Southern OV Snowstorm? Jan 15-16

[mikeyp]

Can we not start a thread a week before the next system. Maybe wait until the day before !! I am completely joking!

[fyrfyter]

Can we not start a thread a week before the next system. Maybe wait until the day before !! I am completely joking!

Seems logical to me!

[tron777]

Les have you seen the piece of energy coming into the pacific northwest. Rather strong with blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings. The mountains once the core of the system gets there models have major problems especially the northern rockies. They tend to make the storm weaker than it should be coming out of the mountains. All we need is around .15-.30 total for that period to get 3-6 inches. I feel very good about the call and hope once we get past the storm on Friday the models wake up lol. Sure there is dry air to the north and that is part of the equation as always but I believe the system south of us will throw enough moisture over the cold air to get those totals.

I've seen it Tim. Some models have it in the 995 MB range, and others closer to 1000 and some MB so weaker. That is key for sure. You are correct on this point. Which model solution is depicting the Pacific energy correctly? It it too early to know until this thing gets sampled.

[tron777]

Can we not start a thread a week before the next system. Maybe wait until the day before !! I am completely joking!

Seems logical to me!

Don't blame me. I have not started a single storm system thread. I know better.

[tron777]

The 18Z NAM is awful like the Euro as in what storm? 18Z GFS is pitiful for the first piece but is not horrible for the second one.

CVG

Code: Select all

MON 18Z 15-JAN  -7.5   -13.0    1029      73      96    0.02     547     525    
TUE 00Z 16-JAN  -7.5   -12.9    1027      87      96    0.02     546     525    
TUE 06Z 16-JAN  -8.2   -12.5    1024      79      94    0.01     543     525    
TUE 12Z 16-JAN  -9.4   -14.7    1021      90      97    0.06     538     521    
TUE 18Z 16-JAN -10.0   -18.2    1018      85     100    0.10     527     514    
WED 00Z 17-JAN -13.0   -20.4    1021      88     100    0.06     518     502    
WED 06Z 17-JAN -16.3   -19.6    1023      84      69    0.01     521     504    
WED 12Z 17-JAN -17.4   -18.2    1025      89      63    0.00     528     510  

I like the two wave idea myself. I am currently toying with the notion of a covering if we are lucky on the first piece for Monday, then Tuesday is the best chance for us with a couple of inches certainly possible. I cannot go any higher then that right now. Just too much uncertainty.

[mainevilleweather]

What's up with this?

[tron777]

What's up with this?

What is this an image of? A lot of it is cut off. Is this the 18Z GFS or another model? I can't even see the time period either.

[dce]

The 18Z NAM is awful like the Euro as in what storm? 18Z GFS is pitiful for the first piece but is not horrible for the second one.

CVG

Code: Select all

MON 18Z 15-JAN  -7.5   -13.0    1029      73      96    0.02     547     525    
TUE 00Z 16-JAN  -7.5   -12.9    1027      87      96    0.02     546     525    
TUE 06Z 16-JAN  -8.2   -12.5    1024      79      94    0.01     543     525    
TUE 12Z 16-JAN  -9.4   -14.7    1021      90      97    0.06     538     521    
TUE 18Z 16-JAN -10.0   -18.2    1018      85     100    0.10     527     514    
WED 00Z 17-JAN -13.0   -20.4    1021      88     100    0.06     518     502    
WED 06Z 17-JAN -16.3   -19.6    1023      84      69    0.01     521     504    
WED 12Z 17-JAN -17.4   -18.2    1025      89      63    0.00     528     510  

I like the two wave idea myself. I am currently toying with the notion of a covering if we are lucky on the first piece for Monday, then Tuesday is the best chance for us with a couple of inches certainly possible. I cannot go any higher then that right now. Just too much uncertainty.

I think you have good reason for believing the two waves idea. Even the Euro was showing that over the last several runs. Every model has shown that idea the majority of the time. As always with these kind of storms with multiple waves, whoever benefits from both waves will have the best accumulations. Looks to be Kentucky at this time. Personally, I think the Euro is dead wrong, but I say that with caution. It is still the best scoring model in the world.

[tpweather]

The 18Z NAM is awful like the Euro as in what storm? 18Z GFS is pitiful for the first piece but is not horrible for the second one.

CVG

Code: Select all

MON 18Z 15-JAN  -7.5   -13.0    1029      73      96    0.02     547     525    
TUE 00Z 16-JAN  -7.5   -12.9    1027      87      96    0.02     546     525    
TUE 06Z 16-JAN  -8.2   -12.5    1024      79      94    0.01     543     525    
TUE 12Z 16-JAN  -9.4   -14.7    1021      90      97    0.06     538     521    
TUE 18Z 16-JAN -10.0   -18.2    1018      85     100    0.10     527     514    
WED 00Z 17-JAN -13.0   -20.4    1021      88     100    0.06     518     502    
WED 06Z 17-JAN -16.3   -19.6    1023      84      69    0.01     521     504    
WED 12Z 17-JAN -17.4   -18.2    1025      89      63    0.00     528     510  

I like the two wave idea myself. I am currently toying with the notion of a covering if we are lucky on the first piece for Monday, then Tuesday is the best chance for us with a couple of inches certainly possible. I cannot go any higher then that right now. Just too much uncertainty.

Still looks like 3-5 inches so not bad.

[tpweather]

Folks I hope to be back on sometime Friday. Will be fun to see if the models are doing better or is it a Saturday change because of the storm on Friday. Either way starting Saturday winter is in full force and lets see how much snow she can deliver because no doubt the cold is on the way with below 0 very likely and if we have snow on the ground -10 is not out of question at all.

[mainevilleweather]

What's up with this?

What is this an image of? A lot of it is cut off. Is this the 18Z GFS or another model? I can't even see the time period either.

Yes 18z

[mainevilleweather]

What's up with this?

What is this an image of? A lot of it is cut off. Is this the 18Z GFS or another model? I can't even see the time period either.

Yes 18z

[tron777]

The 18Z NAM is awful like the Euro as in what storm? 18Z GFS is pitiful for the first piece but is not horrible for the second one.

CVG

Code: Select all

MON 18Z 15-JAN  -7.5   -13.0    1029      73      96    0.02     547     525    
TUE 00Z 16-JAN  -7.5   -12.9    1027      87      96    0.02     546     525    
TUE 06Z 16-JAN  -8.2   -12.5    1024      79      94    0.01     543     525    
TUE 12Z 16-JAN  -9.4   -14.7    1021      90      97    0.06     538     521    
TUE 18Z 16-JAN -10.0   -18.2    1018      85     100    0.10     527     514    
WED 00Z 17-JAN -13.0   -20.4    1021      88     100    0.06     518     502    
WED 06Z 17-JAN -16.3   -19.6    1023      84      69    0.01     521     504    
WED 12Z 17-JAN -17.4   -18.2    1025      89      63    0.00     528     510  

I like the two wave idea myself. I am currently toying with the notion of a covering if we are lucky on the first piece for Monday, then Tuesday is the best chance for us with a couple of inches certainly possible. I cannot go any higher then that right now. Just too much uncertainty.

I think you have good reason for believing the two waves idea. Even the Euro was showing that over the last several runs. Every model has shown that idea the majority of the time. As always with these kind of storms with multiple waves, whoever benefits from both waves will have the best accumulations. Looks to be Kentucky at this time. Personally, I think the Euro is dead wrong, but I say that with caution. It is still the best scoring model in the world.

Thank you Doug. Of course the snow weenie in me wants the 1 storm idea, but the majority of guidance is certainly showing 2 separate pieces of energy so we have to go that route at this time anyway. The trend has also been more the first piece early Monday to be weak and the main piece to be on Tuesday. We'll see what the next model cycle or two shows but that is most likely the way we need to go with out forecasts on here. QPF to be determined of course. We know it will be all snow. We know it will be cold and every flake will stick. We know we will see high snow ratios. The only unknown as the amount of QPF that we have to work with.

[tron777]

Folks I hope to be back on sometime Friday. Will be fun to see if the models are doing better or is it a Saturday change because of the storm on Friday. Either way starting Saturday winter is in full force and lets see how much snow she can deliver because no doubt the cold is on the way with below 0 very likely and if we have snow on the ground -10 is not out of question at all.

Tim... if we can some how manage 3-4"+ plus on the ground then I totally agree with -10 being reachable. 1-2" then I'd go with 0 to -5 and bare ground probably 0 to 5 above. Something like that anyway lol

[tron777]

What's up with this?

What is this an image of? A lot of it is cut off. Is this the 18Z GFS or another model? I can't even see the time period either.

Yes 18z

Thank you! We don't call it the Happy Hour GFS for nothing?!?!?

[mainevilleweather]

What's up with this?

What is this an image of? A lot of it is cut off. Is this the 18Z GFS or another model? I can't even see the time period either.

Yes 18z

Thank you! We don't call it the Happy Hour GFS for nothing?!?!?

12z and 6z are showing something similar. Doesn't seem to make sense.

[mainevilleweather]

What's up with this?

What is this an image of? A lot of it is cut off. Is this the 18Z GFS or another model? I can't even see the time period either.

Yes 18z

Thank you! We don't call it the Happy Hour GFS for nothing?!?!?

10 inches between hour 21 and 24

[Trevor]

Great news this afternoon and its some of the models are just out of whack. I am not the best model watcher but I watch energy out in the pacific and a few pieces from Sunday through all of next week are nice. Do we get one piece at a time or can we get two combining.

Since I seldom ever base my forecasts on models I believe for the period late Sunday night through Tuesday that locally and that is 25 miles either side of CVG we end up in the 3-6 inch range. Will there be a cutoff of accumulation and sure just like with all systems. The further north and west the more likely you see less but not even 0 towards Indy. Better chance of higher accumulations to the south and maybe but again we just may see a nice general area of 3-6 in a broader area.

Tim I am in agreement with a general 3-6” swath of snow over a fairly broad area. Location TBD. That’s actually the range I was toying with as well. Wave 1 may not be much but wave 2 may be solid us. Of course still working out the details and that will happen over the next 36 hours hopefully.

[Trevor]

It will be interesting to see how the models handle wave two. Unless something changes wave one will be limited with an inch or less (or nothing). Wave 2 has the better chance to put down a couple to a few inches in the tri-state. The majority of the heaviest amounts will be to our south. Remember I called this a Kentucky Special days ago and I see no reason to change that attm. Doesn’t mean we won’t get a light to maybe moderate snowfall, but we should avoid anything too crazy when it comes to amounts.

[Trevor]

Add the GFS to the camp that caved to the Euro. Some light snow showers late Tue but that’s about it!

[Trevor]

If you’re wanting a snowfall you better root for Team Canada as that’s about all that remains.

The shift south in the other deterministic models is no surprise giving the ensembles have been south.

[Trevor]

Waiting on the Euro but I think we all know what that will show! I’ve been hammering home the uncertainty but also the trend south on my page. It’s not dead in the water just yet but I do think it’s safe that our chances of 4”+ are rapidly decreasing.

[MVWxObserver]

Areas like in and near the Nashville, TN region where my nephew and my niece-in-law reside may end up getting around a foot!

[Trevor]

Euro tries to phase Mon night but just doesn’t do it.

[tron777]

Too much energy keeps getting held back and the flow is too flat. Unless those issues get resolved there won't be much snow for us at all. The cold will be the bigger story unfortunately. Down the road... we'll try again around the Thurs / Fri time frame (Jan 18-19th) as another wave should fire up along the next arctic frontal attack.