Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
!! I am completely joking!I've seen it Tim. Some models have it in the 995 MB range, and others closer to 1000 and some MB so weaker. That is key for sure. You are correct on this point. Which model solution is depicting the Pacific energy correctly? It it too early to know until this thing gets sampled.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 3:03 pm Les have you seen the piece of energy coming into the pacific northwest. Rather strong with blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings. The mountains once the core of the system gets there models have major problems especially the northern rockies. They tend to make the storm weaker than it should be coming out of the mountains. All we need is around .15-.30 total for that period to get 3-6 inches. I feel very good about the call and hope once we get past the storm on Friday the models wake up lol. Sure there is dry air to the north and that is part of the equation as always but I believe the system south of us will throw enough moisture over the cold air to get those totals.
Code: Select all
MON 18Z 15-JAN -7.5 -13.0 1029 73 96 0.02 547 525
TUE 00Z 16-JAN -7.5 -12.9 1027 87 96 0.02 546 525
TUE 06Z 16-JAN -8.2 -12.5 1024 79 94 0.01 543 525
TUE 12Z 16-JAN -9.4 -14.7 1021 90 97 0.06 538 521
TUE 18Z 16-JAN -10.0 -18.2 1018 85 100 0.10 527 514
WED 00Z 17-JAN -13.0 -20.4 1021 88 100 0.06 518 502
WED 06Z 17-JAN -16.3 -19.6 1023 84 69 0.01 521 504
WED 12Z 17-JAN -17.4 -18.2 1025 89 63 0.00 528 510
What is this an image of? A lot of it is cut off. Is this the 18Z GFS or another model? I can't even see the time period either.
I think you have good reason for believing the two waves idea. Even the Euro was showing that over the last several runs. Every model has shown that idea the majority of the time. As always with these kind of storms with multiple waves, whoever benefits from both waves will have the best accumulations. Looks to be Kentucky at this time. Personally, I think the Euro is dead wrong, but I say that with caution. It is still the best scoring model in the world.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 5:48 pm The 18Z NAM is awful like the Euro as in what storm? 18Z GFS is pitiful for the first piece but is not horrible for the second one.
CVG
I like the two wave idea myself. I am currently toying with the notion of a covering if we are lucky on the first piece for Monday, then Tuesday is the best chance for us with a couple of inches certainly possible. I cannot go any higher then that right now. Just too much uncertainty.Code: Select all
MON 18Z 15-JAN -7.5 -13.0 1029 73 96 0.02 547 525 TUE 00Z 16-JAN -7.5 -12.9 1027 87 96 0.02 546 525 TUE 06Z 16-JAN -8.2 -12.5 1024 79 94 0.01 543 525 TUE 12Z 16-JAN -9.4 -14.7 1021 90 97 0.06 538 521 TUE 18Z 16-JAN -10.0 -18.2 1018 85 100 0.10 527 514 WED 00Z 17-JAN -13.0 -20.4 1021 88 100 0.06 518 502 WED 06Z 17-JAN -16.3 -19.6 1023 84 69 0.01 521 504 WED 12Z 17-JAN -17.4 -18.2 1025 89 63 0.00 528 510
Still looks like 3-5 inches so not bad.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 5:48 pm The 18Z NAM is awful like the Euro as in what storm? 18Z GFS is pitiful for the first piece but is not horrible for the second one.
CVG
I like the two wave idea myself. I am currently toying with the notion of a covering if we are lucky on the first piece for Monday, then Tuesday is the best chance for us with a couple of inches certainly possible. I cannot go any higher then that right now. Just too much uncertainty.Code: Select all
MON 18Z 15-JAN -7.5 -13.0 1029 73 96 0.02 547 525 TUE 00Z 16-JAN -7.5 -12.9 1027 87 96 0.02 546 525 TUE 06Z 16-JAN -8.2 -12.5 1024 79 94 0.01 543 525 TUE 12Z 16-JAN -9.4 -14.7 1021 90 97 0.06 538 521 TUE 18Z 16-JAN -10.0 -18.2 1018 85 100 0.10 527 514 WED 00Z 17-JAN -13.0 -20.4 1021 88 100 0.06 518 502 WED 06Z 17-JAN -16.3 -19.6 1023 84 69 0.01 521 504 WED 12Z 17-JAN -17.4 -18.2 1025 89 63 0.00 528 510
Thank you Doug. Of course the snow weenie in me wants the 1 storm idea, but the majority of guidance is certainly showing 2 separate pieces of energy so we have to go that route at this time anyway. The trend has also been more the first piece early Monday to be weak and the main piece to be on Tuesday. We'll see what the next model cycle or two shows but that is most likely the way we need to go with out forecasts on here. QPF to be determined of course. We know it will be all snow. We know it will be cold and every flake will stick. We know we will see high snow ratios. The only unknown as the amount of QPF that we have to work with.dce wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 6:49 pmI think you have good reason for believing the two waves idea. Even the Euro was showing that over the last several runs. Every model has shown that idea the majority of the time. As always with these kind of storms with multiple waves, whoever benefits from both waves will have the best accumulations. Looks to be Kentucky at this time. Personally, I think the Euro is dead wrong, but I say that with caution. It is still the best scoring model in the world.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 5:48 pm The 18Z NAM is awful like the Euro as in what storm? 18Z GFS is pitiful for the first piece but is not horrible for the second one.
CVG
I like the two wave idea myself. I am currently toying with the notion of a covering if we are lucky on the first piece for Monday, then Tuesday is the best chance for us with a couple of inches certainly possible. I cannot go any higher then that right now. Just too much uncertainty.Code: Select all
MON 18Z 15-JAN -7.5 -13.0 1029 73 96 0.02 547 525 TUE 00Z 16-JAN -7.5 -12.9 1027 87 96 0.02 546 525 TUE 06Z 16-JAN -8.2 -12.5 1024 79 94 0.01 543 525 TUE 12Z 16-JAN -9.4 -14.7 1021 90 97 0.06 538 521 TUE 18Z 16-JAN -10.0 -18.2 1018 85 100 0.10 527 514 WED 00Z 17-JAN -13.0 -20.4 1021 88 100 0.06 518 502 WED 06Z 17-JAN -16.3 -19.6 1023 84 69 0.01 521 504 WED 12Z 17-JAN -17.4 -18.2 1025 89 63 0.00 528 510
Tim... if we can some how manage 3-4"+ plus on the ground then I totally agree with -10 being reachable. 1-2" then I'd go with 0 to -5 and bare ground probably 0 to 5 above. Something like that anyway loltpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 7:04 pm Folks I hope to be back on sometime Friday. Will be fun to see if the models are doing better or is it a Saturday change because of the storm on Friday. Either way starting Saturday winter is in full force and lets see how much snow she can deliver because no doubt the cold is on the way with below 0 very likely and if we have snow on the ground -10 is not out of question at all.
Thank you! We don't call it the Happy Hour GFS for nothing?!?!?mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 7:16 pmYes 18z
12z and 6z are showing something similar. Doesn't seem to make sense.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 7:27 pmThank you! We don't call it the Happy Hour GFS for nothing?!?!?mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 7:16 pmYes 18z
10 inches between hour 21 and 24tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 7:27 pmThank you! We don't call it the Happy Hour GFS for nothing?!?!?mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 7:16 pmYes 18z
Tim I am in agreement with a general 3-6” swath of snow over a fairly broad area. Location TBD. That’s actually the range I was toying with as well. Wave 1 may not be much but wave 2 may be solid us. Of course still working out the details and that will happen over the next 36 hours hopefully.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:35 pm Great news this afternoon and its some of the models are just out of whack. I am not the best model watcher but I watch energy out in the pacific and a few pieces from Sunday through all of next week are nice. Do we get one piece at a time or can we get two combining.
Since I seldom ever base my forecasts on models I believe for the period late Sunday night through Tuesday that locally and that is 25 miles either side of CVG we end up in the 3-6 inch range. Will there be a cutoff of accumulation and sure just like with all systems. The further north and west the more likely you see less but not even 0 towards Indy. Better chance of higher accumulations to the south and maybe but again we just may see a nice general area of 3-6 in a broader area.
