Absolute Vorticity

18Z NAM looks pretty ominous for Friday. Another low CAPE, high shear event per this run. Pretty typical for this time of year.

Raining near Oxford now. We’ll see how things shake out over the next couple hours.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 6:07 pm 18Z NAM looks pretty ominous for Friday. Another low CAPE, high shear event per this run. Pretty typical for this time of year.

I believe Friday afternoon will be determined by the early morning round of rainfall. The more we get and the longer it lasts the less of chances for severe weather. Monday was different and we really did not have much rain before hand and made it much easier for the sun to come out. Will be another now cast but if some of the heavier rainfall totals occur then my guess the severe weather will be tamed down some though strong winds once again is very likely.

Hope its not like summer where the clouds build in your back yard and it looks great for a storm but you end up with sprinkles and 30 miles down the road they got 1-2 inches of rainfall

Heavy rain shower now over northern Butler Co.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 6:11 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 6:07 pm 18Z NAM looks pretty ominous for Friday. Another low CAPE, high shear event per this run. Pretty typical for this time of year.

I believe Friday afternoon will be determined by the early morning round of rainfall. The more we get and the longer it lasts the less of chances for severe weather. Monday was different and we really did not have much rain before hand and made it much easier for the sun to come out. Will be another now cast but if some of the heavier rainfall totals occur then my guess the severe weather will be tamed down some though strong winds once again is very likely.

Agreed. Even with lots of morning rains, isolated severe is still on the table. But like you said, if we get a break and some instability, could be another big day.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 6:04 pm I just want some thunder and lightning

Same here bro!

Unfortunately any action looks to remain south of I-70 this go-around.

My area didn't even get any thunder on Mon.

Hearing thunder in Lebanon. Majority will pass north of me though.

Very dark sky to the north and thunder/lightning. Close! But a miss to my north.

Northern Butler Co has been getting pounded. More development to the WSW to watch for areas further south.

Looks like some areas across N Butler Co may flirt with an inch.

Severe thunderstorm warnings for the cells heading toward NKY

Impressive hail core for the cell entering Carrollton.

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It’ll be close there for ya Les! I bet you have a nice light show to your west right now.

Heavy cell on the west side right now as well.

Can hear some thunder to my SW right now.

2250 UNK 3 NNW MOSELEYVILLE DAVIESS KY 3770 8722 TWO GARAGES COLLAPSED ALONG WAYNE BRIDGES ROAD WEST OF HWY 81. (PAH)

2250 UNK 3 N MOSELEYVILLE DAVIESS KY 3771 8719 SEMI BLOWN OFF THE ROAD ON HIGHWAY 81. POWER LINE DOWN. (PAH)

2250 UNK 4 N MOSELEYVILLE DAVIESS KY 3772 8718 WEST DAVIESS COUNTY AT ROME. LARGE PINE TREE AND WEEPING WILLOW BLOWN OVER. WIND WAS SO STRONG WE COULDNT SEE THE ROAD WHICH IS ABOUT 100 YARDS AWAY. BARN BLOWN DOWN. (PAH)

Might get a little action to kick off March. Radar looking interesting!

SPS from the boys:

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OHIO, SOUTHERN
DEARBORN, NORTH CENTRAL SWITZERLAND, NORTHERN KENTON AND BOONE
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EST...

At 712 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Dillsboro,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
objects.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Independence, Erlanger, Edgewood, Elsmere, Fort Mitchell,
Villa Hills, Crescent Springs, Aurora, Crestview Hills, Lakeside
Park, Rising Sun, Oakbrook, Burlington, Union, Dillsboro, French,
Hartford, Aberdeen and Idlewild.

Couple C-G’s to your west Les.

72 / 50 IMBY with thunder and lightning. Getting noisy out there! Awaiting to see how much of the core can get this far north.

Direct hit Mr. Les!

Booming thunder now! Big time lightning wow!

Earlier runs of the HRRR def scored on this.

Very heavy rain and small hail! Told ya, my best storms come now versus summer!