Absolute Vorticity

Great Post Les and it shows with the posts that folks on here have somewhat of a clue about the weather

Very heavy snow in the northern part of the United Kingdom. Europe been getting hit hard and has moved to western Europe as well. Europe and the eastern part of the USA tend to have similar weather conditions over many winters though Europe tends to get the worse of the weather first during a winter season. This is also being helped with the El Nino as the jet goes across the Atlantic and really boost up moisture in Europe during the winter

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2023 12:21 pm Great Post Les and it shows with the posts that folks on here have somewhat of a clue about the weather

Thanks Tim and I completely agree with your post here. Sometimes we get it right, sometimes we don't but our reasoning always makes sense.

12Z Euro is slower, stronger and still a SE track with the low. Still a rain to snow scenario for next weekend on this run.

12Z EPS is much further West with the track of the low, over us maybe a bit West of us so the Ensemble does not support the operational run today.

18Z GFS is back to the more phased system again tracking a deepening low right over us with rain to a bit of snow at the end.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2023 5:31 pm 18Z GFS is back to the more phased system again tracking a deepening low right over us with rain to a bit of snow at the end.

For anyone in the Midwest to get accumulating snow except near the lakes , that’s the way it has to go down

CVG reached 49, DAY 48 and CMH 51 today.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2023 5:36 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2023 5:31 pm 18Z GFS is back to the more phased system again tracking a deepening low right over us with rain to a bit of snow at the end.

For anyone in the Midwest to get accumulating snow except near the lakes , that’s the way it has to go down

Or have a deepening low running up the Apps.

Speaking of deepening lows , Another beauty headed to the NW coast

More musings. Still have a ways to go in snow coverage to our nw

That is a nice storm heading for British Columbia and the southeast Alaska. Yes the snow cover in the northern and central plains along with the upper mid-west is light at best. My son in Wausau got about 1.5 overnight and today but he mentioned has been very mild overall and snow melts a few days later. Concerning the storm around the 10th or so and again never easy getting a snow in a milder pattern but if the low can deepen quickly when its near us or just to the east storms can provide enough cold air this time of year. Still imo a long shot but something to at least look at over the next week which will end up be milder than normal. Btw coldest in Siberia is -65 so temps have dropped big time in 3 days.

My Aunt in Northern Lower Michigan picked up a couple of inches today. That is a beautiful sat. pic Bgoney posted. You can see the cold air associated with that low by the speckled nature of the clouds.

You can clearly see the STJ running from the Pacific into Mexico and Texas, Gulf, SE CONUS.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2023 7:12 pm You can clearly see the STJ running from the Pacific into Mexico and Texas, Gulf, SE CONUS.


STJ.jpg

Exactly Les and you can see heading for the North Atlantic and head towards Europe. The updated snow map will include much of Northern United Kingdom as many got over a foot of snow in the past 24 hours or so.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2023 7:14 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2023 7:12 pm You can clearly see the STJ running from the Pacific into Mexico and Texas, Gulf, SE CONUS.


STJ.jpg

Exactly Les and you can see heading for the North Atlantic and head towards Europe. The updated snow map will include much of Northern United Kingdom as many got over a foot of snow in the past 24 hours or so.

Yeah. I saw some pics out of Germany where they got a foot of snow over there a couple of days ago.

00z GFS coming in with heavy rains ending as a bit of snow for Cincy. Heaviest band of snow well to the NW.

High-res models look interesting for tomorrow morning. Could see enough flakes mix in to cause a grassy dusting in spots early on. Raw day tomorrow either way.

very nice to see your tree up Les. I may start doing some decorating today. its been very damp and rainy around here lately, but temps have been seasonal so thats always good. im not really anticipating any real cold or snow till later in the month and if it holds off till say mid January it wont break my heart either.

The 00z Euro essentially shows what I have been talking about for days. A strong cutter tracking to our NW with rain/thunder and then backlash snow showers behind the front.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 2:56 am very nice to see your tree up Les. I may start doing some decorating today. its been very damp and rainy around here lately, but temps have been seasonal so thats always good. im not really anticipating any real cold or snow till later in the month and if it holds off till say mid January it wont break my heart either.

Thanks Charles!!! I am still eyeing the period near or after the 20th for some possible fun and games.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 4:11 am The 00z Euro essentially shows what I have been talking about for days. A strong cutter tracking to our NW with rain/thunder and then backlash snow showers behind the front.

I agree my friend. This has been both of our ideas for days now. Even the GEFS continues to disagree with the OP and is more like the Euro.

A small chance for rain this afternoon then rain tomorrow with maybe a few flakes early as Trev has mentioned. A cold day on Wed then Thurs and Fri we warm back up into the 50s. Those are the pick days of the week. Then we have our weekend system to deal with.

Good Morning and a normal first full week of December though temps will rise late in the week. Storm system for the weekend is coming around the way all on this forum saw and that is some hopefully decent rains that may end as a bit of snow but nothing to write home about. We are in a pattern that does not give us many chances for snow. What I want to see is how strong this system is before heading into Canada. For several months storms have not got as strong or wet as models showed several days in advance. This storm does have that dip in the jet and maybe enough to help as we do get into the upper 50's and maybe low 60's ahead of the system. Again most on here saw very little until at least the last 10 days of the month and that still seems correct.

Since August CVG is a whopping 5.22” below normal precipitation