Absolute Vorticity

3-5” still for cvg.

GFS isn't horrible. I agree.

I know these snow maps keep showing a nice snow, but backside snow is almost always overestimated by models. This run is just another step to the Euro's consistency.

Gfs fall to the EU track pretty much complete. We'll see more changes in the track but not expecting any major changes. Probably oscillating the track between just south of Indy to just south of Chicago a few more runs

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:58 pm Gfs fall to the EU track pretty much complete. We'll see more changes in the track but not expecting any major changes. Probably oscillating the track between just south of Indy to just south of Chicago a few more runs

Yeah depressing considering what it looked like yesterday... But typical for us.

Make no mistake ,this is still going to be a huge PITA storm to deal with , condition wise

I’ll wait and see what the models do tonight and tomorrow. This is a complex system.

mikeyp wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 6:04 pm I’ll wait and see what the models do tonight and tomorrow. This is a complex system.

I like your optimism

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 6:08 pm

mikeyp wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 6:04 pm I’ll wait and see what the models do tonight and tomorrow. This is a complex system.

I like your optimism

It’s not going to be what I was hoping for but I can’t throw in the towel yet.

Can we just take a minute to address how bad modeling still is past 7 days? Three days ago we were talking a foot of snow in ATL. Some of us have been in the same forums for over 15 years. Seems like long-term verification should have improved more over that period of time.

AddisonJM wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 6:32 pm Can we just take a minute to address how bad modeling still is past 7 days? Three days ago we were talking a foot of snow in ATL. Some of us have been in the same forums for over 15 years. Seems like long-term verification should have improved more over that period of time.

Lol I couldn’t agree more with you!

I would be fine if we got 1.5 inches of snow. Melt it off the lots with salt and be done with it.. My plows are not working anyway.

Snow Talk

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 6:54 pm Snow Talk

Great video by Brian. You could sense the uneasiness in his presentation.

At least the bengals won!!! Who Dey!

Hey guys... back home in KY. Going to watch BG's video then make one more post then bed. I am beat.

18Z Euro ends at 90 hours, and this is the text data for Thurs morning 7am at CVG when the model ends:
Here's the same time period from the 12Z run. As you can see, 18Z run was a tad colder.

18Z EPS SLP clusters.... A track thru Indiana and into Michigan is favored. A few Apps runners still but west of Cincinnati is highly likely in my honest opinion.



EDIT: Ok, bed time! Catch up with you all in the morning. Keep the discussion going please.

Good Evening and what a day of football and back to the weather. I had no ideal Brian worked on Sunday's so I will need to watch that later this evening as I watch another football game lol. I know folks are going to either be happy or sad with each run of the model but understand this storm is one we don't see around here often and getting the forecast correct this early is almost impossible. This is not the blizzard of 78 and that may never happen in my lifetime again but the storm has plenty of punch. My biggest concern has always been the flash freeze with temperature probably dropping 30 degrees in just a few hours late Thursday or early Friday depending on the timing. Next problem is the winds and they will blow any snow around but the wind chills will be dangerous and I would not be surprised to see them at -25 or maybe lower on Friday. Okay will they issue a blizzard warning too somebody in the mid-west and/or Ohio Valley? So I will not make any forecast of snow as it is way to early but I do believe a more southerly track than the Euro is showing as I still believe models are not grasping on the depth of this cold air.

Gummer just did a Facebook live thing. He’s very concerned about the wind and flash freezing. Didn’t give a snow total.

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:20 pm Gummer just did a Facebook live thing. He’s very concerned about the wind and flash freezing. Didn’t give a snow total.

Thanks Lisa and I believe that is the biggest concern and that looks very likely. Whether we get to blizzard conditions may be secondary and again the exact track,strength and speed of the system will determine if we get that 1-3 inches or quite a bit higher. Just too early for snowfall totals and even once we believe we have that down we know those totals will still vary even hours before the storm hits.

Christ Bailey's website has crashed LOL

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:25 pm Christ Bailey's website has crashed LOL

My guess this will be common among weather sites this week.

the trend is your friend. not looking good for the OV blizzard. who knows maybe models will correct back east in the next couple days.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:20 pm the trend is your friend. not looking good for the OV blizzard. who knows maybe models will correct back east in the next couple days.

This trend is going to be back in the pacific if it goes any further west haha.