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Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue May 03, 2022 9:42 pm
by cloudy72
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 7:34 pm
So much for not making a thread for this system eh?
The front is coming into the region now. Severe threat is low now. The line from about Dayton on north is still strong looking so it needs to be watched but for everyone else, it is much weaker and more scattered.
We can almost put this system to bed. The front sinks south for a cloudy and cooler day tomorrow in the low to mid 60s. Then the front comes back north as a warm front Thurs. Rain is likely Thurs night, Fri, Fri night and into Sat as the upper low comes right thru the area. I'm not concerned with a severe threat here but with most folks getting 1-2" of rain today, we'll have to see if any localized flooding issues develop with an additional inch possible or more coming with the next multiday event.
Hopefully... a dry and pleasant Mother's Day in the 70s. 80s return early next week
That’s the key - no thread means more action
0.99” total here.
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 6:27 am
by tron777
Good morning all and It looks like the SPC has added a marginal risk for Fri now so we'll have to watch the position of the warm front in the afternoon. Otherwise, wet weather returns Thurs afternoon thru the day on Sat. Ugh...
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 6:58 am
by tron777
I think we'll see a summer preview next week with widespread 80s. Could even see mid 80s plus across KY. Locations as close as LOU could get close to 90 degrees. Our upper low on Sat looks to stall off the SE Coast next week so it'll keep a big ridge in place here and a trough with the cooler air over the West. I think the pattern breaks down and we're back to garbage again around mid month, but a break in the storminess and some summertime warmth for a few days is looking more and more likely as time goes on.
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 8:08 am
by tron777
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 8:30 am
by Bgoney
LaNina and the trade winds roll on. The ONI went down to -1.0C for FMA. This is the 3rd time in the last 20 La Ninas that the Feb-Apr ONI is cooler than the Jan-Mar ONI.
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Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 8:50 am
by tron777
Thanks Bgoney for the update. I see no changes to what we've already talked about in terms of La Nina. It's effects TBD though since it is a triple dip Nina and we haven't seen too many of those. Still not seeing the MJO coming out of the neutral circle either. We roll on with the same ole, same ole pattern wise. I think the upcoming "heat" for next week is temporary and still going with a below normal temp regime again for the mid month period. If correct, we could see it last into late May as well but not ready to fully commit to that just yet.
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 8:53 am
by tron777
Clouds will rule today per the latest visible shot... Going to be hard to see temps get too high past 60 IMO. Low 60s I can see but that's probably going to be it. Some of you will stay in the 50s today esp northern posters.
1kmv.gif
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 10:53 am
by winterstormjoe
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 8:53 am
Clouds will rule today per the latest visible shot... Going to be hard to see temps get too high past 60 IMO. Low 60s I can see but that's probably going to be it. Some of you will stay in the 50s today esp northern posters.
1kmv.gif
Les, I just wish that the models are wrong for Saturday as I have outdoor plans that afternoon. I hope we at least see some peaks of sun?
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 10:57 am
by tron777
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 10:53 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 8:53 am
Clouds will rule today per the latest visible shot... Going to be hard to see temps get too high past 60 IMO. Low 60s I can see but that's probably going to be it. Some of you will stay in the 50s today esp northern posters.
1kmv.gif
Les, I just wish that the models are wrong for Saturday as I have outdoor plans that afternoon. I hope we at least see some peaks of sun?
I have plans too! Wanted to mushroom hunt one last time before the heat next week comes and the under growth explodes and takes over.
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 2:46 pm
by tron777
GFS is still faster then the Euro for the rain exiting on Sat. If the Euro is right we'll see on and off light showers / drizzle for most of Sat. If the GFS is right, we may eek out a dry Sat afternoon. Unfortunately, I'm going slower. Have to. It fits the pattern and overall trends.
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 04, 2022 8:12 pm
by tron777
May The Force be With You! May The 4th Be With You! Stars Wars Day or whatever it's called. I believe it started in 1994.
funny stuff! Anyway, good evening folks! A quick post here tonight. Rain and storms still likely Thurs night, Fri, Fri night and a light rain and drizzly showers on Sat. I see no changes on this. Sigh...
We do see an improving Mother's Day with the heat coming next week. Middle 80s and maybe U80s by mid week????
Speaking of an early warm spell... Don't forget to enter the 90 degree day contest. May 90 degree days do not count in our contest should one occur. But come June 1st they do. So you've got a few weeks to think about how you think the summer may go. Good luck to all, thanks!
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 5:05 am
by Trevor
Pretty bad bust by the guys and gals down at SPC. Yikes lol.
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 6:24 am
by tron777
Yikes Trev, I'd say
For us... more gloomy skies today with rain coming back by the evening commute. A marginal risk for severe wx is out for everyone Fri afternoon as a warm front pushes in. Then we're on the backside of the low on Sat. Mother's Day is improving then summer hits us next week on into next weekend. Could see 5 days plus in a row in the 80s.
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 8:09 am
by tron777
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 9:10 am
by cloudy72
3km NAM brings up the potential for some flash flood issues later Friday esp in the Cincy metro area and along 71 corridor. Need to watch this scenario.
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 9:16 am
by tron777
It's going to be interesting to see where the warm front stalls Fri afternoon... for severe and hvy rain potential. We should be close to both zones.
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 9:43 am
by tron777
Sunshine is close yet so far away...
1kmv.gif
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 9:55 am
by tpweather
Exactly Les, I still have the low clouds at my house.Hopefully at least able to get an hour or two of sunshine before the clouds return this afternoon. So far about 1 1/3 inches of rain since last Saturday. I was calling for 1-2 inches through Mother's Day. My guess is that forecast will more than likely not work as the chances of staying below .67 over the next two days is slim. Good to see the rain though as we get rather toasty next week. No doubt temps will probably be in the mid 80's but the dew points near 70 is my guess so its going to feel like a greenhouse.
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 10:20 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 9:55 am
Exactly Les, I still have the low clouds at my house.Hopefully at least able to get an hour or two of sunshine before the clouds return this afternoon. So far about 1 1/3 inches of rain since last Saturday. I was calling for 1-2 inches through Mother's Day. My guess is that forecast will more than likely not work as the chances of staying below .67 over the next two days is slim. Good to see the rain though as we get rather toasty next week. No doubt temps will probably be in the mid 80's but the dew points near 70 is my guess so its going to feel like a greenhouse.
Tim, if the position of the high is over New England that we'd get an Easterly flow off the Apps for lower dews and more comfy air. It depends on where the center of the high is for our wind direction and flow.
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 10:31 am
by tron777
It's trying to brighten up here some now.
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 10:44 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 10:20 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 9:55 am
Exactly Les, I still have the low clouds at my house.Hopefully at least able to get an hour or two of sunshine before the clouds return this afternoon. So far about 1 1/3 inches of rain since last Saturday. I was calling for 1-2 inches through Mother's Day. My guess is that forecast will more than likely not work as the chances of staying below .67 over the next two days is slim. Good to see the rain though as we get rather toasty next week. No doubt temps will probably be in the mid 80's but the dew points near 70 is my guess so its going to feel like a greenhouse.
Tim, if the position of the high is over New England that we'd get an Easterly flow off the Apps for lower dews and more comfy air. It depends on where the center of the high is for our wind direction and flow.
No doubt Les and where does the system over the next two days stall over the Atlantic. Temperature should be okay but how high will those dew points be locally. If we get a more southerly flow then those dew points will be higher but like you mentioned if the flow off the Apps can stay around a few days then yes dew points more likely in the lower 60's. Either way a taste of summer and though not a big summer lover I will gladly take several summer like days next week.
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 10:48 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 10:44 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 10:20 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 9:55 am
Exactly Les, I still have the low clouds at my house.Hopefully at least able to get an hour or two of sunshine before the clouds return this afternoon. So far about 1 1/3 inches of rain since last Saturday. I was calling for 1-2 inches through Mother's Day. My guess is that forecast will more than likely not work as the chances of staying below .67 over the next two days is slim. Good to see the rain though as we get rather toasty next week. No doubt temps will probably be in the mid 80's but the dew points near 70 is my guess so its going to feel like a greenhouse.
Tim, if the position of the high is over New England that we'd get an Easterly flow off the Apps for lower dews and more comfy air. It depends on where the center of the high is for our wind direction and flow.
No doubt Les and where does the system over the next two days stall over the Atlantic. Temperature should be okay but how high will those dew points be locally. If we get a more southerly flow then those dew points will be higher but like you mentioned if the flow off the Apps can stay around a few days then yes dew points more likely in the lower 60's. Either way a taste of summer and though not a big summer lover I will gladly take several summer like days next week.
I'm looking forward to it also to help my new bean seeds to sprout.
Then bring back more normal temps.
I'd say a week of 80s is doable attm though so a decent stretch.
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 11:20 am
by Sargent51
HBD Les!
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 11:30 am
by tron777
Sargent51 wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 11:20 amHBD Les!
Thank you Sir!
Re: May 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 12:42 pm
by snowbo
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 11:30 am
Sargent51 wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 11:20 amHBD Les!
Thank you Sir!
Oh my...is someone having a birthday? If so, happy birthday Les and thanks for all you do!!