Absolute Vorticity

markalot wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:08 am We might not even get rain. Oh well.

LOL! It wouldn't surprise me to go thru this entire system completely dry.

What are the thoughts on Ripley Ohio. I love to watch this group and it is usually always correct.

jhimes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:52 am What are the thoughts on Ripley Ohio. I love to watch this group and it is usually always correct.

Hey I live in Ripley too!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:53 am 12Z NAM still showing Central KY on East in the game. The vast majority of us will be on the outside looking in for this event. Seems to be the story of this winter for the most part.

We really do live in the Screw Zone don't we?

WWA cancelled for Clermont westward - Brown and Adams still included.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:11 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:53 am 12Z NAM still showing Central KY on East in the game. The vast majority of us will be on the outside looking in for this event. Seems to be the story of this winter for the most part.

We really do live in the Screw Zone don't we?

Yes Sir we sure do!

ILN has trimmed away and re-issued the WWA for folks S and SE of the Cincy Metro.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1008 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

KYZ094>099-OHZ079-122030-
/O.CON.KILN.WW.Y.0005.240213T0000Z-240213T1200Z/
Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Brown-
Including the cities of Owenton, Williamstown, Crittenden,
Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet,
Maysville, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Ripley, and Aberdeen
1008 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to
one inch.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Kentucky and southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1008 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

KYZ100-OHZ081-088-122030-
/O.CON.KILN.WW.Y.0005.240213T0200Z-240213T1400Z/
Lewis-Adams-Scioto-
Including the cities of Tollesboro, Head Of Grassy, Camp Dix,
Vanceburg, West Union, Manchester, Peebles, Seaman, Winchester,
Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg
1008 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2
inches.

* WHERE...In Kentucky, Lewis County. In Ohio, Adams and Scioto
Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.

This is turning into a Lexington, KY special lol 12Z GFS is certainly leaning that way now.

The title is *chef's kiss*

MJSun wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:39 am The title is *chef's kiss*

I made the thread title trying to use reverse psychology and that has back fired!

Freaking classic winter!
Oh well!!!!!

Time for Spring!

12Z Euro pretty much has some slop for Eastern KY and that's about it on this run lol

The mjo may have something to say about the extended but not sold yet. Looks like its in phase 8 and heading to the COD which would not be bad in this case. The one problem would be if it headed back to the warmer phases of 4-6 then no doubt my forecast of colder is doomed. I see no signs of that at the moment and lets look at that in about a week. I still believe it has a chance to head into phase 1-3 so by this time next week I believe the mjo may be something to use in forecasting but at the moment its very weak and I believe not controlling the pattern like it has the past few weeks.

The models this winter are really starting to get comical. Actually, they already have been. This is just another example. The latest Euro is driving the Northeast snow lovers bonkers. 12 hours ago New York City was on the southern edge of the heavier snowfall. Most models had anywhere from 2-6 inches. The latest Euro puts New York City on the Northern edge of the heavier snowfall. Any further southward shift and New York will be on the northern edge looking south for heavy snow. Just like with our last snowstorm, models continue the southern trend all the way up until game time. I think for the rest of the winter we shouldn't even start a storm thread until less than 48 hours out from a modeled event. This weekend has potential in our area at the moment, but the way these models are performing it's safe to say what's being modeled for us this weekend ain't going to happen as currently shown!

Hey Doug.... this has been a trend actually for the last several winters where models amp up a storm system too much so you always get the southward or SE shift a day or two out from game time. The overall storm itself is not going to be strong even for new England so we are seeing the same thing happening there, that has happened to us. In the old days, we got the NW trend since models used to underestimate storms. Now the complete opposite keeps occurring.

At this rate ready for early Spring weather, short sleeves, baseball, and garden-variety / severe t-storms!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:20 pm Hey Doug.... this has been a trend actually for the last several winters where models amp up a storm system too much so you always get the southward or SE shift a day or two out from game time. The overall storm itself is not going to be strong even for new England so we are seeing the same thing happening there, that has happened to us. In the old days, we got the NW trend since models used to underestimate storms. Now the complete opposite keeps occurring.

Yes. That has been the trend with only a couple of exceptions. Regardless of modeling it's going to hit where it's going to hit. The thing with modeling is that it gets snow weenies hopes up only to be quickly and quite cruelly dashed!

Not sure why I am bothering to even post this, but here is the latest thinking from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

A developing surface low pressure system lifting northeast
across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon will translate to
the mid Atlantic Coast through tonight. The 12Z model suite
continues with the more southern track, with our area remaining
more on the northern edge of the deformation axis, so will
continue to trend the forecast in that direction.

Ahead of the system, rain will spread into southern portions of
our area heading into this evening. Some dynamic cooling will
allow for thermal profiles to drop off overnight with pcpn
transitioning over to snow toward midnight. By this time
however, drier air will be working in from the northwest, so it
looks like the best chance for any accumulations will be across
our far southeast. In these areas, suppose up to an inch of
slushy accumulations will be possible, with perhaps some
locally higher amounts down toward Lewis County. Will trim back
a bit more of the Winter Weather Advisory across our southwest,
and this may be able to be trimmed back even further later this
evening, depending on later models trends.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Any lingering snow across our far southeast should quickly
taper off Tuesday morning. A weak trough axis will pivot down
across the southern Great Lakes through the day on Tuesday.
This could lead to some increase in clouds across our north
during the day. Otherwise, high pressure will build east across
the southeastern US Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, with
dry conditions expected across our area. Highs on Tuesday will
be in the 40s with lows Tuesday night in the mid to upper 20s.

Heading up to my son's house on Friday and even they are too far north for snow lol. Looks like the heaviest snow on Thursday will miss them. I hope I see some snow on the ground at this house. Plan on being there Friday-Monday. At least the cold will be in place but hopefully during those 4 days I can see actual snow falling from the sky.

I guess the good thing is this system was always a tough one to get accumulations.Hopefully we get luckier this upcoming weekend and by then we should have colder air in place for any system to attack. Trying to be positive and was trying to figure out the next storm and what the title could be in our forum. Not sure we have tried the invisible storm and we could all say we got a foot of snow. Les we need to have the next name of a storm like they do on the weather channel and maybe that will change our luck. I am going with the Taylor Swift storm because that is really the opposite of what I want to see.

ILN has taken all snow wording out of the forecast for my county and has a 70% chance of rain this evening. I guess I am lousy at starting a storm thread too.

Mod to hvy rain exists S of I-64 in KY late this afternoon. Some nice frontogenic forcing down there (that was supposed to be here LOL) Anyway, It is an I-64 event once things changeover tonight.

No doubt the pressures are dropping quickly in eastern Kentucky while here we are starting to rise. Will be fun to see how much snow is able to accumulate and I still believe that is going to be an issue as they have been milder and wetter over the past few days.

One good thing is the storm that never happened let me finish my taxes.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:10 pm One good thing is the storm that never happened let me finish my taxes.