave the region in the .75”-1.50” range as the general rule atm .

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:19 am I still think our wiggle room with the scenarios mentioned leave the region in the .75”-1.50” range as the general rule atm .

I'll agree with that.

16 years ago today began the March 7-8, 2008 blizzard. I'll never forget it! This is what an Apps runner right up the spine looks like from a modeling standpoint. A thing of beauty!

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us0307.php

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us0308.php

EDIT to add more info:

https://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/March_7_8_2008.html

From the boys:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20080308

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
353 AM EST THU MAR 6 2008

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>095-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>063-070>072-077-078-061700-
/O.NEW.KILN.WS.A.0005.080307T1200Z-080309T0000Z/
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
GREENE-FAYETTE OH-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…RICHMOND…CONNERSVILLE…LIBERTY…
BROOKVILLE…VERSAILLES…LAWRENCEBURG…RISING SUN…VEVAY…
CARROLLTON…WARSAW…BURLINGTON…INDEPENDENCE…ALEXANDRIA…
OWENTON…WILLIAMSTOWN…KENTON…CELINA…WAPAKONETA…
GREENVILLE…SIDNEY…BELLEFONTAINE…MARYSVILLE…DELAWARE…
PIQUA…URBANA…SPRINGFIELD…LONDON…COLUMBUS…NEWARK…
EATON…DAYTON…XENIA…WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE…HAMILTON…
LEBANON…WILMINGTON…CINCINNATI…MILFORD
353 AM EST THU MAR 6 2008


…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR FROM
CINCINNATI TO COLUMBUS. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE
REGION…ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ON TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY ALL SNOW WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR. 5 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS…WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FURTHER EAST WHERE SNOW MIXES WITH FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET.

THE EXACT PATH AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN QUESTION.
IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER WEST MORE WARM AIR WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION…CAUSING LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS AND MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION.
IF THE SYSTEM SLIDES FARTHER EAST…LESS MIXED PRECIPITATION WOULD
OCCUR AND SNOWFALL TOTALS WOULD BE HIGHER.

__________________________________________________________________________________

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
325 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2008

…EXTREME WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON…

.A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM WILL HIT AS A ONE TWO PUNCH.
THE INITIAL PUNCH TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW
INTENSITY THIS EVENING…BEFORE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WHEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT…THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE EXTREME
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ026-043>046-051>056-060>065-
070>073-077>080-082-080430-
/O.CAN.KILN.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-080308T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KILN.BZ.W.0001.080307T2025Z-080308T2100Z/
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-
BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-
MASON-HARDIN-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-
BROWN-HIGHLAND-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BROOKVILLE…VERSAILLES…
LAWRENCEBURG…RISING SUN…VEVAY…CARROLLTON…WARSAW…
BURLINGTON…INDEPENDENCE…ALEXANDRIA…OWENTON…WILLIAMSTOWN…
FALMOUTH…BROOKSVILLE…MOUNT OLIVET…MAYSVILLE…KENTON…
SIDNEY…BELLEFONTAINE…MARYSVILLE…DELAWARE…PIQUA…URBANA…
SPRINGFIELD…LONDON…COLUMBUS…NEWARK…EATON…DAYTON…
XENIA…WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE…CIRCLEVILLE…LANCASTER…
HAMILTON…LEBANON…WILMINGTON…CHILLICOTHE…CINCINNATI…
MILFORD…GEORGETOWN…HILLSBORO…PIKETON
325 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2008

…BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY…
…WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM WILL HIT AS A ONE TWO PUNCH.
THE INITIAL PUNCH TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW
INTENSITY THIS EVENING…BEFORE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WHEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. BEFORE
THE STORM ENDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON…YOU CAN EXPECT 10 TO 15 INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL CAUSE EXTREME WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
CAUSING WHITEOUT…AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

So glad you found the old watch / warning text Trev! LOVE that wording and the B-word!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:23 am 16 years ago today began the March 7-8, 2008 blizzard. I'll never forget it! This is what an Apps runner right up the spine looks like from a modeling standpoint. A thing of beauty!

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us0307.php

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us0308.php

EDIT to add more info:

https://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/March_7_8_2008.html

From the boys:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20080308

Days of yore.

I found the old AFD's too for this storm! If you go here, you can search and pull 'em right up!

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml

Example:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
409 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTER
WEATHER TO THE REGION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW NR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE INTO THE SE U.S.
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LOW...PCPN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. CRITICAL THICKNESSES BISECT THE FA. EXPECT SNOW NW OF A
LINE FROM FAIRFIELD CO. OH THRU HIGHLAND CO. INTO PENDLETON CO. KY.
SE OF THAT LINE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN...WITH SOME ZR THIS
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD WARM FOR A SNOW...RAIN MIX THIS AFTN.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT 1-2...1-3 INCHES FROM I-71 NW TODAY WITH 1 OR
1-2 SE. WENT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
THE SFC TONIGHT INTO SAT...PUSHING IT INTO WRN NC BY 12Z SAT...AND
INTO PA/NY BY 00Z SUN. ALL MIXED PCPN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST PCPN. THE NAM WAS
QUICKER TO BRING IN A LITTLE HEAVIER SNOW THIS AFTN. I PREFERRED
THE GFS SOLUTION WITH HAD A LITTLE HEAVIER SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT...AS H5 LOW GOES NEGATIVE TILT AS IT GOES BY.

EITHER WAY THE SNOW TOTALS WERE SCARILY CLOSE BY THE END OF
SATURDAY. 12-15 INCHES ALONG I-71 FROM JUST N OF HAMILTON CO UP
THRU COLUMBUS METRO. A 10-12 INCH SWATH ON THE EDGE OF THAT. SEE
5-7 INCHES IN MERCER CO OH AND 8-10 IN LEWIS AND SCIOTO.

AS LOW GOES BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND WILL CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW PROBLEMS...SO ADDED THAT TO THE ZONES.

SPED UP THE EXITING OF THE SNOW ON SAT...ONLY LINGERING A 20 POP
IN THE EXTREME E AND NE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN TEMPORARILY
ON SUNDAY MORNING. H5 LOW DROPPING INTO ERN US TROF WILL BRING A
WEAK CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. UPPED
POPS WITH THIS CLIPPER. SHOULD ONLY SEE ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW.

WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPS TONIGHT. DONT SEE A REAL COLD
NIGHT WITH THE SNOW AND CLOUDS. HIGHS ON SAT WERE A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...THEN WENT SEVERAL DEGREES

Back to our current weather and the 12Z NAM came in with the classic I-71 corridor screw zone. Mod to hvy rain well NW and SE of our local area. 0.25 to 0.50" falls within the lighter zone of precip. I am discounting this solution personally at this time.

BG StormTalk!

Great video by Brian and really plays out the different options and mostly what we have covered on here the past few days. I was looking at the next 2 days and never put much thought into today's weather and how with more moisture out ground level with the rain we have early in the week going to be tough in getting much sun. This winter we have done so well of getting sunny days instead of day like today but sooner or later we are getting those days and especially since I am all in on spring.

12Z GFS took a step to the SE with the second low track for Sat. 0.75 to 1.25" for the region is being shown.

12zGFS

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 10:50 am 12Z GFS took a step to the SE with the second low track for Sat. 0.75 to 1.25" for the region is being shown.

My guess Les is we will see amounts vary until probably Friday morning and hopefully by then the models have honed in on where the second system will track. Imo the second system you want the low almost on top of you because that is where the front is and more lift will be available. Many times we want the low 150 miles to the south but in this case I believe we need it to be within 30-50 miles to get your heaviest rainfall.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 11:27 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 10:50 am 12Z GFS took a step to the SE with the second low track for Sat. 0.75 to 1.25" for the region is being shown.

My guess Les is we will see amounts vary until probably Friday morning and hopefully by then the models have honed in on where the second system will track. Imo the second system you want the low almost on top of you because that is where the front is and more lift will be available. Many times we want the low 150 miles to the south but in this case I believe we need it to be within 30-50 miles to get your heaviest rainfall.

We are about 75% on the same page with this one. We are just differing on the low track for Sat and resulting heavy rain placement. We shall see if I need to adjust my thinking (probably will LOL) come tomorrow morning.

I was expecting the 50s today but the clouds are keeping us cool. Still only 48 degrees as of 1:45pm at CVG.

EDIT: Make that 49 as of the 2pm reading.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 1:55 pm I was expecting the 50s today but the clouds are keeping us cool. Still only 48 degrees as of 1:45pm at CVG.

EDIT: Make that 49 as of the 2pm reading.

Les we made it to 50.

Starting to look at some of the shorter term models and not saying they are correct but trying to get a feel what they are throwing out. The latest Nam really keeps us from getting any heavy rains and has one area to the northwest and another to the southeast. The one to the southeast is where the heaviest rain is with the track of the low and you need to be close to get in on the heavier rains. Again my guess this will change overnight to the placement of the heaviest rains and sure may be two areas that get hit harder but when that happens mother nature usually fines a way to even things out so other folks may get the short end.

Nothing to change my forecast of 1 - 1 1/2 inches but the important part of the forecast is the 2am-10am on Saturday. If the system to the northwest gets stronger this could throw a dry slot somewhere southeast of the low and that is a concern. Way too many moving pieces and sort of went the middle road on totals as some folks will probably end up with less but if you are in a place that gets the training of showers and thundershowers getting over 2 inches very possible and somebody nearing the 3 inch mark can happen.

Will look at this more on Friday morning to see the updated model runs and also what the current set up is at that time.