Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 10, 2022 5:52 pm High of 72 here today! Another beauty! Another wonderful day tomorrow. Warm Wed, but small rain chances possible. A damp Wed night then back to Fall. We are still looking at a high in the 50s, lows in the 30s type of regime after this weekend when the next front arrives. By Columbus Day, Highs 50 to 55 across AV Country? Very possible!

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Oct 10, 2022 6:23 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 10, 2022 5:52 pm High of 72 here today! Another beauty! Another wonderful day tomorrow. Warm Wed, but small rain chances possible. A damp Wed night then back to Fall. We are still looking at a high in the 50s, lows in the 30s type of regime after this weekend when the next front arrives. By Columbus Day, Highs 50 to 55 across AV Country? Very possible!

Umm, isn't this Columbus Day? Or am I reading that wrong? Very dry up. Will clean up all the properties this week and then skip next week. By the following week leaf work should be in the early stages.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 10, 2022 6:31 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Oct 10, 2022 6:23 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 10, 2022 5:52 pm High of 72 here today! Another beauty! Another wonderful day tomorrow. Warm Wed, but small rain chances possible. A damp Wed night then back to Fall. We are still looking at a high in the 50s, lows in the 30s type of regime after this weekend when the next front arrives. By Columbus Day, Highs 50 to 55 across AV Country? Very possible!

Umm, isn't this Columbus Day? Or am I reading that wrong? Very dry up. Will clean up all the properties this week and then skip next week. By the following week leaf work should be in the early stages.

No I am way wrong! I meant Monday Oct 17th, but yes today is Columbus Day, not then. Sorry about that.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 10, 2022 1:23 pm Well well well what does the CMC have cooking for early next week. If you guessed snow you are correct. I agree the cold shot imo looks decent but can we get some flakes to fly. The CMC tends to be a tad colder than other models and usually ahead of the game about 3 times each winter.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 3:27 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 10, 2022 1:23 pm Well well well what does the CMC have cooking for early next week. If you guessed snow you are correct. I agree the cold shot imo looks decent but can we get some flakes to fly. The CMC tends to be a tad colder than other models and usually ahead of the game about 3 times each winter.

its possible with a cold enough upper air mass but unlikely. the earliest snow flurries I have ever seen was October 15 2009. it was a very cold fall that year and remember seeing a few flurries that afternoon while out hunting.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:14 am Good Morning Les and really no changes to the forecast except timing of cold fronts over the next couple of weeks. Nice to see a below normal October in terms of temps has in recent years we have been very mild. Does this help get winter going early and I believe that is possible. Still believe a warm up will come over the next 6 weeks but to what extent and how long is TBD. No doubt it would be nice to see some rain and I believe that will pick up though at the moment we are getting very little help from the GOM. Yes on Wednesday we finally get a push of moisture this way but the amount of time where rain is possible is short plus it takes time to moisten up all layers of the atmosphere especially the lower layers. Still believe a really nice shot of cold air early next week and also models are showing another shot later next week. My only project left this fall is taking care of the leaves as many other chores have been taken care because of the nice weather.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 1:11 pm The extended range today on the 12Z GFS is something you would expect to see in November instead of October with continued strong cold fronts and blasts of cold air.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 1:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 1:11 pm The extended range today on the 12Z GFS is something you would expect to see in November instead of October with continued strong cold fronts and blasts of cold air.

I agree Les and would not be surprised if that switches around in November. Each run of the 3 major models and you will get some different outcomes concerning the short waves and long waves but all very much into the below normal average over the next 10 days or so. Always some timing differences when you are more than 5 days out or so from most events. I believe peak season for leaves will be this weekend which is probably a good 7-10 days earlier than normal and several weeks earlier than the past few years. Also with the very strong ridging in the western 1/3 of the country these produces some problems for southeast Alaska because systems that normally start to filter into the pacific northwest are all heading for the southeast part of Alaska. Yes producing some snow as expected but some very heavy rain and several events in a row.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 2:20 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 2:38 pm One other item that Brian mentioned is the cold for early next week and I have been pushing this hard as I really believe we could see a day in the 40's and snowflakes not just a dream. So if you have not turned on the furnace by know then early next looks like a go.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 3:14 pm Today there is the clouds and rain in Illinois and they are ahead of the front and some areas in the 50's. Next week we will be behind a cold front and if you get an upper low fairly close you can no doubt have a day in the low-mid 40's. Deeper into fall and those cloudy days can really keep those temps down.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 3:21 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 3:14 pm Today there is the clouds and rain in Illinois and they are ahead of the front and some areas in the 50's. Next week we will be behind a cold front and if you get an upper low fairly close you can no doubt have a day in the low-mid 40's. Deeper into fall and those cloudy days can really keep those temps down.

I'm going with the 50s on Monday. If that closed upper low 's position is right with it being much more to the south, then absolutely, it would be 40s without a doubt. I just don't see enough support for that solution. The upper low should swing by to our north over the lakes and into Upstate NY and S Ontario. I do see us being post frontal though as you mentioned with the next front coming in on Sunday late in the weekend. I just don't think that upper low will be that far to the south to justify highs in the 40s. Plenty of time to watch it for sure.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 4:08 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 3:21 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 3:14 pm Today there is the clouds and rain in Illinois and they are ahead of the front and some areas in the 50's. Next week we will be behind a cold front and if you get an upper low fairly close you can no doubt have a day in the low-mid 40's. Deeper into fall and those cloudy days can really keep those temps down.

I'm going with the 50s on Monday. If that closed upper low 's position is right with it being much more to the south, then absolutely, it would be 40s without a doubt. I just don't see enough support for that solution. The upper low should swing by to our north over the lakes and into Upstate NY and S Ontario. I do see us being post frontal though as you mentioned with the next front coming in on Sunday late in the weekend. I just don't think that upper low will be that far to the south to justify highs in the 40s. Plenty of time to watch it for sure.

Hey Les I am going with 50's on Monday but on Tuesday I will be sticking with the 40's. Again well below normal but my thinking is a cloudy day with some light showers and even a few flakes could mix in at night. Again not a snowstorm but a few flakes I can see that happening.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 4:45 pm One thing I did notice today was rain totals have gone up for Wednesday in most areas. I am sticking with .25-.50 at the moment. I understand if someone gets under a thundershower you could expect a little more. Was this a blip today or a trend we need to look at in the morning.