January 2024 Weather Discussion

[Trevor]

We will likely see corrections from the far east/south tracks (like what the 12z Canadian did). As I said in my FB post, typically the answer is somewhere in the middle.

[tron777]

We will likely see corrections from the far east/south tracks (like what the 12z Canadian did). As I said in my FB post, typically the answer is somewhere in the middle.

I agree. The CMC went north and the GFS south so that logic certainly makes sense.

[tpweather]

No doubt we all thought the system for the weekend would trend towards the CMC and EURO. I agree and we just need to see how much moisture will be able to make it this far north. Temps as well may be marginal when precip is falling but won't have a handle on that until later this week. The bigger system a few days later looks correct on the CMC and again a big rain maker for us but the most important part this should be the pattern changer that gets some really cold air in here for the second half of January. The GFS is horrible because every run is a different outcome and some of the output makes no sense at all.

[mainevilleweather]

Yeah that 12z Euro run from yesterday was too good to be true haha.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS is a bit north of the operational so the OP GFS likely went to far south on its latest run.

[tron777]

12Z UKIE gives us about 2-3" of snow next weekend with the 6"+ stuff in the mountains of Eastern KY.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is going to come in stronger and more north vs its 0Z run so that is good to see.

EDIT: Nice hit for our SE Crew.

[tron777]

Looks like it drives the primary into Eastern KY / WV then slowly transfers the energy to an EC Low. 3-4" easy even at CVG. I'd take that in a heart beat! I see Matt is here so here's what the Euro has for FGX:

Code: Select all

SAT 18Z 06-JAN  -0.2    -0.4    1005      92      99    0.32     545     541    
SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.3    -3.6    1006      92      85    0.64     541     536

[mainevilleweather]

Better than the last run!

[tron777]

Better than the last run!

I'd be thrilled with it myself. Enough to break the shovels out.

[BookNerdCarp]

Looks like it drives the primary into Eastern KY / WV then slowly transfers the energy to an EC Low. 3-4" easy even at CVG. I'd take that in a heart beat! I see Matt is here so here's what the Euro has for FGX:

Code: Select all

SAT 18Z 06-JAN  -0.2    -0.4    1005      92      99    0.32     545     541    
SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.3    -3.6    1006      92      85    0.64     541     536

After all these years....with great anticipation....I hold my breath. LOL

[tron777]

The upcoming pattern folks is absolutely loaded with storm systems to track. They won't all be snow makers of course but just to finally have some cold air to work with to go along with an active STJ... a very interesting January is certainly on the table!

[tron777]

Looks like it drives the primary into Eastern KY / WV then slowly transfers the energy to an EC Low. 3-4" easy even at CVG. I'd take that in a heart beat! I see Matt is here so here's what the Euro has for FGX:

Code: Select all

SAT 18Z 06-JAN  -0.2    -0.4    1005      92      99    0.32     545     541    
SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.3    -3.6    1006      92      85    0.64     541     536

After all these years....with great anticipation....I hold my breath. LOL

Don't turn blue on us now!

[tron777]

12Z Euro for other locations.

Code: Select all

CVG

SAT 12Z 06-JAN   0.2    -2.7    1014      76      90    0.01     549     538    
SAT 18Z 06-JAN   0.8    -3.7    1008      80     100    0.07     544     538    
SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.1    -4.2    1007      93      98    0.27     540     535    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN  -3.2    -5.0    1008      95      71    0.01     540     534    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN   0.1    -5.1    1010      97     100    0.02     537     529    
SUN 18Z 07-JAN   2.6    -3.3    1011      93      98    0.04     539     530    
MON 00Z 08-JAN   3.0    -4.4    1016      94      81    0.01     544     531 

HAO

SAT 12Z 06-JAN   0.3    -3.0    1014      73      93    0.01     549     537    
SAT 18Z 06-JAN   1.2    -4.1    1008      73      98    0.03     544     538    
SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.1    -4.3    1007      91      97    0.27     540     534    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN  -4.6    -5.2    1008      93      73    0.01     540     534    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN  -0.8    -5.4    1010      93     100    0.01     537     529    
SUN 18Z 07-JAN   3.0    -3.6    1011      87      98    0.05     538     529    
MON 00Z 08-JAN   2.8    -4.1    1016      94      87    0.03     544     531    

MGY

SAT 06Z 06-JAN  -0.4    -2.4    1019      72      45    0.00     554     539    
SAT 12Z 06-JAN   0.1    -3.1    1015      70      92    0.01     549     537    
SAT 18Z 06-JAN   1.0    -3.9    1008      68      97    0.02     544     538    
SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.8    -4.2    1007      90      98    0.30     540     534    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN  -4.8    -5.2    1008      91      73    0.02     540     533    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN  -1.5    -5.6    1010      91     100    0.00     537     529    
SUN 18Z 07-JAN   2.9    -3.9    1011      83      97    0.03     538     529    
MON 00Z 08-JAN   2.1    -4.0    1016      96      91    0.01     543     530    

DAY

SAT 18Z 06-JAN   1.7    -3.7    1009      57      94    0.01     544     537    
SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.9    -4.4    1007      87      99    0.25     540     534    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN  -3.7    -5.3    1008      91      75    0.03     539     533    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN  -1.8    -5.7    1010      87      99    0.00     536     529    
SUN 18Z 07-JAN   2.4    -4.3    1010      82      95    0.04     537     529    
MON 00Z 08-JAN   1.7    -4.2    1016      94      93    0.01     542     530   

CMH - Wow!  Nice hit for JP!

SAT 18Z 06-JAN   1.8    -2.9    1009      52      95    0.01     546     539    
SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.7    -4.6    1005      94     100    0.56     540     535    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN  -1.1    -5.7    1006      95      77    0.11     539     534    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN  -1.5    -5.7    1009      93      88    0.00     537     529    
SUN 18Z 07-JAN   1.1    -5.7    1011      86      93    0.03     536     528    
MON 00Z 08-JAN   0.8    -4.5    1015      95      85    0.01     542     529    

[tpweather]

12Z Euro for other locations.

Code: Select all

CVG

SAT 12Z 06-JAN   0.2    -2.7    1014      76      90    0.01     549     538    
SAT 18Z 06-JAN   0.8    -3.7    1008      80     100    0.07     544     538    
SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.1    -4.2    1007      93      98    0.27     540     535    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN  -3.2    -5.0    1008      95      71    0.01     540     534    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN   0.1    -5.1    1010      97     100    0.02     537     529    
SUN 18Z 07-JAN   2.6    -3.3    1011      93      98    0.04     539     530    
MON 00Z 08-JAN   3.0    -4.4    1016      94      81    0.01     544     531 

HAO

SAT 12Z 06-JAN   0.3    -3.0    1014      73      93    0.01     549     537    
SAT 18Z 06-JAN   1.2    -4.1    1008      73      98    0.03     544     538    
SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.1    -4.3    1007      91      97    0.27     540     534    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN  -4.6    -5.2    1008      93      73    0.01     540     534    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN  -0.8    -5.4    1010      93     100    0.01     537     529    
SUN 18Z 07-JAN   3.0    -3.6    1011      87      98    0.05     538     529    
MON 00Z 08-JAN   2.8    -4.1    1016      94      87    0.03     544     531    

MGY

SAT 06Z 06-JAN  -0.4    -2.4    1019      72      45    0.00     554     539    
SAT 12Z 06-JAN   0.1    -3.1    1015      70      92    0.01     549     537    
SAT 18Z 06-JAN   1.0    -3.9    1008      68      97    0.02     544     538    
SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.8    -4.2    1007      90      98    0.30     540     534    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN  -4.8    -5.2    1008      91      73    0.02     540     533    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN  -1.5    -5.6    1010      91     100    0.00     537     529    
SUN 18Z 07-JAN   2.9    -3.9    1011      83      97    0.03     538     529    
MON 00Z 08-JAN   2.1    -4.0    1016      96      91    0.01     543     530    

DAY

SAT 18Z 06-JAN   1.7    -3.7    1009      57      94    0.01     544     537    
SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.9    -4.4    1007      87      99    0.25     540     534    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN  -3.7    -5.3    1008      91      75    0.03     539     533    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN  -1.8    -5.7    1010      87      99    0.00     536     529    
SUN 18Z 07-JAN   2.4    -4.3    1010      82      95    0.04     537     529    
MON 00Z 08-JAN   1.7    -4.2    1016      94      93    0.01     542     530   

CMH - Wow!  Nice hit for JP!

SAT 18Z 06-JAN   1.8    -2.9    1009      52      95    0.01     546     539    
SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.7    -4.6    1005      94     100    0.56     540     535    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN  -1.1    -5.7    1006      95      77    0.11     539     534    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN  -1.5    -5.7    1009      93      88    0.00     537     529    
SUN 18Z 07-JAN   1.1    -5.7    1011      86      93    0.03     536     528    
MON 00Z 08-JAN   0.8    -4.5    1015      95      85    0.01     542     529    

I will take a 2-4 inch snowfall and be very happy

[tpweather]

Looking at the 2nd system and the GFS and CMC are both showing a western lake cutter which usually means rain to some back end snow. The EURO is showing an eastern lake cutter and this would probably be a rain to snow but chances for higher accumulations

[tron777]

Looking at the 2nd system and the GFS and CMC are both showing a western lake cutter which usually means rain to some back end snow. The EURO is showing an eastern lake cutter and this would probably be a rain to snow but chances for higher accumulations

The weekend system is going to effect the track of the next one. We've got to get it nailed down first before we see what the big cutter does. Anything goes at this point. One thing is for certain at this time, the cutter looks to be a very strong storm system!

[tron777]

Looks like we are getting a storm system every 3 days or so if you go out further in time! It won't be boring on our forum, I can promise you that. It's going to be a long week of model watching! Just glad it is only a 4 day work week this week. Wow what an active pattern that we have starting this weekend.

[tpweather]

Looks like we are getting a storm system every 3 days or so if you go out further in time! It won't be boring on our forum, I can promise you that. It's going to be a long week of model watching! Just glad it is only a 4 day work week this week. Wow what an active pattern that we have starting this weekend.

Agree Les and very typical of an El Nino and hard to get the southeast ridge to get really strong with a system every 3 days or so. Just need to unlock the door and let the cold work this way and we are in business.

[tron777]

Looks like we are getting a storm system every 3 days or so if you go out further in time! It won't be boring on our forum, I can promise you that. It's going to be a long week of model watching! Just glad it is only a 4 day work week this week. Wow what an active pattern that we have starting this weekend.

Agree Les and very typical of an El Nino and hard to get the southeast ridge to get really strong with a system every 3 days or so. Just need to unlock the door and let the cold work this way and we are in business.

Exactly Tim! I truly hope Trev's bomb cyclone comes to fruition as we've talked about before. The stronger that storm is, the better chance we have at driving the cold air south. Now it is only going to come so far south due to the -PNA so we have to keep that in mind. We would be torching if it weren't for the -EPO / -NAO / -AO combo to go along with the -PNA. A -PNA is only good to us when you get the blocking over the top. Otherwise you torch with the mean trough over the West and a SE Ridge for us. You won't get much of a SE ridge as you said thanks to the -EPO and -NAO combination working together. The upcoming pattern is absolutely loaded with trackable storms as the STJ tracks underneath the blocking. Fun times ahead...

[tron777]

EPS in the 10-15 day range... Hell of an -NAO with a nice -EPO. The pattern from mid month on should be very interesting. Heck of a -PNA too so thank goodness the blocking is there.

EPS1.png

EPS2.png

[tron777]

So in summation, we have this weekend system to track, Trev's bomb cyclone system, then we get the above modeled pattern. I like it I like it!

[tron777]

12Z EPS is looking good for this weekend's system. The mean shows at least 0.30" of liquid so pretty much backs up what the OP Euro is selling.

[BookNerdCarp]

Looks like it drives the primary into Eastern KY / WV then slowly transfers the energy to an EC Low. 3-4" easy even at CVG. I'd take that in a heart beat! I see Matt is here so here's what the Euro has for FGX:

Code: Select all

SAT 18Z 06-JAN  -0.2    -0.4    1005      92      99    0.32     545     541    
SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.3    -3.6    1006      92      85    0.64     541     536

After all these years....with great anticipation....I hold my breath. LOL

Don't turn blue on us now!

Not a chance.,...you know I am a SNOW weenie

[tron777]

18Z GFS came back north with the primary into WVA. Heaviest snows SE of our local area as you would expect.

Code: Select all

CVG

SUN 00Z 07-JAN   0.6    -3.0    1010      98      95    0.15     546     538    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN  -0.1    -3.1    1010      97      93    0.06     544     536    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN  -1.7    -4.7    1013      94      95    0.01     543     532    

HAO

SUN 00Z 07-JAN   0.2    -3.1    1011      98      95    0.14     546     537    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN  -0.7    -3.5    1010      97      97    0.08     544     535    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN  -2.2    -5.2    1013      96      92    0.01     542     532    
SUN 18Z 07-JAN   1.6    -5.3    1016      82      59    0.01     544     532   

MGY

SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.1    -3.1    1011      97      95    0.11     546     537    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN  -1.3    -3.5    1010      97      97    0.13     543     535    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN  -2.8    -5.3    1013      98      90    0.04     542     532    
SUN 18Z 07-JAN   0.7    -5.7    1016      86      68    0.01     543     531 

DAY

SUN 00Z 07-JAN  -0.3    -3.4    1012      96      95    0.05     546     537    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN  -1.6    -3.9    1011      97      97    0.14     543     534    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN  -2.5    -5.5    1013      98      92    0.06     541     531    
SUN 18Z 07-JAN   0.3    -6.0    1016      88      74    0.01     543     530    

CMH

SUN 00Z 07-JAN   0.3    -3.0    1012      86      96    0.02     547     538    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN  -0.5    -2.5    1009      97      97    0.18     543     536    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN  -1.5    -6.1    1011      98      99    0.17     542     533    
SUN 18Z 07-JAN   0.5    -6.4    1014      92      80    0.02     542     531    

FGX

SUN 00Z 07-JAN   0.1    -1.8    1008      99      97    0.36     547     540    
SUN 06Z 07-JAN   0.1    -2.6    1008      99      88    0.37     545     538    
SUN 12Z 07-JAN  -1.3    -4.4    1012      98      81    0.02     544     534