Absolute Vorticity

Philippe is moving N at 10 mph with sustained winds of 45 mph.

A disturbance off the coast of Africa has a 40% chance of development over the next few days.

The far eastern Atlantic disturbance has a 70% chance of development and also a disturbance with a 20% in the Bay of Campeche.

Doubtful that the BOC disturbance will be having much of a future though.

The African wave may become our next system but longer term guidance has it being a fish storm.

Now up to 80%

TD19 has formed

We now have TS Sean with winds of 40 mph moving WNW at 13. NHC currently expects this one to remain a TS then weaken into a TD by the weekend. There is another wave behind Sean that has a 30% chance of development.

TS Sean is still moving WNW at 13 mph with winds of 40 mph.

Sean moving NW at 12 mph with winds still at 40 mph.

Sean is now moving WNW at 14 mph with winds of 45 mph.

TS Sean has winds of 40 mph this morning. He will become a depression soon and be gone after this weekend. Meanwhile, the tropical wave to its southeast now has a 70% chance to develop over the next 5 days. This system may or may not become an issue for the CONUS down the road. We shall see!

Sean moving WNW at 12 mph with winds still at 40 mph. The tropical wave is currently at 20%.

Sean weakening as forecast and is moving NW at 8 mph with winds of 35 mph.

Tropical wave "near" Sean has a 70% chance of development over the next few days.

There is a 50% chance that a tropical wave over the Central ATL forms. An 80% chance over the next 5 days.

TS Tammy is born with winds of 40 mph moving W at 23 mph. This system looks to impact the N Leeward Islands before recurving well East of Bermuda and not bothering any land masses after that.

Hurricane Tammy is moving NW at 9 mph with sustained winds of 80 mph.

Tammy will eventually turn more NW then N and eventually NE and move on out to sea. We also have a new wave in the SW Caribbean but it won't be over water long enough to develop as it moves into Central America in a few days.

Tammy has winds of 85 mph finally making the slow turn towards the north as it pulls away from the Leeward Islands. This one is slowing down and will be on the map for a while.

The SW Caribbean wave has a 50% chance now, but it will move into Central America on Tues of next week so it's window to form is short.

Tammy is weakening now and will become a TS shortly. It is currently moving NE at 9 mph. The track on this one keeps changing as the NHC now expects it to bend back towards the West and get Bermuda as a weak TS. Does this system impact the CONUS or get kicked out to sea? We need another week or so before we will truly know.

TD 21 is rolling into Central America moving NW at 5 mph. We can pretty much say goodbye to this one.

Tammy is back up to 100 mph now. NHC is still expecting this one to die a slow death near Bermuda over the next week.

Tammy is now a post tropical cyclone per the NHC. This system will continue to meander around E of Bermuda and eventually fade away by the looks of it.

Tammy is back on the map again having re-generated back into a TS. Winds are at 50 mph moving NE at 7. She is well East of Bermuda and will eventually move more East then back to the SW before dying completely by Halloween or so.

One other wave in the SW Caribbean is moving slowly northward that has a low chance to develop 20% over the next 5-7 days.

Tammy is back to a PTC again and this time, we should be able to take her off the map. We also have a new wave SE of the Bahamas which may become a TD per the NHC. An Airforce Recon plane is going to investigate the system later today. Current odds are at 70% for development.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

The wave near the Bahamas is undergoing shear so it's odds of development have dropped to 20%. The other wave in Caribbean has a 50% chance in the next 5 days but that one will be moving west and eventually encounter Central America whether it develops further or not. At this time, no CONUS are expected over the next week.

The Caribbean wave now has a 70% chance in the next 5 days and could become a TS before it runs into Central America. Again, no CONUS impacts are expected at this time.