Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 8:26 am Good morning Trev! Seeing a touch of sun here IMBY. Winds are SE so the warm front should be moving into and thru the area soon as you mentioned. Temps will sky rocket once the southerly flow / full on sunshine kicks in. Winds will also increase as the boundary layer mixes. Already, it is a bit breezy outside. I expect winds gusting to 30-35 mph easily this afternoon.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 8:27 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 8:26 am Good morning Trev! Seeing a touch of sun here IMBY. Winds are SE so the warm front should be moving into and thru the area soon as you mentioned. Temps will sky rocket once the southerly flow / full on sunshine kicks in. Winds will also increase as the boundary layer mixes. Already, it is a bit breezy outside. I expect winds gusting to 30-35 mph easily this afternoon.

NAM run has come in windier for this evening/tonight with the frontal passage.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 9:28 am A "textbook" baroclinic leaf to our north at the moment.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 9:30 am I am going to stick with 77 as a high. Folks south of the front yesterday were mainly upper 70's and an 80 here and there. Early November and if we had a huge storm to the northwest and temps starting out in the low-mid-60's I would go higher but even I am worried 77 may be to high. No doubt some sun the last hour or so but still its mainly partly to mostly cloudy. That should change over the next couple of hours and should see a nice rise to the low 70's by 1pm or so. The problem of course is we run out of daylight and this time of year never easy to get those few extra degree between 3pm and dark.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 9:30 am I am going to stick with 77 as a high. Folks south of the front yesterday were mainly upper 70's and an 80 here and there. Early November and if we had a huge storm to the northwest and temps starting out in the low-mid-60's I would go higher but even I am worried 77 may be to high. No doubt some sun the last hour or so but still its mainly partly to mostly cloudy. That should change over the next couple of hours and should see a nice rise to the low 70's by 1pm or so. The problem of course is we run out of daylight and this time of year never easy to get those few extra degree between 3pm and dark.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 9:40 am Mid morning update from the boys... basically rehashing everything we have been saying.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early morning showers within the CWA have tapered off, leaving
more comprehensive shower activity to our north. Surface obs
indicate that the warm front associated with the low pressure
system to our west (currently around the NE/MO border) is
currently lifting into our southern CWA. Winds will continue to
veer more southerly and warm air advection begins in earnest.

In addition to this, clouds are forecast to thin throughout the
afternoon and most areas should see sunshine. With the WAA and
insolation, anticipate afternoon high temperatures to get close
to(possibly even break) record criteria several sites. Current
records are as follows: CVG 79F in 2020, CMH 78F in 2020, DAY
80F in 2020.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 10:14 am Yeah, we (Fairfield) had a brief shower this morning with 50 degrees around 7:30 am. It added some moisture to the air so it may feel a little more humid today compared to yesterday.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 11:37 am Dew points approaching 60 as close as Louisville. We should see ours in the low 60s by this evening ahead of the front.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 3:17 pm 79 at CVG now so the record is tied. Let’s see if we can hit that 80! Either way a forecast success today for sure!