Absolute Vorticity

Good morning all....

One more above avg and nice week of weather. Nicole in the tropics may cause some problems later on for FL as well as the Eastern seaboard. After she passes, the pattern is allowed to change by this weekend. Now the question is... can we get our first snow event of the season while the cold is around? Models have been showing some light snow / mixed precip and cold rain too around the Nov. 14th period and beyond. We'll see in the next 7-10 days if something just does indeed get cooking. Until then... the good wx continues now thru perhaps Veteran's Day on Friday.

No excuses not to vote tomorrow on Election Day folks... weather should be just fine. 6am to 6pm in IN and KY while OH has hours of 6:30am to 7:30pm. I don't care who you vote for, it's none of my business. Just vote !!! Thank you.

TO : Woolyworm!!! Hope you have a great day at the woodpile and may your snowy dreams this winter come true!!!

Happy birthday to my favorite woolyworm! Have a great day!

Now that the MJO is in Phase 8 it is assisting with the -EPO which will be driving the pattern starting this weekend once Nicole / cold front passes to our East. The PNA may get positive, we'll see on that... with the AO and NAO both going negative or at least closer to neutral. The EPO tanking very deeply negative is going to be in control with several cold air attacks in mid to late November likely. Any snow remains to be seen but one would assume at least 1 chance is there. 2 if things go completely right.

Happy Birthday Woolyworm!!!

The front that brings in the cold this weekend may come thru dry. 12Z GFS shows that nicely. Then do we get any snow while the cold air is around? This model run says no phasing, energy gets sheared due to strong northern jet. Then it relaxes and another arctic front drops in towards the end of the run. So we've got a couple of shots of wintry precip depending on how things shake out in the extended range.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 07, 2022 7:29 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 07, 2022 2:37 am I hate hearing anything about real cold and snow this time of year I want fall and i want to enjoy autumn temps for as long as possible it is only early November yet. i am not sure why anyone would want cold and winter storms this time of year fall is short enough season as it is.

My original call was for it to change after Thanksgiving. It's going to change earlier like starting this weekend. Might see some snow by Day 10-15 somewhere in the Eastern US.

man I hope not that would really suck if we get snow that early. it happened a few years ago here. it snowed like 8" the middle of the month. right now its sunny and 71 degrees. feels more like May. hopefully things change for a more warmer outcome as I want to enjoy fall and marginal temps for a bit. once we get into December then I dont mind to see some snow

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 07, 2022 1:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 07, 2022 7:29 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 07, 2022 2:37 am I hate hearing anything about real cold and snow this time of year I want fall and i want to enjoy autumn temps for as long as possible it is only early November yet. i am not sure why anyone would want cold and winter storms this time of year fall is short enough season as it is.

My original call was for it to change after Thanksgiving. It's going to change earlier like starting this weekend. Might see some snow by Day 10-15 somewhere in the Eastern US.

man I hope not that would really suck if we get snow that early. it happened a few years ago here. it snowed like 8" the middle of the month. right now its sunny and 71 degrees. feels more like May. hopefully things change for a more warmer outcome as I want to enjoy fall and marginal temps for a bit. once we get into December then I dont mind to see some snow

With the tanking EPO, colder times are ahead. This might be the last warm stretch we see for a while after this week.

66 at CVG today, 68 here. Sun is now setting thanks to the time change so we're already dropping quickly thanks to clear skies, dry air, and light winds. 60 here attm. Now, some high clouds will move in to keep us from bottoming out. U30s to L40s ought to work for most folks tonight. Gorgeous thru Vet's Day then a dry frontal passage and welcome to winter! By this weekend and into next week... expect lows in the 20s and highs U30s to L40s. Brrr!

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 07, 2022 1:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 07, 2022 7:29 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 07, 2022 2:37 am I hate hearing anything about real cold and snow this time of year I want fall and i want to enjoy autumn temps for as long as possible it is only early November yet. i am not sure why anyone would want cold and winter storms this time of year fall is short enough season as it is.

My original call was for it to change after Thanksgiving. It's going to change earlier like starting this weekend. Might see some snow by Day 10-15 somewhere in the Eastern US.

man I hope not that would really suck if we get snow that early. it happened a few years ago here. it snowed like 8" the middle of the month. right now its sunny and 71 degrees. feels more like May. hopefully things change for a more warmer outcome as I want to enjoy fall and marginal temps for a bit. once we get into December then I dont mind to see some snow

I can relate, Charles, as I'd rather see a major change after Thanksgiving. Ma Nature sure is at a rapid fire pace this year.

At least the weather is good for Election Day tomorrow. Hope all can get out and vote. Going to try and get my butt out of bed early and vote before I start working.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 07, 2022 7:01 pm At least the weather is good for Election Day tomorrow. Hope all can get out and vote. Going to try and get my butt out of bed early and vote before I start working.

Yes, thankfully a NO excuse get out and vote Election Day in this very important time in our country.

My folks and I voted the 2nd day of OH early voting on Oct 13th.

My Mom's older sister works at a poll here in Greenville each Election Day.

Currently 50 here in G'ville.

I have dropped to 52 / 29 as of this post. A crisp evening! Nice night for a bonfire if I didn't have to work.

I voted! I hope you do too! 45 here this morning on our way into the 60 to 65 degree range today. 70+ tomorrow and Thurs, 60s Fri then cold.

Concerning this Friday... how far West does Nicole track? That will determine if we get wet or not around here. Eastern counties look to get some rain from this. Some models do, some don't for the Cincy Metro. Further west nothing at all but clouds. So that's what we need to focus on even before the cold gets here.

At CVG, the models give us this:

6Z NAM: 1" ending 1pm Friday.
6Z GFS: 0.01" - event total
6Z Euro: 0.60" ending 7pm Friday.

So we'll see what happens there as we get closer. Otherwise, it gets cold and dry thereafter. Any snow threats right now look minimal. Watching the period around the 16th give or take a couple of days but that's about it. Just watching with one eye open kind of deal.

Oh... did anyone besides me happen to see the lunar eclipse this morning? It was pretty cool seeing the red moon too. Next one won't be until 2025 I believe.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:12 am Concerning this Friday... how far West does Nicole track? That will determine if we get wet or not around here. Eastern counties look to get some rain from this. Some models do, some don't for the Cincy Metro. Further west nothing at all but clouds. So that's what we need to focus on even before the cold gets here.

At CVG, the models give us this:

6Z NAM: 1" ending 1pm Friday.
6Z GFS: 0.01" - event total
6Z Euro: 0.60" ending 7pm Friday.

So we'll see what happens there as we get closer. Otherwise, it gets cold and dry thereafter. Any snow threats right now look minimal. Watching the period around the 16th give or take a couple of days but that's about it. Just watching with one eye open kind of deal.

Would be nice if this west trend could continue, drought damage continues to increase in the landscape. 60 days and only .75"-1.50" of qpf for a large chunk of the region. Wouldn't have thought that was possible for this time of year . Situation is getting serious for all evergreens for the winter if there is not deep moisture for them to pull from. It's going to take a tremendous amount of rain to reach 12 - 18" in the root zone. Water those evergreens!!!!!

Yea eclipse was awesome out my way

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:36 am Would be nice if this west trend could continue, drought damage continues to increase in the landscape. 60 days and only .75"-1.50" of qpf for a large chunk of the region. Wouldn't have thought that was possible for this time of year . Situation is getting serious for all evergreens for the winter if there is not deep moisture for them to pull from. It's going to take a tremendous amount of rain to reach 12 - 18" in the root zone. Water those evergreens!!!!!

Yea eclipse was awesome out my way

No doubt! Would love to get an inch of rain or whatever. Beats anything I have seen in quite a while as you mentioned. Nicole is taking an odd track too. The warm pattern is going out with a bang so to speak.

Weekly LaNina from cpc . Region 3.4 down slightly again with 1.2 remaining steady. Expect peak to be occurring now or next week , then more or less holding steady for a few more after that , we still have that cold water in region 1.2 to move through. Changes I see are that the easterly anomalies have weakened the past week or 2 as models predicted.

12Z NAM shifted East with Nicole's track taking the better rains with it. Only 0.29" on this run at CVG.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:55 am Weekly LaNina from cpc . Region 3.4 down slightly again with 1.2 remaining steady. Expect peak to be occurring now or next week , then more or less holding steady for a few more after that , we still have that cold water in region 1.2 to move through. Changes I see are that the easterly anomalies have weakened the past week or 2 as models predicted.

The big SOI drop that is happening right now is also of interest. I wonder if some storminess in the STJ is coming down the road or a sign the Nina maybe is peaking?

12Z GFS is west of 6Z, but not as far west as the NAM. Brings rains to our doorstep. SE counties get some rain out of it. Rest of us dry. Due to the strength of the incoming arctic front, it's going to be tough for Nicole to get very far west. If we had a ridge overhead, it would be very warm, but 1-3" of rain would fall. We've got a cold airmass pressing in at the same time Nicole is coming up the Eastern US. Just bad timing is all and that bad timing could screw us out of some rainfall. Def a possibility but until we get closer, confidence is going to remain low anyway as to her exact track. We know the speed of the front is very fast with falling temps on Friday. Highs will be early in the day.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:56 am 12Z GFS is west of 6Z, but not as far west as the NAM. Brings rains to our doorstep. SE counties get some rain out of it. Rest of us dry. Due to the strength of the incoming arctic front, it's going to be tough for Nicole to get very far west. If we had a ridge overhead, it would be very warm, but 1-3" of rain would fall. We've got a cold airmass pressing in at the same time Nicole is coming up the Eastern US. Just bad timing is all and that bad timing could screw us out of some rainfall. Def a possibility but until we get closer, confidence is going to remain low anyway as to her exact track. We know the speed of the front is very fast with falling temps on Friday. Highs will be early in the day.

Yeah, If Nicole can just speed up a little and be stronger, she would hold back the front some and we would be golden for Friday. I'm just not seeing any good rains or snow over the next two weeks. On another note...I really hope that we don't get into a cold dry pattern for this winter as I'm starting to see this current pattern repeat itself. Nothing worse than a cold dry winter!