June 2023 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

Currently for Sun a Marginal risk south of I-70 for the Tri-state.

...SUMMARY...
An organized cluster of thunderstorms may evolve across parts of the
Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley into Mid South vicinity Sunday
afternoon and evening. Initial storms may pose a risk for severe
hail, before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential
severe hazard.

...Southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley...
Considerable spread exists within/among the various model output,
but the interior U.S. circulation likely will be accompanied by
another intrusion of seasonably mild and dry air through much of the
northern and central Great Plains and upper/middle Mississippi
Valley, and at least modest surface cyclogenesis across the Ohio
Valley, by late Sunday night. Ahead of the cold front, near the
southwestern periphery of the developing mid-level low and the
northeastern periphery of building mid-level ridging, a seasonably
moist boundary-layer may become characterized by moderate to large
CAPE beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates by late Sunday
afternoon. Coupled with at least modest strengthening of westerly
to northwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, it appears that the
environment could support the evolution of one or two consolidating
and organizing clusters of thunderstorms posing increasing risk for
potentially damaging wind gusts through the late afternoon and
evening.

[tron777]

12Z GFS isn't too shabby either. A bit stronger with the entire system, but not as strong as the NAM. NAM is probably overdone.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS isn't too shabby either. A bit stronger with the entire system, but not as strong as the NAM. NAM is probably overdone.

Nice to see the models go upwards somewhat on totals. Again if someone gets under a thundershower for a few hours totals can be higher. Also, seeing some severe weather starting to show up south of us it telling me the pattern is changing and though I love the low humidity we need the rainfall.

[tron777]

The GFS had another dose of rain with a frontal system by Father's Day too.

[tron777]

Good evening! Got the lawn mowed today (minus the backyard, a hill and southern exposure so letting it go until I get back if rain does not pan out as expected). I maintained the curb appeal stuff. Fertilized all my plants so hopefully a dose or two of rain while I am gone and none will perish in my absence is the game plan. If we see rain, someone post CVG and / or Boone Co mesonet. I am in between the two so that gives me a rough idea of what I got. Thanks all!

Going to roll out tomorrow early afternoon so will pack up my stuff after breakfast.

[MVWxObserver]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
347 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ070-077>079-101100-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Butler-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
347 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northern
Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening. The
potential exists for a few storms to be strong to severe with
damaging winds the primary severe weather threat.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

$$

[tron777]

Good day all! 51 this morning here in my hood. A nice day on tap! Showers and T-storms will move into the area by late morning tomorrow. A break then more by late afternoon and evening. The action ends early Monday. Still like that half inch mark but some folks will luck out and get 1" plus.

Then we cool down a bit then back into the 80s with the next system by Wed and Thurs. A lovely Fri into Sat then we get another one for the weekend and esp on Father's Day the way it is looking at the present tome. Good news for our lawns and gardens in my opinion. Nothing drought busting mind you, but enough where we should not see D2 conditions (I hope lol)

For Lake Erie...rain and t-storms (non severe) are likely by tomorrow afternoon into Monday morning. Then another round on Tues. Looking like a scattered chance only Wed and Thurs so not bad. A nice day for Day 1 of the tournament Friday. Scattered chance only on Sat if we get clipped by that system expected to get you all down here moreso. Probably will be choppy at times... 2-4 footers common but that is pretty much a normal day anyway out there most of the time. Expecting 80s tomorrow ahead of the front, then 60s Mon and Tues. 70s thereafter. Morning lows in the 40s and 50s.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and another nice day but temps and humidity increasing. A messy system for Sunday and a few things to watch. Should have a warm/dew point front somewhere over Kentucky Sunday morning. Along and north of this front looks to see some rain and locally we need the front to stay just to the south of us. Then we get a cold front/low pressure that works it way through the area later in the day and at night. My guess most folks should be in that .5-1.0 range but as we know if you are under a thundershower or even a little training of rain which could happen then totals may be higher. Could some folks get under 1/2 inch and sure its possible and my guess that is further north and west.

Again not a drought buster but it helps plus cooler air after the front will help plenty of the rainfall to be beneficial to the vegetation. Could end up with a few showers Monday and Tuesday but these will not add to much rainfall and the further north you live the better shot. Then we get a few days of nice weather before we try and ramp up more rainfall late in the week and next weekend. Timing may not be the best but we can get say 2-3 inches over the next 10 days this does help with the drought conditions and also not longer term heat expected at this time

Did see one of the first heat advisories over southern Texas yesterday. I still believe this area is where the heat should expand over the next week or two and wait and see hot that expands and if that may head this way. Hopefully getting some decent rain before will temper the heat if it does end up in our area.

[tron777]

82 here so far today. Getting ready to roll out in the next hour or so. Should be there by this evening and ready to fish probably in the rain tomorrow. But it is what it is. I got a good rain suit. Packed warm clothes and shorts / t-shirt and sandals just in case of a nice day. Will post from time to time about our catches this week of prefishing. Then the tournament itself on Fri and Sat. It's going to be an interesting experience!

[tpweather]

82 here so far today. Getting ready to roll out in the next hour or so. Should be there by this evening and ready to fish probably in the rain tomorrow. But it is what it is. I got a good rain suit. Packed warm clothes and shorts / t-shirt and sandals just in case of a nice day. Will post from time to time about our catches this week of prefishing. Then the tournament itself on Fri and Sat. It's going to be an interesting experience!

Les have a great trip and hopefully you will get plenty of dry times ahead.

[tron777]

82 here so far today. Getting ready to roll out in the next hour or so. Should be there by this evening and ready to fish probably in the rain tomorrow. But it is what it is. I got a good rain suit. Packed warm clothes and shorts / t-shirt and sandals just in case of a nice day. Will post from time to time about our catches this week of prefishing. Then the tournament itself on Fri and Sat. It's going to be an interesting experience!

Les have a great trip and hopefully you will get plenty of dry times ahead.

Thanks Tim! Ideally dry there, wet here is what I am hoping for but I know better.

[MVWxObserver]

Marginal risk has been extended into the Miami Valley and central OH.

...Mid-MS Valley/Mid-South into the OH/TN Valley and Southeast...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the Mid MS Valley early
Sunday morning, in the vicinity of the surface low. General
expectation is for storm intensity and coverage to gradually
increase throughout the afternoon as the shortwave trough mentioned
in the synopsis approaches, encouraging the surface low
northeastward and its attendant front southeastward. Moderate air
mass destabilization is anticipated ahead of the front from central
AR into western/middle TN. Shear will be modest, but sufficient for
a few more organized multicell clusters. Steep low-level lapse rates
will contribute to the risk for damaging gusts, with a few updrafts
likely strong enough to produce hail as well.

Less destabilization is expected farther north across the OH Valley,
but increased shear and ascent near the surface could still
contribute to gusty winds with more robust storms.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and the sound of rain on the roof is wonderful. So far 0.15 and more to come this morning. This is the warm/dew point front heading north and east. A few more hours hopefully with rainfall before we get a break closer to mid-day. Then the system itself rolls in here for the afternoon and evening. Could we see severe weather and its possible especially if the sun comes out during the early afternoon. Main severe weather would be strong winds. Looks like everyone should get at least .5-1.0 and some folks depending on training or a nice thundershower could get well over an inch. Will this end the short term drought and no but we have not been that hot this late spring so vegetation should do well and the grass will green up big time. We could use a few more systems like this and Tuesday a chance of an afternoon shower but not everyone will see those and the totals are not great. Then we really get into a more typical mid-June pattern with temps getting into the mid-80's by the end of the week and then another chance next weekend of some rainfall. Still expecting the southern plains to start heating up and where does the heat go or does it stay in place. I believe there is a good chance it expands towards us in about 10 days and that is why rainfall leading up to the possible heat is so important.

[tpweather]

Just what the doctor ordered. The first round is moving southwest to northeast and should end for most folks by noon. I got very lucky with 0.56 so far.There is some sun in southern Kentucky and this could add some fuel later on. Many times when you get the morning rains it can hamper afternoon development but today that should not be the case. Will it hamper severe weather and maybe but if the sun decides to come out later then a better shot of at least some thundershowers or maybe thunderstorms.

[Mjr]

.30 here so far.
Won’t be watering our garden for a few days.

[tpweather]

.30 here so far.
Won’t be watering our garden for a few days.

Great news and the first round is starting to leave the local area but the second round will start to blossom over southern Indiana and western Kentucky in the next few hours and head this way for later in the afternoon and evening.

[tpweather]

First round total came in at 0.74. Looks like the central part of the local area did well or the I-275 corridor. I know some totals were lighter but most folks got in on some rainfall. Lets hope the next round produces a good .5-1 inch for everyone. Having cooler and dry air come in behind this system will help in keeping much of the water in the ground which helps vegetation.

[tpweather]

The sun is breaking out so that should makes us somewhat unstable later this afternoon and could lead to some stronger storms. Storms are building over southern Indiana and southwest Kentucky and those should increase in the next few hours and head this way.

[Wxlrnr]

Checked my rain guage, .75 inch of wonderful rain.

[tpweather]

Severe thunderstorm watch from about I-64and towards Nashville. They had less rain fall this morning so more unstable than locally but would not be surprised if that expand further north and east later today. How far north and not quite sure but only 330pm so plenty of time to get storms to fire.

[MVWxObserver]

My nephew and my niece in law in Franklin, TN and her folks and other family members of hers in Nashville are under the watch.

* Primary threats include...

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

A tornado or two possible

[tron777]

Great reports guys! A little rain up here this afternoon but not a bad day. We got our limit. Good eaters. Need to find the big ones for the tournament. Biggest fish went 5 1/2 pounds and that isn't going to cut it.

Tomorrow and Tuesday look windy so not sure if we'll be able to get out or not. We'll see how it goes.

[tpweather]

Les good to hear from you. Thunder has started and the next round on its way. No doubt more heavy rain but will any of the storms get to severe weather. Again not a drought breaker but quite a bit of rainfall for folks that have been rather dry this spring.

[tpweather]

Very strong storm. Heavy rain and strong winds and a touch of hail