Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 9:53 am Wow! It really puts it all into perspective when you can see the issue in action on the above map. Same thing in Boone co. Look at that very light green color in Central Boone Co. That is my area lol North and South of me has patches of blue. I'm not in as bad shape as Bgoney of course just pointing out the localized nature of summertime t-storms as the above map perfectly shows what has been happening.

Wherever that observation is in Williamsburg, some 3-4 miles to my south, the difference in qpf there and mby since mid May is easily 6-8”+

HAPPY 47TH BIRTHDAY CHARLES!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 10:19 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 9:53 am Wow! It really puts it all into perspective when you can see the issue in action on the above map. Same thing in Boone co. Look at that very light green color in Central Boone Co. That is my area lol North and South of me has patches of blue. I'm not in as bad shape as Bgoney of course just pointing out the localized nature of summertime t-storms as the above map perfectly shows what has been happening.

Wherever that observation is in Williamsburg, some 3-4 miles to my south, the difference in qpf there and mby since mid May is easily 6-8”+

Wow! It really is incredible when you think about it. I just looked at the 12Z NAM and GFS and I honestly do not like what I see from a soaking rainfall perspective. It looks like a slug of rain goes north and south of our area so there will be a gap in between that receives very little. This is for Wed night. NAM and GFS both show the gap area to be the Tri-state, wouldn't you know it. Hoping this is wrong but it wouldn't surprise me all the same.

12Z Euro is further south and basically keeps the rain S of I-70. A better run for the Tri-state and points south and not good for northern posters. For CVG, the model has an inch plus on the Euro. GFS was less then a half inch with the NAM even worse less then 0.20" The third option is my fear with this next system.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:14 pm 12Z Euro is further south and basically keeps the rain S of I-70. A better run for the Tri-state and points south and not good for northern posters. For CVG, the model has an inch plus on the Euro. GFS was less then a half inch with the NAM even worse less then 0.20" The third option is my fear with this next system.

I would be willing to sacrifice this time around to be able to have Ma Nature give some love to Bgoney, MattC, yourself, and others down that way Bro!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:14 pm 12Z Euro is further south and basically keeps the rain S of I-70. A better run for the Tri-state and points south and not good for northern posters. For CVG, the model has an inch plus on the Euro. GFS was less then a half inch with the NAM even worse less then 0.20" The third option is my fear with this next system.

I would be willing to sacrifice this time around to be able to have Ma Nature give some love to Bgoney, MattC, yourself, and others down that way Bro!

You've always been a team player Eric! Thank you Bro!

82 here and at CVG today. Mowed the lawn and edged along the driveway. Sure hope we get a little luck tomorrow evening / overnight.

NAM and HRRR show periods of very heavy rain later this evening and overnight. 1-3” for most in the tri-state per those models.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 7:04 am NAM and HRRR show periods of very heavy rain later this evening and overnight. 1-3” for most in the tri-state per those models.

Just about to post Trevor. Seems like many times this summer once we got within 12-18 hours of an event totals would go down but this time around they went up and that is a good sign for a decent rain and hopefully everyone cashes in. I would take an inch which would get my lawn in decent shape for mid-August and any amounts over that is just a bonus.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 7:04 am NAM and HRRR show periods of very heavy rain later this evening and overnight. 1-3” for most in the tri-state per those models.

Hey Trev! About time you came out of hiding and posted. I'll believe it when I see it with regards to those amounts. Hope it's right! 3/4's of AV Posters could use it! For timing, I like anytime after 7pm for us to be fair game in the Cincy area. 7pm until midnight looks like our best window.

I think Thurs is dry after any lingering action pulls out very early. Friday is dry. Our next chance looks to come Fri night into early Saturday morning then on Sat we warm into the upper 80s and it's also very humid. Sunday looks warm and dry in the U80s. Then I think Sun night into Monday of next week, that would be our next system to deal with. It's nice to see an active pattern in August which is usually not the case around here. Good luck to all while we have the active pattern in place.

Concerning temps today and the NWS going with 83. I believe with the amount of sun early today temps will go up quickly to around 80 or so around noon. Then will the higher clouds and normal build up of clouds hold the temperature to the low 80's. I may go a few degrees higher today especially the further east you live and would not be surprised to see CVG hitting 85. Really not a big deal but with the southwest wind and strong sun still this time of year I thought a few degrees higher may work out.

Again nothing important to the forecast and the short term models will be interesting today and do we see the split of energy that has happened quite often this summer. My guess is the average for the tri-state will be around an inch or so but if someone gets hit with 2-3 inches then someone will get the shaft and probably be under 1/2 inch. Each run of say the HRRR may increase rainfall one hour and then decrease the next so that model is really important later this afternoon closer to the rain event.

Tim, I agree with you. Mid 80s is certainly achievable today. As you mentioned, it'll depend on how quick the clouds come in. The dynamics look good with this system so hopefully that is enough to overcome the possible lack of strong CAPE. We should have some instability mind you as dews rise into the upper 60s as time goes on today.

The monsoon season in the southwest is off to a slow start this season. Models are trying to set that up later next week. If this happens that usually leads to a drier and warmer than normal outlook for us. Maybe models are just heading back to the median on this but I can see where we see a few weeks of less rain and temps slightly above normal for the end of August. So maybe we get a few days in the 90's but first we have about another week or so of rain chances and the more rain we get and folks just to the west of us will also be a factor concerning temps later this month. If we have a wetter than normal soil then this would slow down the increase in temps by a few days before a drier soil takes place.

11Z HRRR has the split that I mentioned yesterday. Looks like our top three tier of NKY counties get some rain and points further north. Counties S of the Metro get screwed. Again , hope that is wrong. I'm not sure if we'll see these 1-3" totals or not. Sure some folks will as long as that energy doesn't split. If it does, we'll see two areas of rain. One northward and the other southward. The gap in the middle may or may not be us. That is still a concern for me. Models are models and they won't get it exactly right, they rarely do so we'll have to watch the radar presentation this afternoon to get a better handle on it.

The 6Z NAM looks a lot like the 12z Euro from yesterday where the system tracks further south and our I-70 posters may not see much of anything and we'd get all the action down Cincy way and points south. I checked the 6Z Euro and it's in complete agreement with the NAM. A lot of model uncertainty still IMO and this isn't a slam dunk by any means. Do we see a further South track? Does the energy split happen? Again, we'll have to wait and see.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 8:30 am The monsoon season in the southwest is off to a slow start this season. Models are trying to set that up later next week. If this happens that usually leads to a drier and warmer than normal outlook for us. Maybe models are just heading back to the median on this but I can see where we see a few weeks of less rain and temps slightly above normal for the end of August. So maybe we get a few days in the 90's but first we have about another week or so of rain chances and the more rain we get and folks just to the west of us will also be a factor concerning temps later this month. If we have a wetter than normal soil then this would slow down the increase in temps by a few days before a drier soil takes place.

From my son in Phoenix: No measurable rain at the airport for 127 days. It's the second latest that any monsoon rain has started. If we don't get anything by August 14, it will be the latest start to the monsoon.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 8:41 am 11Z HRRR has the split that I mentioned yesterday. Looks like our top three tier of NKY counties get some rain and points further north. Counties S of the Metro get screwed. Again , hope that is wrong. I'm not sure if we'll see these 1-3" totals or not. Sure some folks will as long as that energy doesn't split. If it does, we'll see two areas of rain. One northward and the other southward. The gap in the middle may or may not be us. That is still a concern for me. Models are models and they won't get it exactly right, they rarely do so we'll have to watch the radar presentation this afternoon to get a better handle on it.

The 6Z NAM looks a lot like the 12z Euro from yesterday where the system tracks further south and our I-70 posters may not see much of anything and we'd get all the action down Cincy way and points south. I checked the 6Z Euro and it's in complete agreement with the NAM. A lot of model uncertainty still IMO and this isn't a slam dunk by any means. Do we see a further South track? Does the energy split happen? Again, we'll have to wait and see.

Great Post Les and the 12z HRRR run has the split but not like the earlier run so this will probably change each hour. Again we will watch the radar returns later today and hopefully by then each run will be similar in nature.

snowbo wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 9:07 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 8:30 am The monsoon season in the southwest is off to a slow start this season. Models are trying to set that up later next week. If this happens that usually leads to a drier and warmer than normal outlook for us. Maybe models are just heading back to the median on this but I can see where we see a few weeks of less rain and temps slightly above normal for the end of August. So maybe we get a few days in the 90's but first we have about another week or so of rain chances and the more rain we get and folks just to the west of us will also be a factor concerning temps later this month. If we have a wetter than normal soil then this would slow down the increase in temps by a few days before a drier soil takes place.

From my son in Phoenix: No measurable rain at the airport for 127 days. It's the second latest that any monsoon rain has started. If we don't get anything by August 14, it will be the latest start to the monsoon.

Wow! That is really an interesting stat. It just goes to show you how persistent the ridge West / trough East pattern has been. I see it persisting past that Aug 14th date too so it wouldn't surprise me to see the record broken for the latest start.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 9:25 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 8:41 am 11Z HRRR has the split that I mentioned yesterday. Looks like our top three tier of NKY counties get some rain and points further north. Counties S of the Metro get screwed. Again , hope that is wrong. I'm not sure if we'll see these 1-3" totals or not. Sure some folks will as long as that energy doesn't split. If it does, we'll see two areas of rain. One northward and the other southward. The gap in the middle may or may not be us. That is still a concern for me. Models are models and they won't get it exactly right, they rarely do so we'll have to watch the radar presentation this afternoon to get a better handle on it.

The 6Z NAM looks a lot like the 12z Euro from yesterday where the system tracks further south and our I-70 posters may not see much of anything and we'd get all the action down Cincy way and points south. I checked the 6Z Euro and it's in complete agreement with the NAM. A lot of model uncertainty still IMO and this isn't a slam dunk by any means. Do we see a further South track? Does the energy split happen? Again, we'll have to wait and see.

Great Post Les and the 12z HRRR run has the split but not like the earlier run so this will probably change each hour. Again we will watch the radar returns later today and hopefully by then each run will be similar in nature.

Thanks Tim. You're exactly right. The solutions will continue to change hour by hour as they usually do. My entire point was that this is not a slam dunk for the area to get the heavier rains. Even ILN mentioned the uncertainty in their overnight AFD.

EDIT: We need to keep an eye on how strong the surface low gets tonight and where it tracks. That is the entire key to our success or failure.

BG's update is just starting....

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 9:43 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 9:25 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 8:41 am 11Z HRRR has the split that I mentioned yesterday. Looks like our top three tier of NKY counties get some rain and points further north. Counties S of the Metro get screwed. Again , hope that is wrong. I'm not sure if we'll see these 1-3" totals or not. Sure some folks will as long as that energy doesn't split. If it does, we'll see two areas of rain. One northward and the other southward. The gap in the middle may or may not be us. That is still a concern for me. Models are models and they won't get it exactly right, they rarely do so we'll have to watch the radar presentation this afternoon to get a better handle on it.

The 6Z NAM looks a lot like the 12z Euro from yesterday where the system tracks further south and our I-70 posters may not see much of anything and we'd get all the action down Cincy way and points south. I checked the 6Z Euro and it's in complete agreement with the NAM. A lot of model uncertainty still IMO and this isn't a slam dunk by any means. Do we see a further South track? Does the energy split happen? Again, we'll have to wait and see.

Great Post Les and the 12z HRRR run has the split but not like the earlier run so this will probably change each hour. Again we will watch the radar returns later today and hopefully by then each run will be similar in nature.

Thanks Tim. You're exactly right. The solutions will continue to change hour by hour as they usually do. My entire point was that this is not a slam dunk for the area to get the heavier rains. Even ILN mentioned the uncertainty in their overnight AFD.

Interesting set up for mid-August so models will even have more of a problem with limited data. Looks like 2 pieces of energy with the first one hitting folks in southern Indiana and western Kentucky and then another one head more towards central Indiana,central and southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. If someone got both rounds then yes 1-3 very possible but with one round most totals will probably be under 1 inch though these systems are loaded with moisture but should be moving and not staying over one place for a longer period of time. I know out in Kansas this morning some really heavy rain but that is with several hours of heavy rainfall.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 9:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 9:43 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 9:25 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 8:41 am 11Z HRRR has the split that I mentioned yesterday. Looks like our top three tier of NKY counties get some rain and points further north. Counties S of the Metro get screwed. Again , hope that is wrong. I'm not sure if we'll see these 1-3" totals or not. Sure some folks will as long as that energy doesn't split. If it does, we'll see two areas of rain. One northward and the other southward. The gap in the middle may or may not be us. That is still a concern for me. Models are models and they won't get it exactly right, they rarely do so we'll have to watch the radar presentation this afternoon to get a better handle on it.

The 6Z NAM looks a lot like the 12z Euro from yesterday where the system tracks further south and our I-70 posters may not see much of anything and we'd get all the action down Cincy way and points south. I checked the 6Z Euro and it's in complete agreement with the NAM. A lot of model uncertainty still IMO and this isn't a slam dunk by any means. Do we see a further South track? Does the energy split happen? Again, we'll have to wait and see.

Great Post Les and the 12z HRRR run has the split but not like the earlier run so this will probably change each hour. Again we will watch the radar returns later today and hopefully by then each run will be similar in nature.

Thanks Tim. You're exactly right. The solutions will continue to change hour by hour as they usually do. My entire point was that this is not a slam dunk for the area to get the heavier rains. Even ILN mentioned the uncertainty in their overnight AFD.

Interesting set up for mid-August so models will even have more of a problem with limited data. Looks like 2 pieces of energy with the first one hitting folks in southern Indiana and western Kentucky and then another one head more towards central Indiana,central and southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. If someone got both rounds then yes 1-3 very possible but with one round most totals will probably be under 1 inch though these systems are loaded with moisture but should be moving and not staying over one place for a longer period of time. I know out in Kansas this morning some really heavy rain but that is with several hours of heavy rainfall.

If the split idea is wrong and we see a further south surface low track, then we're in the deformation zone and those heavier totals would have a good chance at occurring. But I am not so sure. I favor the split idea as that has been the trends for a lot of these systems this summer. Cincy Metro / NKY counties / SE Crew etc are most at risk for missing out on the better rainfall in my opinion.

12Z NAM is in now and it's sticking to its guns tracking a strong surface low right thru our area and we get heavy rains as a result. This run has over 3" at CVG so you know that is way way overdone. If this solution is correct, then an inch plus for sure can occur. Again, I'm not buying it. I want to see how the radar looks later this afternoon. Currently there are a few widely scattered showers over SE IN moving NE as the boundary is now starting to push into our area. Dews at CVG are now up to 69 degrees. High clouds from the MO convection has entered Western IN and eventually, we will see those clouds moving into our area around midday or so. We have some weak CAPE now over us with 30 knot bulk shear. We'll see what happens folks as the day continues to unfold.

Les sort of a forecasting headache. I listened to Brian and again he does a wonderful job but I could sort of tell in his voice today that we just need to watch what happens later today to get a better forecast. No doubt the LLJ tonight is going to provide some nice lift to the south of us but does this energy get so strong that it takes away from the piece of energy coming through our area. I don't have any ideal at this point but no doubt a bust on rainfall could go either way and again somebody in the Ohio Valley will get the shaft on rainfall.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:38 am Les sort of a forecasting headache. I listened to Brian and again he does a wonderful job but I could sort of tell in his voice today that we just need to watch what happens later today to get a better forecast. No doubt the LLJ tonight is going to provide some nice lift to the south of us but does this energy get so strong that it takes away from the piece of energy coming through our area. I don't have any ideal at this point but no doubt a bust on rainfall could go either way and again somebody in the Ohio Valley will get the shaft on rainfall.

What you just said Tim is exactly my concern that I highlighted in red. We watch and wait my friend.