Absolute Vorticity

https://www.whio.com/news/trending/6-ki ... 2GIMXJ7NY/

4 adults and 2 children dead from tornado near Des Moines.

Some others injured.

Only 0.05” rain overnight - sure sounded like a lot more lol

I heard some thunder about 4am and picked up 0.24" with the first round of rain. CVG picked up 0.35"

Good Morning and a busy 30 hours or so coming up. The first boundary has stalled south of the area but already seeing a build up of showers in western Kentucky. This boundary will be a focus point for showers and thundershowers today and if you are in the path a decent amount of rain is possible. This boundary will lift north as the day goes on and will stall out probably just north of the local area. Then we wait for the system coming in from the southwest. The Nam as always been the odd man out keeping the low pressure much further north and west. Well the latest run this morning is moving it further south and not quite as far south as the Euro but this tells me its readjusting that path. This also tells me the heaviest rains are probably going to be in southern and central Indiana and southern Ohio and probably northern Kentucky. There will be a steadier rain overnight but also a squall line that should form as well Monday morning to add more heavy rains. Still going with 1-2 inches for the both events but leaning on the heavier side for totals. Will somebody get over 3 inches and very possible if you are in the correct spot. Widespread flooding looks unlikely but the normal streams will cause some problems. Will check on the extended later but no doubt a really decent cold shot coming next weekend and will that be the last cold shot that would give us a chance for snow?

Great post TIm, in the extended i think the rest of March is setting up for more shots of cold . Next weekend for sure, then a warm up before another cold spell to follow. We talked about how the MJO is essentially blocked atm from entering or emerging into the PAC from a nearly basin wide of Easterlies. Now the latest forecast is showing it emerging in about the only area available , a redo of an Indian ocean treck , which still favor cold spells for the lower 48. If the NAO were Neg , our snow chances with these cold shots I think would be much higher, but even still the chance will be there. So in short , any extended warmth in March doesn't look to happen

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Mar 06, 2022 9:40 am Great post TIm, in the extended i think the rest of March is setting up for more shots of cold . Next weekend for sure, then a warm up before another cold spell to follow. We talked about how the MJO is essentially blocked atm from entering or emerging into the PAC from a nearly basin wide of Easterlies. Now the latest forecast is showing it emerging in about the only area available , a redo of an Indian ocean treck , which still favor cold spells for the lower 48. If the NAO were Neg , our snow chances with these cold shots I think would be much higher, but even still the chance will be there. So in short , any extended warmth in March doesn't look to happen

Hey Bgoney,great post as well. With a little uptick of the La Nina this has also held the cold in western and central Canada where it has been all season long. Even though days are getting longer still tons of snow cover up there and cold air masses can still form rather easily. Matter of fact next weekend expect some below zero readings in the great lakes so a nice shot of cold. The good thing this time of year is cold shots usually only last a few days and when the high pressure moves off to the east we can warm rather quickly. I agree 100p/c about the nao and looks like the best we get is a neutral showing and a negative Nao would have been perfect for a bigger storm. My though process was mid-March we would turn mild and stay mild but of course mother nature had other ideals.

Good morning guys and nice posts from the both of you. I think we'll be okay with this next system in terms of severe wx. Some of the same folks look to be under the gun that got hit back in December so West KY down into AR needs to pay attention. For us, more of a heavy rain event as we've been expecting for several days now.

Then in the extended, we are still watching a rain to snow scenario for Fri and Fri night. Not sure if the secondary low blows up for Sat or if that happens east of us over the Mid Atl area for a nice snow there. Something to keep our eye on for sure. Then around the 20th, our next shot of cold air looks to be waiting in the wings for another rain to snow situation.

On the 12Z GFS today, it's too bad we don't have a -NAO as Bgoney stated earlier. We'd have a big snow storm on our hands Fri night into Sat if we could get that phasing to occur 12 hours or whatever sooner. Need that trough to slow down and dig a bit more. Hard without a -NAO to slow the jet down. I'm still watching it and the set up still interests me. Not over yet.

12Z CMC has the opposite issue. It blows up too quickly so rain changing to light snow in the colder air late Fri night into Sat morning.

I maybe wrong on the severe wx part now.... A slight risk of severe wx from the SPC for the area tonight. CAPE of 1000 J/kg now over the area with tons of bulk shear. Strong winds are the main hazards tonight. Visible shows CU popping north of the area ahead of the next wave.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 06, 2022 1:22 pm I maybe wrong on the severe wx part now.... A slight risk of severe wx from the SPC for the area tonight. CAPE of 1000 J/kg now over the area with tons of bulk shear. Strong winds are the main hazards tonight. Visible shows CU popping north of the area ahead of the next wave.

Hey Les and I thought the same thing especially what we saw yesterday out in Iowa. Starting to get into severe season and of course the current pattern is one that can ramp up storms. Not widespread but believe you should not rule out the chance of some severe weather.

For Fri night into Sat... the Euro is also like the CMC... low is strong and tracks just a hair SE of us.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Mar 06, 2022 1:29 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 06, 2022 1:22 pm I maybe wrong on the severe wx part now.... A slight risk of severe wx from the SPC for the area tonight. CAPE of 1000 J/kg now over the area with tons of bulk shear. Strong winds are the main hazards tonight. Visible shows CU popping north of the area ahead of the next wave.

Hey Les and I thought the same thing especially what we saw yesterday out in Iowa. Starting to get into severe season and of course the current pattern is one that can ramp up storms. Not widespread but believe you should not rule out the chance of some severe weather.

Yeah... could be an isolated strong wind gust with some of these tonight. Better risk is still SW of us though IMO.

My gauge picked up .60" from last night.

Currently 61 here in G'ville with a gust of 28 mph and progged for 64 later this afternoon.

No need for Ma Nature to rush a warm pattern this year for early Spring due to the ridiculous MLB lockout i.e.

My high for the day was 70 at 3 am in the morning. 66 currently. Nice little t-storm north of Hamilton in Butler Co. Nothing severe at this time. Bulk of the action is south of Cincy where the front has stalled over Central KY.

TOR Watch likely to be issued over Northern AR, SE MO and extreme Western TN.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0207.html

CVG's dewpoint is not 34. Mine is at 60. Temp is 67 CVG as of 2pm had 66 so their temp is right. But their dewpoint reading is totally wrong today.

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69 CVG, 68 here.

Looks like we've got a broken line of storms developing along the I-71 corridor. Nothing severe yet but looks to get noisy and gusty in a few areas.

that's a lot of rain!

Angelika wrote: ↑Sun Mar 06, 2022 10:38 pm that's a lot of rain!

It sure is. It's gonna be a busy night

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Approaching the 2" mark here. Had some thunder overnight but nothing too noteworthy. Temp down to 46.