Absolute Vorticity

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 3:28 pm While a high-impact winter storm is becoming increasingly likely midweek, attention at the moment is on BENGAS NATION! Who Dey! Weather will return post game

You never know when I'll throw a post in here. WHO DEY! 1.2" of rain on Wed from the 18 Z NAM. Yikes... what an ugly day!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 3:39 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 3:28 pm While a high-impact winter storm is becoming increasingly likely midweek, attention at the moment is on BENGAS NATION! Who Dey! Weather will return post game

You never know when I'll throw a post in here. WHO DEY! 1.2" of rain on Wed from the 18 Z NAM. Yikes... what an ugly day!

Yessir. I attached the last image of the 18z NAM model. Similar to earlier runs, there is so much moisture back to the southwest as thermals begin to cool off. Specifically over Oklahoma. Extrapolate that east/northeast from there and that run screams major ice potential over the Cincy metro.

WPC Probs for 4" plus of snow and a tenth of an inch plus of ice accumulation.

@Bgoney mentioned it earlier…the NAM in future runs will likely spit out some absurd freezing rain amounts.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 3:53 pm WPC Probs for 4" plus of snow and a tenth of an inch plus of ice accumulation.


WPC.jpg

A fairly significant shift south from their thinking yesterday.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 3:54 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 3:53 pm WPC Probs for 4" plus of snow and a tenth of an inch plus of ice accumulation.


WPC.jpg

A fairly significant shift south from their thinking yesterday.

It is south of the guidance from today for sure. Beats me...

Hi Les and crew! Good to be back. Had some health issues, thought I would stop by seeing there’s a great winter storm brewing for us up north!

I’ll keep popping in to see what you guys are predicting for this storm!

Brian

Blogsdon wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 4:06 pm Hi Les and crew! Good to be back. Had some health issues, thought I would stop by seeing there’s a great winter storm brewing for us up north!

I’ll keep popping in to see what you guys are predicting for this storm!

Brian

Brian!!! Welcome back! Glad you found us. We are covering this storm for sure very closely! Looks like a fun next few weeks too for us all.

Hola Brian! Good to see ya.

18Z RGEM still on the cold side bringing in freezing rain to the Metro after midnight Wed night.

A close up view...

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 4:25 pm 18Z RGEM still on the cold side bringing in freezing rain to the Metro after midnight Wed night.


RGEM.png

Not a good situation on that run from an impact standpoint. As several of us discussed earlier today (Tim in particular), the lull modeled would be bad news. Break in the precip as thermals cool (red area). Then that slug of moisture coming out of TX/OK (purple area) would surely be frozen here…more than likely freezing rain.

GFS running now, let's see what we got.

From ILN

For anyone just now tuning in: yes…a high-impact winter storm is likely across the Ohio Valley during the middle and end of the upcoming workweek. Wed PM-Thu is the primary focus point. Heavy rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow are all on the table. Hang tight…this is one of those storms that you want to be “in the know” about.

Ice is the current concern for most of the area at the moment, esp on Thursday.

Afternoon AFD from the boys:

Dry weather can be expected Tuesday as high pressure moves east.
That will change dramatically by Wednesday thanks to a slow moving
cold front forming nearly parallel to a southwest upper flow. Fed by
a long fetched plume of deep moisture, precipitation beginning as
rain is forecast to push in from the northwest. As the cold front
sags southeast and gusty surface winds shift to north during
Wednesday, precipitation should change to snow across West Central
Ohio. With the front continuing to track southeast, snow, freezing
rain and sleet could reach I-71 by Thursday morning, while rain
persists in the far southeast. Model uncertainty at this point is
still quite evident, leading to low confidence in position, amount
and type of precipitation. The event should begin to wind down
Thursday night as the front passes through the ILN area, bringing an
end to steady accumulating precipitation. During this prolonged
event, significant snow and ice accumulations are possible,
especially along and north of I-71. The potential for hazardous
weather will continue to be mentioned in the HWO, until possible
headlines are issued when conditions can be forecast more precisely.
Models indicate little to no measurable precip Friday afternoon
through Sunday under high pressure.

Brian!!! Welcome back! Glad you found us. We are covering this storm for sure very closely! Looks like a fun next few weeks too for us

Thank you good to be back!

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 4:16 pm Hola Brian! Good to see ya.

Thanks Trevor!

18Z GFS continuing the north trend a bit more from 12Z. Nasty icing N Cincy burbs to I-70. Mainly snow north of there. CVG / Downtown and NKY do not changeover to rain until Thurs late afternoon.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 5:09 pm 18Z GFS continuing the north trend a bit more from 12Z. Nasty icing N Cincy burbs to I-70. Mainly snow north of there. CVG / Downtown and NKY do not changeover to rain until Thurs late afternoon.

You mean changeover to ice.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 5:10 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 5:09 pm 18Z GFS continuing the north trend a bit more from 12Z. Nasty icing N Cincy burbs to I-70. Mainly snow north of there. CVG / Downtown and NKY do not changeover to rain until Thurs late afternoon.

You mean changeover to ice.

Yes, thanks!

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 4:16 pm Hola Brian! Good to see ya.

Thanks Trevor!

18Z GEFS Snow - N IN NW OH and S Mich getting destroyed.