April 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Thanks Les and it looks like a very busy period heading this way and noticed Paducah had over 2 inches of rainfall last night so heavy rain over the next 36 hours is likely but how much will depend on training of the storms. Always can get localized flooding with any storm but since it has been rather dry streams should be okay but again if you get in on a 3-4 window of heavy rainfall streams can even overflow. Early next week and maybe snow in the picture.

[tron777]

Thanks Les and it looks like a very busy period heading this way and noticed Paducah had over 2 inches of rainfall last night so heavy rain over the next 36 hours is likely but how much will depend on training of the storms. Always can get localized flooding with any storm but since it has been rather dry streams should be okay but again if you get in on a 3-4 window of heavy rainfall streams can even overflow. Early next week and maybe snow in the picture.

We've had rain chances since you've been gone, but nothing particularly heavy or impressive. Just enough to green things up. Lawn is looking nice and lush after the first mowing of the season on Sunday.

[MVWxObserver]

Great to see you back, Tim!

I watched some of the Findlay Market Redlegs parade earlier. Great to see Ma Nature cooperating today for both the parade and home opener as Tyler Mahle takes the mound at 4:10.

Glad the guys are having a 12:35 Business Day Special on Wed and at least will avoid a squall line? via the 8-11 o'clock window. They still may get delayed due to convective activity during the afternoon hours.

Currently 66 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 68 later.

[tron777]

Euro still wants to get a cut off low in here Mon and Tues of next week with mixed rain and snow possible. Lovely...

[tron777]

I hit 70 today. Still holding at 68. Won't drop out of the 60s tonight and a humid day tomorrow.

[MVWxObserver]

I meant to add earlier today that my gauge picked up .40" from Mon.

Currently 63 here in G'ville after topping out at 66.

[tron777]

The thing I like about next week is the cut off low scenario looks to be going away and the more progressive idea is winning out. So we have our current system we are tracking in the other thread. A cool but dry Easter. Sunday night and Monday is the next weaker front, for early next week. Then we get another one around Wed or Wed night. I am expecting a warming trend towards the end of next week and next weekend.

[MVWxObserver]

61 here in G'ville with light drizzle and a DP of 61.

Not sure about reaching ILN's progged 67 for up this way unless more peaks of sun and clouds break up.

[tron777]

61 here in G'ville with light drizzle and a DP of 61.

Not sure about reaching ILN's progged 67 for up this way unless more peaks of sun and clouds break up.

We hit 69 before this last round of light rain has dropped us back to 65

[MVWxObserver]

61 here in G'ville with light drizzle and a DP of 61.

Not sure about reaching ILN's progged 67 for up this way unless more peaks of sun and clouds break up.

We hit 69 before this last round of light rain has dropped us back to 65

I'm now at 63 with a DP of 63. Surely but slowly.

[cloudy72]

For Eric and our northern posters...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
341 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022

OHZ026-034-035-042>044-141600-
/O.NEW.KILN.WI.Y.0006.220414T1600Z-220415T0000Z/
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Including the cities of Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater,
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, and Bellefontaine
341 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Hardin, Mercer, Auglaize, Darke, Shelby and Logan
Counties.

* WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

[tron777]

Good morning! A cooler but a calmer day ahead. Wind won't be so bad down here as we are closer to the high building in over the TN Valley. North of I-70 is closer to the departing low so a tighter pressure gradient and thus stronger winds. A couple of weak systems keeping us cool... the first of which moves in Fri night and early Sat with a small rain chance. 0.10" or less expected. Easter is fine. Cold but dry. Frost possible in the morning with low and mid 50s in the afternoon. Some sun expected. Then for Sun night and Mon with another weak frontal passage.

Then another system tries to push in by Wed night and Thurs but fails thanks to a building ridge for Fri and next weekend. Should see a nice warm up and improving wx by then.

[cloudy72]

Severe weather lovers will be taking a break for the next week and half looks like - I don't see any widespread severe potential until possibly the end of April.

[tron777]

Severe weather lovers will be taking a break for the next week and half looks like - I don't see any widespread severe potential until possibly the end of April.

If the ENS solutions are correct and we see the ridge building in late next week with the next trough dumping into the West, we would get severe wx chances again post 4/24 would be my early guess.

[tron777]

Breezy out there this afternoon but a beautiful cobalt blue sky! 60ish or so ought to do it for the day. Tomorrow also windy but warm 65 to 70. Next weak front comes in early Sat morning then again Sun night and Mon. Still expecting a dry but cool Easter in the 50s.

[tron777]

I still color eggs for Easter!

16499739255855504169668742551921.jpg

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up 1.40" from Wed / Wed night for a combo of 1.80" since Mon.

Had our lawn mowed for the 1st time this season on Thurs.

[MVWxObserver]

I still color eggs for Easter!


16499739255855504169668742551921.jpg

Hi Les,

I'll always have fun memories of coloring eggs with those Paas kits with my sister and cousins at my maternal grandmother's house in Indiana. Also colored them with my niece and nephew in NC when they were the ages of Harper, Colton and Cooper. Sometimes we'd take a crayon and print names of our cousins i.e. on the eggs before coloring them at Grandma's. Great times indeed!

Currently 45 here in G'ville and progged for around 40 Good Fri morning. Then a high around 64 for that afternoon.

[tron777]

I still color eggs for Easter!


16499739255855504169668742551921.jpg

Hi Les,

I'll always have fun memories of coloring eggs with those Paas kits with my sister and cousins at my maternal grandmother's house in Indiana. Also colored them with my niece and nephew in NC when they were the ages of Harper, Colton and Cooper. Sometimes we'd take a crayon and print names of our cousins i.e. on the eggs before coloring them at Grandma's. Great times indeed!

Currently 45 here in G'ville and progged for around 40 Good Fri morning. Then a high around 64 for that afternoon.

Eric, the Paas kits are still my favorite and the only brand I ever use. Tried the other ones and they just aren't that good. Tried some of the newer Paas kits, and I like the old school tablets with the dye in a vinegar and hot water combo. Works great every time!

[tron777]

More rain coming in tonight ending tomorrow morning. Now expecting a bit more rain up to 0.20" is now possible. Still looking cool but dry for Easter Sunday!

[tron777]

For next week... not much change. Still looking at a weak front Sun night and Monday then another one Wed night into Thurs. After that, we should get into a nice warming trend and more pleasant weather.

[Bgoney]

CPC Enso update, no surprises , LaNina rolls on....and on.....and on......



Synopsis: La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the fall.

During March 2022, La Niña continued with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the past week, all of the Niño index regions were between -0.7°C and -1.1°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) decreased and were negative the entire month [Fig. 3] due to the expansion of below-average temperatures from the surface to 200 meters depth in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed across the western and central Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies remained over the east-central Pacific. Suppressed convection remained significant around the Date Line and was enhanced over the Philippines and Southeast Asia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña.

[tron777]

CPC Enso update, no surprises , LaNina rolls on....and on.....and on......



Synopsis: La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the fall.

During March 2022, La Niña continued with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the past week, all of the Niño index regions were between -0.7°C and -1.1°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) decreased and were negative the entire month [Fig. 3] due to the expansion of below-average temperatures from the surface to 200 meters depth in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed across the western and central Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies remained over the east-central Pacific. Suppressed convection remained significant around the Date Line and was enhanced over the Philippines and Southeast Asia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña.

Every time the models try and weaken this ENSO event, the Nina says, "Hold my beer" and then has another cooling episode. I fully expect the Nina to hang on thru the summer and into the Fall. Can't speak past that yet.

[tron777]

A windy 69 at CVG with S winds gusting to 30 mph. Clouds are beginning to move in with rain over MO and ILL headed in our direction for tonight into tomorrow morning leaving us with a cool Sat afternoon and Easter Sunday. Sunshine during that period is expected. Look for possible frost Sun morning as well.

[tron777]

12Z Euro for next week has the next system Sun night and Monday with a half inch of rain for CVG. Then a weak system Thurs as warmer air begins to win over the pattern. Fri, Sat, and Sun look warm and dry per this solution. We like it, we like it! Weather looks nice for the tournament on Lake Erie also.