Absolute Vorticity

It's here. Pup just had me out and sleet mixed with sprinkles. Sticking to deck.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:18 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:14 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:13 pm 18Z Euro has 0.07" tomorrow morning with 29-30 degree surface temps. A break, then the rest is plain rain and not a big deal.

Want to trade, bro?

No! I've had enough pingers and frz rainers. I want snow lol Want to trade with my cousin in Mich

I hear ya, bro!

Freezing rain at 4:30 am when I let the dogs out along Preble/Butler Co line

Round one arrived with A glaze of ice here also, and elevated surfaces as expected with numerous accidents on bridges and overpasses. Tim , your worst fears have come true with accidents everywhere. Round 2 coming late afternoon . This evening Will move up the rain line from along the river to a couple more rows of counties to the north and ending tomorrow morning with another glaze. Counties Closer to I70 .10"-.20" ice accretion still possible

Good morning all and there are lots of road closures and traffic accidents this morning... be careful all! The precip is done for the most part and weakening as it lifts north. Icy spots this afternoon and evening for our NW counties, plain rain for everyone else. Another 0.50"+ of rain yet to come.

Street looks fine here. Cars have a thin glaze on them, but that's it. I guess it just depends on where you are as conditions will vary across the area.

Roads weren't even wet out my way

Looks like we had some sleet or something here this morning.

Latest 11z HRRR - you can see the cold nose finger eroding at CVG around 22z (5pm).


Here is DAY and CMH:

Awesome maps Mike... thanks for sharing those. We need the precip to move in as quickly as possible while the cold is still here, but the opposite is what looks to be happening with this system. Next wave down in TX and OK starting to get is act together and it's going to be a while before precip re-starts again. I'd say after 2pm for CVG and by then, we should be at or above freezing.

Good Morning and at my house roads are spotty with anything on them at all. Isolated last night with the ice but its so tricky and probably worse than a 4 inch snowfall because folks just believe the surface is wet. Heading for today's system and locally it looks like rainfall for the majority of the system. Models have come in a little further northwest with the surface low later today. This does two things and keeps us mainly rain but also the rain may be a tad heavier than expected. So 36 and rain looks like a good bet later today. Still believe the Indy to Toledo area is in for a round of ice. Then northwest of there expect ice changing to snow but not a huge amount though with the overnight runs somebody could still get near 6 inches.

31 now at CVG so we are slowly inching up there out of the danger zone.

Up to 32 here

12z NAM has about an inch of QPF at CVG for later today into tomorrow morning. All liquid.

12Z GFS offers up 3/4" of rain at CVG.

34 here... so everything at this point will be plain rain down this way. What a shame...

36 here LOL

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:14 pm36 here LOL

Ewww! I thought you would at least start as sleet / frz rain. This last wave might be rain for everyone at this rate!

Check out Arkansas:

At 1116 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Solo, or 24 miles north of Russellville, moving northeast at 75 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail and heavy freezing rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Heavy freezing
rain will produce additional ice accumulation.

New MD to our west in IN/IL:


Mesoscale Discussion 0184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Illinois and Indiana

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 241815Z - 242145Z

SUMMARY...Showers and a few thunderstorms will overspread much of
the region through 3-5 PM CST, accompanied by a mix of wintry
precipitation. This is expected to include periods of heavy sleet
and snow, with snow rates occasionally in excess of 1 inch per hour
impacting areas as far south as the Interstate 70 corridor.

DISCUSSION...An area of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is
rapidly spreading across and northeast of the Ozark Plateau
vicinity, and forecast to continue northeastward into and through
areas either side of the Interstate 70 corridor of Illinois and
Indiana through 21-23Z. The lift is being supported by strong warm
advection, near the 50-60 kt core of stronger flow in the 850-700 mb
layer (associated with a strong jet emanating from the southern
Great Plains), beneath a zone of enhanced difluence and divergence,
near the inflection between an approaching upstream mid-level trough
and downstream ridging.

Steepening mid-level lapse rates (aided by the warming) and moisture
return above a cold and stable, sub-freezing boundary-layer appear
to be contributing to most unstable CAPE on the order of 250+ J/kg.
This has contributed to considerable thunderstorm development, with
expanding cold downstream cloud tops and precipitation.

Near, and particularly south of, the Interstate 70 corridor, a
residual "warm nose" in the 850-700 mb layer appears likely to allow
for sufficient melting for precipitation to fall as a mix of
freezing rain and sleet, with sleet perhaps more prominent in
heavier convective cores. Closer to and north of Interstate 70,
precipitation may initially be mostly in the form of sleet.
However, guidance suggests that cooling of the warm nose, coincident
with lift becoming maximized in the the dendritic growth zone above,
may support a changeover to heavy snow. It appears that this could
include a period with rates occasionally exceeding 1 inch per hour,
as far south as Interstate 70.

36 degrees with a cold rain closing in on the area.

35 / 30 with light rain beginning here...

34 here

I can positively report the dreaded 35 degree rain in Milford as I leave work. Ugh! Bring on Spring!!

Raining now and 32 here. I second that , bring on spring