Absolute Vorticity

Ok good morning all! For those who need rain (Tim is probably a yes, perhaps Bo? Not sure about anyone else unless they speak up.) Anyway for the rest of us, we get some dry out time and cleaning up time. Low humidity and delightful temps expected today and Thurs. Watch for AM Fog of course with the abundance of moisture on the ground. Then, by Friday, still expecting it to stay dry during the day but warmer and more humid, mid 80s. POPS are back into the 50 / 50 category Saturday as the Gulf opens up for business. Likely Sunday going into next week with a cold front entering the area. I'd go 50-60% Monday and 30% Tues to account for any lingering activity. A pattern similar to what we just had. Some folks get hammered with 2"+ of rain and others not much to perhaps nothing. When you have these cut off or upper level lows, the atmospheric steering currents are light still this time of year. It's Met Fall but still very much a summery pattern right now so it's just the way it goes until the polar westerlies dip more south to keep storm systems moving. Lot of blocking high to our West (+PNA) and North (-AO / -NAO) is our pattern right now so the storminess gets trapped underneath it. We like this in the winter, not so much right now.

Ok so after Tuesday of next week, we look to remain dry until either next Fri or you guessed it, next week with the next system coming in. We'll worry about that one later.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 8:21 am Ok good morning all! For those who need rain (Tim is probably a yes, perhaps Bo? Not sure about anyone else unless they speak up.)

Oddly I am ready for some dryness in my hood. I think the dome is back though so my belly aching about storms dodging me will prob happen again this weekend!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 8:25 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 8:21 am Ok good morning all! For those who need rain (Tim is probably a yes, perhaps Bo? Not sure about anyone else unless they speak up.)

Oddly I am ready for some dryness in my hood. I think the dome is back though so my belly aching about storms dodging me will prob happen again this weekend!

Just hope we don't have to do it much come winter! That's always my main concern with summer rains of course being second.

I got a big fat zero yesterday. It's my own fault though. Thought we were going to get some rain and put down some fertilizer and grass seed over the weekend. That combination of events either dries everything up or brings on torrential downpours that wash everything away. This time, we went dry!

snowbo wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 9:08 am I got a big fat zero yesterday. It's my own fault though. Thought we were going to get some rain and put down some fertilizer and grass seed over the weekend. That combination of events either dries everything up or brings on torrential downpours that wash everything away. This time, we went dry!

Hopefully your turn will be this weekend but it'll either be feast or famine as has been the case with rainfall distribution all summer long.

Not much change from the 12z GFS. We know our rainy fate / potential going forward. Hurricane Kay in the East Pac will eventually be TS Kay and impact S CALI and the Desert SW with hvy flooding rains. Remember they do not see much rain in these regions like Death Valley and the Mojave Desert. It was 124 there yesterday for example. So flash flooding will be big news this weekend in that region. For us, our rain chances not related in anyway to Kay, comes from the Gulf as the tropical flow commences on the backside of the current high giving us great weather!

Longer term, next system still due in sometime either next weekend or the week after in the form of a cold front (9/19ish). We still await the potential post Day 10 of an African wave turning into something other then a fish storm which Danielle, Earl and the soon to be Fiona. It is the G storm that we may have to watch which is the next wave currently coming off of the African Coast. We have plenty of time to monitor it even when I get back from Cass.

Still waiting on a more fall like pattern to show up consistently on the guidance. My original call was for this humid and tropical pattern for us to end near mid month, but not so confident yet. Will have to re-visit that when I get back to see what went wrong with that timing if it does not occur.

Good Afternoon. Interesting setup again for this weekend. Tons of moisture just sitting in the GOM once again and a low looks to be somewhere in the Ohio Valley. Will it turn out like the last system with some folks getting hammered and others getting enough not to water their flowers. Wish I had the answer and you usually tend to go with trends in weather and at this point must go that way. Either way plenty of clouds wit high temps running below normal and low temps running above normal. Will this system hang around or start to move out early next week and another one that can go either way. So like Les mentioned we are not in fall mode but saying that we are getting enough rain and clouds to keep us getting out of hand temp wise.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 1:42 pm Good Afternoon. Interesting setup again for this weekend. Tons of moisture just sitting in the GOM once again and a low looks to be somewhere in the Ohio Valley. Will it turn out like the last system with some folks getting hammered and others getting enough not to water their flowers. Wish I had the answer and you usually tend to go with trends in weather and at this point must go that way. Either way plenty of clouds wit high temps running below normal and low temps running above normal. Will this system hang around or start to move out early next week and another one that can go either way. So like Les mentioned we are not in fall mode but saying that we are getting enough rain and clouds to keep us getting out of hand temp wise.

If the Euro is right, 85% of you will salvage a nice Saturday with the slower movement of the incoming gulf moisture and cold front. Only scattered storms being shown for Sunday afternoon so a 50 / 50 chance if correct. Sun night into Monday is our best chance per the Euro. Then we get the upper low right over us by Tues night and Wed so more shower activity then. Finally it's over by Thurs.

BG 2pm update:

Good Afternoon and another lovely lol day here in Greenville. Hear a little thunder and hot and humid. Concerning the weekend and I believe going to be wet at home and down here in Greenville. Been raining quite a bit over the past 40 months we have been down here and only 9 more to go after September. Euro has done well lately but I believe there will be enough push of moisture to have rain this weekend.

(Tim is probably a yes, perhaps Bo? Not sure about anyone else unless they speak up.)

I could use some more Bro as I only had .20" this past weekend.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:48 pm (Tim is probably a yes, perhaps Bo? Not sure about anyone else unless they speak up.)

I could use some more Bro as I only had .20" this past weekend.

Okay so we've got three of you. One in NKY and the others in our I-70 Crew Zone! Tim... you'll probably get clobbered since I won't be here to steal your rain from you.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:51 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:48 pm (Tim is probably a yes, perhaps Bo? Not sure about anyone else unless they speak up.)

I could use some more Bro as I only had .20" this past weekend.

Okay so we've got three of you. One in NKY and the others in our I-70 Crew Zone! Tim... you'll probably get clobbered since I won't be here to steal your rain from you.

Lol Les and I will be watching this weekend and make sure my rain is not being stolen. I just hope its not raining during the Bengals game as I believe they are the better team and would like dry conditions.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:36 pm Good Afternoon and another lovely lol day here in Greenville. Hear a little thunder and hot and humid. Concerning the weekend and I believe going to be wet at home and down here in Greenville. Been raining quite a bit over the past 40 months we have been down here and only 9 more to go after September. Euro has done well lately but I believe there will be enough push of moisture to have rain this weekend.

Hi Tim,

How are your grandchildren doing?

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:55 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:51 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:48 pm (Tim is probably a yes, perhaps Bo? Not sure about anyone else unless they speak up.)

I could use some more Bro as I only had .20" this past weekend.

Okay so we've got three of you. One in NKY and the others in our I-70 Crew Zone! Tim... you'll probably get clobbered since I won't be here to steal your rain from you.

Lol Les and I will be watching this weekend and make sure my rain is not being stolen. I just hope its not raining during the Bengals game as I believe they are the better team and would like dry conditions.

No doubt! Pitt doesn't have a great QB anymore with Big Ben retiring. As long as the defense for Cincy can make a few key plays, they should be able to walk away with a W.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:57 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:36 pm Good Afternoon and another lovely lol day here in Greenville. Hear a little thunder and hot and humid. Concerning the weekend and I believe going to be wet at home and down here in Greenville. Been raining quite a bit over the past 40 months we have been down here and only 9 more to go after September. Euro has done well lately but I believe there will be enough push of moisture to have rain this weekend.

Hi Tim,

How are your grandchildren doing?

Hey Eric, thanks for asking. Everyone in the family got Covid except for my wife who has been down here and of course myself. My son got the worse case but when you are working 80 hours a week and in a hospital setting you can expect that to happen. Hope everyone in your family is doing well and hopefully the booster shots will be out in the next month or so just like the flu shot that I get every year. Again getting the vaccine is everyone's free will and not promoting the vaccine but we have decided in this family that is the best way to go.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:02 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:57 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:36 pm Good Afternoon and another lovely lol day here in Greenville. Hear a little thunder and hot and humid. Concerning the weekend and I believe going to be wet at home and down here in Greenville. Been raining quite a bit over the past 40 months we have been down here and only 9 more to go after September. Euro has done well lately but I believe there will be enough push of moisture to have rain this weekend.

Hi Tim,

How are your grandchildren doing?

Hey Eric, thanks for asking. Everyone in the family got Covid except for my wife who has been down here and of course myself. My son got the worse case but when you are working 80 hours a week and in a hospital setting you can expect that to happen. Hope everyone in your family is doing well and hopefully the booster shots will be out in the next month or so just like the flu shot that I get every year. Again getting the vaccine is everyone's free will and not promoting the vaccine but we have decided in this family that is the best way to go.

Thankful that they are on the rebound bro and that you and your wife are well. My folks and I are doing well.

We'll be getting a flu shot and probably will wait until Oct to see how this year's early fall season goes re regular influenza.

Currently 77 here in my G'ville.

Only 78 so far at CVG today... gorgeous!

Expecting 2-5 inches this weekend down here. The only good thing is temps will be lower.

A high of 79 imby today. Look for a repeat performance tomorrow. 50s to start with some patchy dense fog and U70s for highs. Glorious sunshine! Friday a touch warmer, L80s but the same ordeal. Then humidity and scattered action Sat, becoming likely Sun afternoon lingering into at least Tues of next week. Wed too if you believe the Euro. On Mon and Tues, highs may stay in the 60s for some of you, L70s for others. Depends on how far south the upper low tracks.

Where I am going... highs in the 60s and 70s, lows in the 40s and 50s. Gorgeous to begin the trip with small rain chances Fri and Sat towards the end of the trip. Overall for pre fishing stable weather. Fishing should be very good!

A gorgeous low of 57 here, 58 CVG. Another beauty today and a bit warmer tomorrow. I am lowering POPS on Sat now to 30-40% coverage. Some of you will remain dry. Still likely esp Sun afternoon and lingering POPS as we roll into next week with U60s to L70s Mon and Tues. A taste of fall coming...

Well enjoy the next 2 days as rain and probably a decent amount is on the way. The last several systems have seen quite the spread in rainfall amounts in a small area. Still trying to figure this system out and expect rain to increase from south to north on Saturday as a low from the GOM moves this way. After the first wave of moisture moves out a break is very possible later Saturday and early Sunday. Then the upper low west of us sort of loses it intensity but a rather strong cold front will be to the west and the two combined could lead to a longer period of rain Sunday into Monday. As we have seen with the past several systems it is very hard to put amounts in the forecast but I will try once again lol. I believe 1-2 inches seems likely for most locations but with tropical moisture involved and the slow movement some places with and extended period of rain could get more in a short period of time. This is a forecast that can have many changes once the systems get going but I would expect some rainy periods this weekend but also some dry times thrown in.

I am going a tad lower on rainfall amounts... an inch or less for most people. This is because we'll be dealing with showers more and less in the way of t-storms. Some t-storms yes, but not like the last several systems. The upper low will cause more of a showery pattern with light to moderate rains more so then heavy heavy soaking tropical rains.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 8:05 am I am going a tad lower on rainfall amounts... an inch or less for most people. This is because we'll be dealing with showers more and less in the way of t-storms. Some t-storms yes, but not like the last several systems. The upper low will cause more of a showery pattern with light to moderate rains more so then heavy heavy soaking tropical rains.

Good Morning Les and this may be the first time we have been somewhat different on the forecast in many weeks. I believe the first slug of moisture is enough to give most folks .5-1 inch and then add to that the rain later Sunday into Monday. I believe models tend to underplay tropical moisture so I tend to go higher especially since you are getting tropical moisture on top of some cooler air left over this week. So Les when we differ on forecasts it seems more times than not somewhere in the middle is the correct forecast lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 8:10 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 08, 2022 8:05 am I am going a tad lower on rainfall amounts... an inch or less for most people. This is because we'll be dealing with showers more and less in the way of t-storms. Some t-storms yes, but not like the last several systems. The upper low will cause more of a showery pattern with light to moderate rains more so then heavy heavy soaking tropical rains.

Good Morning Les and this may be the first time we have been somewhat different on the forecast in many weeks. I believe the first slug of moisture is enough to give most folks .5-1 inch and then add to that the rain later Sunday into Monday. I believe models tend to underplay tropical moisture so I tend to go higher especially since you are getting tropical moisture on top of some cooler air left over this week. So Les when we differ on forecasts it seems more times than not somewhere in the middle is the correct forecast lol.

LOL! Yeah... I've also lowered pops on Sat due to the Euro (IMO being correct) with the slower arrival of this system and slower exit. May see a shower or two into Wed of next week as well. Sunday afternoon and evening appears to be the highest chances in my mind.