Absolute Vorticity

These last two hours have been the best of the storm so far! Getting pounded!

Flightradar24, I love it when the trucks show up. They are trying to clear the runways.

The transfer looks to be happening as a new low is forming inland along the NC / SC border. That low will eventually take over, move thru the Outer Banks and head out to sea tonight.

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 8:37 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 7:40 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 7:36 am roughly 8-1/2 to 8-3/4" here so far with maybe 1/4" sleet. Had 3" exactly with round 1, another 3-1/2-3-3/4" with round 2 (wind made it a little harder to measure due to some drifting), and just got a bit under 2" overnight, that was from right after the football game on til 7:15am. Fun storm!

The back end should produce nicely esp for the Tri-state area on south. Expecting 2-4" more today for our area along with windy conditions, blowing and drifting snow. High ratio fluffy snow too.

Hopefully it will put you up to the 12 inch mark for this storm!

Add 2" more as of 10:19am! 10-1/2" for sure now, and still coming down!

What's left of the 850 Low is over SE Ohio now so it's und town for us for a while on the backside. The 500 MB low has opened up now and it's no longer a closed low and thus the energy transfer as we expected.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:20 am

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 8:37 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 7:40 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 7:36 am roughly 8-1/2 to 8-3/4" here so far with maybe 1/4" sleet. Had 3" exactly with round 1, another 3-1/2-3-3/4" with round 2 (wind made it a little harder to measure due to some drifting), and just got a bit under 2" overnight, that was from right after the football game on til 7:15am. Fun storm!

The back end should produce nicely esp for the Tri-state area on south. Expecting 2-4" more today for our area along with windy conditions, blowing and drifting snow. High ratio fluffy snow too.

Hopefully it will put you up to the 12 inch mark for this storm!

Add 2" more as of 10:19am! 10-1/2" for sure now, and still coming down!

Someone may get a foot after all Dave!

Concerning which model did the best and each had some problems but really the CMC which is usually the coldest and that part of the storm was correct. It was just colder period and this happens when a low does not get out of hand strength wise. Never a perfect model or perfect forecast in my life and just to big of an area to be correct in all areas. Btw if I hear that one station locally talks about being the most accurate again well this storm not even close and going to give Steve H. the top choice and does this guy ever age as he looks great.

Looks like about another 2-3 hours and we can wrap this storm up. No matter what happens total wise it helps me in the snowfall contest and really that is all that matters lol. I want to hold that trophy once and Les there is a trophy correct or maybe a plaque lol

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:23 am Concerning which model did the best and each had some problems but really the CMC which is usually the coldest and that part of the storm was correct. It was just colder period and this happens when a low does not get out of hand strength wise. Never a perfect model or perfect forecast in my life and just to big of an area to be correct in all areas. Btw if I hear that one station locally talks about being the most accurate again well this storm not even close and going to give Steve H. the top choice and does this guy ever age as he looks great.

If I recall, Horsey is finally going to retire in March after being on the air for 48 years. Wow what a career the man has had!

3 fresh inches in Indian hill since 7am . Total here at 9.5” heavy snow atm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:26 am Looks like about another 2-3 hours and we can wrap this storm up. No matter what happens total wise it helps me in the snowfall contest and really that is all that matters lol. I want to hold that trophy once and Les there is a trophy correct or maybe a plaque lol

LOL! I'll post a trophy pic in the contest thread on your behalf if you win!

I know there will be lots of post mortem about the models and whose forecast was best. et al. Not going to talk about that, but do think we should talk about this storm. How many times in the past have we thought we were golden on a storm, only to see the wheels come off at the last second? I always try and explain to people when they complain about forecasters that a snow storm is like this big complex machine and there are a thousand levers that all have multiple positions and all have to line up just right; if even one of those 1000 levers is off even a small amount, the whole thing doesn't work. For the first time in a very long time, all the 1000 levers worked exactly as we needed them to, from the LP staying over 1000mb to the track, to the lack of Cellular storm activity down south robbing moisture transport, to the transfer being slow and not one going up the East Coast. And the fresh cold from prior table setters, the "just enough" of a NE wind. And the folks on here did an AMAZING job of vetting all those things and pointing them out to us followers. It's what makes this forum worth its weight in gold to anyone whose interests include weather. Thanks for all the hours and days of that, AV Land!

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:26 am Looks like about another 2-3 hours and we can wrap this storm up. No matter what happens total wise it helps me in the snowfall contest and really that is all that matters lol. I want to hold that trophy once and Les there is a trophy correct or maybe a plaque lol

No trophy, but a tree will be planted in your honor. We'll make it an evergreen.

Best closing so far on the monster list had to be the Tri-State Mime School closing. They say snow absorbs sound and that is why it always seems so quiet during a snowstorm, would think that would be perfect conditions for a mime?

NEW update from the boys and it confirms my forecast for today:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The deformation axis of snow on the backside of the departing
system has pivoted into the local area, aligning near/S of I-71
stretching from N KY and SE IN through central OH. This band
has become particularly intense in several spots, with
widespread visibility less than 1/4 mile yet again, exacerbating
ongoing travel difficulties across the region. This band has
shown some signs of constricting and intensifying very close to
I-71, which will likely lead to hourly snow rates in excess of 1
inch for a brief time and an additional 2-3" of snow, with
isolated higher amounts, in these areas. The band will slowly
pivot to the E through mid/late afternoon, focusing more across
south-central OH and NE KY by late in the day before departing
to the E altogether this evening.

We want to continue to highlight that sustained winds of
10-20mph, with gusts up to 30-35mph, are expected throughout
the day. With additional snowfall and snowpack on the ground,
blowing and drifting snow will create some reduced visibilities
(even if it is no longer actively snowing), adding to the
challenging travel conditions.

Snow will come to an end progressively from WNW to ESE from mid
to late afternoon, trending drier area-wide this afternoon.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:38 am I know there will be lots of post mortem about the models and whose forecast was best. et al. Not going to talk about that, but do think we should talk about this storm. How many times in the past have we thought we were golden on a storm, only to see the wheels come off at the last second? I always try and explain to people when they complain about forecasters that a snow storm is like this big complex machine and there are a thousand levers that all have multiple positions and all have to line up just right; if even one of those 1000 levers is off even a small amount, the whole thing doesn't work. For the first time in a very long time, all the 1000 levers worked exactly as we needed them to, from the LP staying over 1000mb to the track, to the lack of Cellular storm activity down south robbing moisture transport, to the transfer being slow and not one going up the East Coast. And the fresh cold from prior table setters, the "just enough" of a NE wind. And the folks on here did an AMAZING job of vetting all those things and pointing them out to us followers. It's what makes this forum worth its weight in gold to anyone whose interests include weather. Thanks for all the hours and days of that, AV Land!

Wonderful post, Dave! Thank you for being here all these years! Always a pleasure to talk shop with you!

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:42 am Best closing so far on the monster list had to be the Tri-State Mime School closing. They say snow absorbs sound and that is why it always seems so quiet during a snowstorm, would think that would be perfect conditions for a mime?

I didn't even know that a mime school was even a thing!

8.75" now on the back deck.

Measured 9” when I started shoveling the driveway this morning. Just got done, I’d guess at least another fresh inch. Very unofficially 10” in Green Two.

Seeing numerous reports in the 7-10" range out there on ILN's real time snow amounts page.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:46 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:42 am Best closing so far on the monster list had to be the Tri-State Mime School closing. They say snow absorbs sound and that is why it always seems so quiet during a snowstorm, would think that would be perfect conditions for a mime?

I didn't even know that a mime school was even a thing!

I almost fell out of my chair when I saw it come up; thought I was seeing things, but it came up a second time. There was also some random remodeling contractor who was probably just a three man operation, I laughed at that one too because it was just an attempt to get some free advertising.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:46 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:42 am Best closing so far on the monster list had to be the Tri-State Mime School closing. They say snow absorbs sound and that is why it always seems so quiet during a snowstorm, would think that would be perfect conditions for a mime?

I didn't even know that a mime school was even a thing!

I heard the students didn’t have anything to say about it.

Mime school and never heard of that before. Does sound very peaceful though and close my eyes and good to go

Having that cold air in place before a storm was so key plus the southeast ridge was not a bully. This pattern looks to continue and at the moment southeast ridge not a problem and the western GOM open for business. Only time will tell but when you have a really good pattern you hope to hit on a few storms.

22 and moderate snow at CVG as of 11am with 1/2 mile vis. QPF Total 0.94"