Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 7:41 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 7:31 pm

MJSun wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:39 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:11 pm Les,

For the 13th - 15th period I'm going to be rooting for a big dog white gold Tri-state Special, bro!

North of 70 has theirs this time and its only fair for a fair trade off, I'd even take a sharp cutoff in exchange, for you guys and gals down that way to get a big dog King Midas WHITE GOLD TOUCH!!

It's time for SE Cincinnati and NKY to get theirs versus missing to the north, south, northwest, southwest.

I totally agree, Mollie!

Thank you all! Winter is not over yet!

You're quite welcome, Bro!

15 here . Been a rough 3 or 4 days for global models in regards to snow totals and now low temps for this morning in the OV. 15-25 degrees off especially GFS

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 7:26 am 15 here . Been a rough 3 or 4 days for global models in regards to snow totals and now low temps for this morning in the OV. 15-25 degrees off especially GFS

Clouds, flurries, and wind are to blame for that. Was very surprised to see that we only dropped into the mid teens when I woke up today.

12 and mood flakes here this morning. Should be much colder tonight once we lose the clouds. Then we can start the thawing process tomorrow afternoon.

Wed we had rain, sleet and snow Thurs, snow yesterday, and flurries today. Wow... what a storm!!!

From the boys:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mid level s/wv will move east across our region early this
morning. This feature will bring scattered snow showers. Colder
air filtering into the area, combined with winds of 5 to 10 mph,
will produce wind chill values between 5 below zero and 10
below zero for parts of our western CWFA. Will continue to
highlight this hazard in a Special Weather Statement. Otherwise,
Arctic high pressure will build east into the Ohio Valley this
afternoon. As the ridge axis shifts east, winds will back from
the west/northwest to a more south/southeast direction by the
end of the day. With low level moisture lingering in the CAA
pattern, clouds will persist, particularly east where diurnal
instability will be the highest. Highs will range from the upper
teens north to the mid 20s south.

The future items of interest attm are a clipper Friday and the possible system for SB Weekend. Models are off and on with these features but I don't see much occurring in our local area until then. Plenty of time to thaw out and clean up. We can relax and rest too. Our love and passion for weather is emotionally draining at times and we need to rest up and regroup and get ready for the next one!

Was finally able to de-glacierize my car. Sheesh. That was a task. Surprised the scraper held up. I was worried it was going to snap

PV update, you can stick a fork in all the predictions made that a SSW was likely at some point this winter. Streak of record strong PV currently and forecast to remain moderate to strong until its demise in spring


The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 54.8 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -14.6 m/s 2009
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 53.3 m/s 1988

DT has a new video out. the rest of February doesn't look that great but its not a disaster either. we may score in the next 2 weeks before spring takes over later this month

SNowy south central states

12Z GFS is pretty ho hum this afternoon. The clipper on Fri dives to the NE of us and the pattern is too progressive for any phasing for SB Weekend.

Good Afternoon and first of all want to thank all the hard working folks who clear the streets. This storm is a mess and one of the toughest to clean up so Thank You So Much.

No big changes yet for the extended. Les went over these earlier and a few clippers that look to stay to the north however one gets wound up later n the week and lets hope that does not happen as we need to see more heights build up for maybe a better system Super Bowl Weekend. Models will go back and forth but there is a signal that a storm forms somewhere in the gulf states. Way to early for any kind of prediction on what may happen but we are getting to the time of year where the gom opens up plus just warmer air from the southern regions and storms can get rather strong.

EU keeps SBS threat alive and well , similar to what GFS has flashed off and on , only a bit stronger for this 12z run

That's a nice set up on the Euro. We can work with that!

All timing issues...

GFS has the system dropping in from Canada Sat morning, while the Euro is a zillion times faster and we are already getting a storm together over S NM / West TX. GFS no phase. Energy stays split between the Gulf and Great Lakes. Euro phases and the surface low tracks from the Gulf up the East Side of the Apps then pivots. Transfers then the East Coast gets hit. You speed up that process by 12 hours more on the Euro and you've got a crippling blizzard here!

The German model or ICON is usually a crap model but the 12Z run does lend support to the Euro's solution as well.

18Z GFS has a S Apps event so it took a step towards the Euro. Good trends today!

Very nice

Was the Euro the model that did the best with the kitchen sink storm?

Thanks!

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 8:36 pm Was the Euro the model that did the best with the kitchen sink storm?

Thanks!

From this distance, Days 7-8, The Euro was the coldest model, GFS was warmer and CMC in the middle. Euro was probably best from way out but as we got closer, the NAM did best once we got inside of 72-84 hours with the thermals.

Still hoping that my dad can squeeze in Sat the 12th to keep a family business matter appt with his sis in Anderson, IN.

Currently 14 here in G'ville and progged for around 7 on Sun morning.

Good morning! GFS and CMC keep the waves separate still for SB Weekend and the Euro is back to blowing it up too late where the 12Z run hit us. That's really the only game in town to keep an eye on this week. Maybe some mood flakes tomorrow but I don't see any problem causing rain or snow at this point. SB Weekend is the only threat worth keeping one eye open.