Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 6:10 am For our week 3 (14-20th) colder period , going with a range of 4-8 degrees below normal average mean. Going to feel plenty cold from where we’re coming from. Ensembles have been consistent for quite some time . Modified pacific air for the OV , with deeper arctic air staying north during this period anyways. Snow chances? As Les said we shall see.

Normals for CVG during week 3, 14-20th



IMG_1374.jpeg

I agree with that forecast. That’s right about what I was going with. I pointed out the increasing average highs yesterday and thank you for posting the graphic. Cooler yes but nothing too cold.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 7:05 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 6:10 am For our week 3 (14-20th) colder period , going with a range of 4-8 degrees below normal average mean. Going to feel plenty cold from where we’re coming from. Ensembles have been consistent for quite some time . Modified pacific air for the OV , with deeper arctic air staying north during this period anyways. Snow chances? As Les said we shall see.

Normals for CVG during week 3, 14-20th



IMG_1374.jpeg

I agree with that forecast. That’s right about what I was going with. I pointed out the increasing average highs yesterday and thank you for posting the graphic. Cooler yes but nothing too cold.

I am also in agreement. My stance has always been air cold enough for snow. I am not expecting any arctic cold.

SOI continues to tank.... down to -41 now lol That should mean a big storm is coming in the next week to 10 days. Of course, that doesn't mean that we will see a big storm here in Cincinnati but someone will across the Lower 48.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 4:21 am Good morning all! No changes to the current forecast. Dry until Thurs night after midnight. Then we get some rain into Fri morning. Another batch Fri night into Sat morning and again late Sunday into early next week. Mild temps too. Could hit 60 on Thursday, cloud cover dependent.

Can we cash in during the 2/13 - 2/20 period? 0Z OP GFS has a couple of clippers. As usual... we shall see how things shake out as we get closer.

Looked even better on the 06z GFS, Les! Nice thump of wet snow.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 7:57 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 4:21 am Good morning all! No changes to the current forecast. Dry until Thurs night after midnight. Then we get some rain into Fri morning. Another batch Fri night into Sat morning and again late Sunday into early next week. Mild temps too. Could hit 60 on Thursday, cloud cover dependent.

Can we cash in during the 2/13 - 2/20 period? 0Z OP GFS has a couple of clippers. As usual... we shall see how things shake out as we get closer.

Looked even better on the 06z GFS, Les! Nice thump of wet snow.

Yes Sir! I'd be thrilled with a system such as that. Just trying to keep my expectations in check lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 8:07 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 7:57 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 4:21 am Good morning all! No changes to the current forecast. Dry until Thurs night after midnight. Then we get some rain into Fri morning. Another batch Fri night into Sat morning and again late Sunday into early next week. Mild temps too. Could hit 60 on Thursday, cloud cover dependent.

Can we cash in during the 2/13 - 2/20 period? 0Z OP GFS has a couple of clippers. As usual... we shall see how things shake out as we get closer.

Looked even better on the 06z GFS, Les! Nice thump of wet snow.

Yes Sir! I'd be thrilled with a system such as that. Just trying to keep my expectations in check lol

Yeah a system like that is about our only shot this late in the season; usually borderline. But if you're in the snow area it will come down hard and fast...big flakes...cement lol.

Higher-ratio events are hard to come by (but not impossible; it does happen) in later Feb and March.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 10:43 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 8:07 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 7:57 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 4:21 am Good morning all! No changes to the current forecast. Dry until Thurs night after midnight. Then we get some rain into Fri morning. Another batch Fri night into Sat morning and again late Sunday into early next week. Mild temps too. Could hit 60 on Thursday, cloud cover dependent.

Can we cash in during the 2/13 - 2/20 period? 0Z OP GFS has a couple of clippers. As usual... we shall see how things shake out as we get closer.

Looked even better on the 06z GFS, Les! Nice thump of wet snow.

Yes Sir! I'd be thrilled with a system such as that. Just trying to keep my expectations in check lol

Yeah a system like that is about our only shot this late in the season; usually borderline. But if you're in the snow area it will come down hard and fast...big flakes...cement lol.

Higher-ratio events are hard to come by (but not impossible; it does happen) in later Feb and March.

For sure... you expect wet snows early and late in the season actually. A March 2008 type of event is very rare as you know for our area. The law of averages say that we are overdue for another one though. It's just too bad that Mother Nature isn't on some sort of a time clock lol

Peaks of sun finally showing up eastern Hamilton

Latest visible:

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 7:57 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 4:21 am Good morning all! No changes to the current forecast. Dry until Thurs night after midnight. Then we get some rain into Fri morning. Another batch Fri night into Sat morning and again late Sunday into early next week. Mild temps too. Could hit 60 on Thursday, cloud cover dependent.

Can we cash in during the 2/13 - 2/20 period? 0Z OP GFS has a couple of clippers. As usual... we shall see how things shake out as we get closer.

Looked even better on the 06z GFS, Les! Nice thump of wet snow.

12Z GEFS has a handful of members that look interesting around the 13-14th.

Alright gotta ask my phone is saying 1 inch of perception on Monday with snow flakes. What are the current thoughts for super bowl sunday and monday?
Thanks in advance

Pepper wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 12:45 pm Alright gotta ask my phone is saying 1 inch of perception on Monday with snow flakes. What are the current thoughts for super bowl sunday and monday?
Thanks in advance

Hey Pepper.... my current thinking is all rain Thurs night into Fri morning. Then we get another small rain chance Fri night into early Sat morning and a final chance late Sunday into early next week. I expect all rain with these systems. Any snow chances should hold off until 2/13 onwards the way I am seeing things.

Mostly sunny now here in Mason so temps should rise up into the 40s now pretty quickly.

Thanks Les how much rain are you thinking through the weekend?

Pepper wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 1:08 pm Thanks Les how much rain are you thinking through the weekend?

It doesn't look to be very heavy at all. Some models are like at 0.25" or less for the entire Thurs night - early Monday period.

Well that is better than the inch I was seeing on my phone I was thinking I was going to have to get the boat out lol

Pepper wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 1:16 pm Well that is better than the inch I was seeing on my phone I was thinking I was going to have to get the boat out lol

LOL! Yeah... to me these systems are weakening as they head into the area and stalling it, awaiting for the next piece of energy to come in.... etc. etc.

Good Afternoon and a little bite in the air but with the sun not bad for early Feb. Next 2 days should be dry and warming up but of course by later Thursday the winds will pick up some. The forecast is a little messy Friday through Sunday as models are trying to figure out what piece or pieces of energy to throw out there. This is common with a pattern change and hopefully better timing on this in the next day or so.

Concerning the long term and sticking with my 12th Feb- Mar 8th time period where we stand a better shot of some winter weather. We are going to get colder and that is the easy part but can we get the cold and precip to get together in our local area. Just a wait and see at this point but again there has been some action over the eastern Pacific including Japan and when Japan gets busy we tend to see those systems in about 7-10 days so I will be watching this over the next few days as well. Hitting the golf course on Wednesday and if want a good laugh just come out and watch me play. Probably be the only time before at least mid-March and once you get to that period many times its just to wet.

46 at CVG so far today, 45 here. Low dews and some sunshine along with calm winds make for a nice afternoon in early Feb. Should be warmer tomorrow and Thurs before light rain moves in. Right now, the heaviest rains look to fall SE of I-71 but I'm still not gung ho on heavy amounts or anything like that.

The Euro today was kind of boring lol

12Z EPS for Mon / Tues next week is much further North and West with the surface low track then the suppressed OP Euro. 18Z OP GFS is NW too with a band of high elevation snow for the Apps.

CVG got to 46 and both DAY / CMH 50 today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 7:42 pm 12Z EPS for Mon / Tues next week is much further North and West with the surface low track then the suppressed OP Euro. 18Z OP GFS is NW too with a band of high elevation snow for the Apps.

I’m not too interested in the Mon/Tue system as we rarely do well when dynamical cooling is required for snow. Unfortunately there just isn’t any cold air to work with here.

Latest GFS meteogram. Not looking good if you’re wanting cold and snow. I suspect some of the Mets expecting cold (CB, John Gumm, etc) will be changing their tune soon enough. Maybe not CB though…he is the King of the Weenies

00z GFS came in with a cold shot in the long range. It’s been doing that every so often. The thing is, even if we do get a day with highs in the 20s (I’m skeptical but it’s not unheard of in Feb), you’ll see that we quickly rebound. Sustained cold is just not going to happen with our setup and it being late in the season. Cold shots, sure. But that’s about it.

00z Euro shows our issues with the Mon/Tue system as well. Even though we are north of the track it won’t matter if we don’t have cold air to work with. I see no issues for us with that system even if models start showing snowier solutions. Don’t buy into it.

I will also caution models pushing back the start of any cold air…or showing 20s for highs in the long range. There is a tendency in the models to rush then push back and the further it’s pushed back the more we fight climo. In other words, take some of those long range numbers with a grain of salt if they show up.

A couple days with highs in the 30s is certainly on the table, but I don’t buy 20s…especially multiple days of 20s that are showing up on models every so often. Not gonna happen.