Absolute Vorticity

weatherbeast45107 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 9:58 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 9:54 am

Closet Meteorologist wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 9:50 am K-Rob thinks we are gonna have ice until dark.

That’s very much a possibility.

That would all but end our hopes of any goid snow totals, correct?

Not necessarily. Most of the backend snows are expected to occur later. If it changes over sooner than that, we’d get more of course.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 9:57 am Still frz/rain and no sleet. Roads are icy as well and need the sleet to start making an appearance.

Tim, it's all sleet here and temps went from 30 at 7 am down to 27 now at 10 am. Hope the Freezing rain doesn't come back.

This isn't fun

Pretty much a sleet fest here...

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:01 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 9:57 am Still frz/rain and no sleet. Roads are icy as well and need the sleet to start making an appearance.

Tim, it's all sleet here and temps went from 30 at 7 am down to 27 now at 10 am. Hope the Freezing rain doesn't come back.

Hey Joe, could you send that sleet this way. I know Les is getting sleet and lives about 10 miles west of me. Sure its coming but a slow process. No doubt Joe the temps are starting to fall and by late this afternoon around 6pm I would not be surprised if we are nearing 20 degrees.

Glad to see the icicles have stopped dripping and its entirely sleet now. Trees are definitely sagging, and we certainly don't need any more ice accumulating on them with winds picking up.

Hovering at 33 degrees for last two hours - steady rain - no ice yet!

Checking in from atop a hill bordering Latonia and Taylor Mill. Mix of sleet and freezing rain. Looks like a nice thin sheet of sleet and ice on all surfaces outside the building.

WAA at 850 continues and until that orange color dissipates, we’re locked into sleet/freezing rain.

Forgot to add picture. BTW Les, can now confirm light snow and little sleet here in Maineville!

Down to 25 now and still a sleet fest. Heck at this rate it will prob sleet at zero degrees LOL

I think I am about as close to the sleet/snow line as I can get!
Southern Montgomery County

Still 32 degrees. UUUUUUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHH.

Sleeting at CVG as of 10am down to 30 degrees.

Oh, now 31!

As of 9:19am from ILN:

Mixed precipitation is overspreading the entire region this
morning. So far, the forecast remains on track for the most part
as locations NW of I-71 are primarily observing snowfall and
will continue to do so for the remainder of today and tonight.
Around the I-71 corridor (including areas just SE of I-71),
numerous reports of freezing rain and sleet have trickled in
this morning, with most locations only observing a brief period
(1-3 hours) of freezing rain before transitioning to primarily
sleet. This trend should keep most of the ice accumulations to
around a tenth of an inch around I-71, with increasing ice
accumulations as you move further south due to the longer
duration of freezing rain expected the remainder of this morning
and afternoon. Frozen precipitation has started to work its way
south towards the OH River and will eventually reach our
southern OH and northern KY counties by this afternoon. There
could be a longer lag in portions of Scioto co, OH and Lewis co,
KY as surface temperatures will be slower to reach 32 or below
there. The heaviest axis of freezing rain remains across our
southeastern counties throughout the Scioto Valley and portions
of northern KY, stretching up through eastern OH. Ice
accumulations will range from 0.25"-0.5" for those counties,
which combined with wind gusts of 20-30 mph, could enhance the
potential for power outages and tree damage. Trends in p-type
will continue to be monitored as more rapid transitions could
reduce ice accumulation for some locations.

The other important note here is some updates to the snow and
sleet accumulations - especially for locations along the I-71
corridor, which includes portions of the Columbus, Cincinnati
and Dayton metro areas. There have been some increases in
snow/sleet accumulations made with the last two updates -
increasing totals by about 1-2" for some spots. This is mainly
driven by indications in hi-res models and the HREF in which a
band of enhanced reflectivity will setup near the I-71 corridor
this afternoon/evening and increase precipitation rates across
a good swath of counties in that vicinity. The challenge is
where exactly the snow/sleet line will be as this will
ultimately separate where significant snowfall accumulations
will occur. There will be locations where snowfall rates of
0.5"-1.0" per hour will be possible during the late
afternoon/early evening timeframe - which will more likely be
focused just along and NW of I-71. While locations just SE of
I-71 will end up with more sleet during this period, this
timeframe is still a major concern for those who are commuting
as there will be a several hour window of reduced visibilities
(blowing/drifting snow with gusts of 25-35 mph) and rapidly
accumulating snow/sleet on the roadways. This timeframe is also
when enhanced icing (freezing rain accumulation) is expected to
severely impact our southeastern counties. While the enhanced
rain rates aren`t necessarily favorable for rapid ice
accumulation (due to increased runoff), there still will be
major travel hazards for a large swath of our CWA during this
timeframe no matter the p-type being observed. Use extreme
caution if you have to travel this afternoon/evening, but avoid
the roadways as best as you can.

I can report sleet, sleet, and more sleet in Peppertown, Indiana

30 imby with moderate sleet. What a mess outside! A thick layer of ice is on the driveway now and it's going to be tough to remove once it sets up and freezes later. It's accumulating on the street now.

Back to predominately sleet again.

NEW MD for mixed precip - Frz rain and sleet:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0119.html

The sleet fest was predicted and has been modeled for a few days. We've been through this sort of set-up before. It's always hard and frustrating to watch sleet fall when you know it could be snow. But this is a very big storm and when we do transition to snow it's going to be at a time when the heaviest of the precipitation for this entire event is falling. The snow that accumulates will accumulate at a fast rate. It will not take but a short time frame for the predicted accumulations to come to fruition. The sleet is frustrating, but so far, everything is transpiring as predicted.

Keep an eye on the IND and ILN correlation coefficient field to see if any movement east or south of the sleet snow line takes place. So far it is pretty much stationary

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:29 am The sleet fest was predicted and has been modeled for a few days. We've been through this sort of set-up before. It's always hard and frustrating to watch sleet fall when you know it could be snow. But this is a very big storm and when we do transition to snow it's going to be at a time when the heaviest of the precipitation for this entire event is falling. The snow that accumulates will accumulate at a fast rate. It will not take but a short time frame for the predicted accumulations to come to fruition. The sleet is frustrating, but so far, everything is transpiring as predicted.

Great post and I 100% agree

850s at CVG are around +4C now.

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:29 am The sleet fest was predicted and has been modeled for a few days. We've been through this sort of set-up before. It's always hard and frustrating to watch sleet fall when you know it could be snow. But this is a very big storm and when we do transition to snow it's going to be at a time when the heaviest of the precipitation for this entire event is falling. The snow that accumulates will accumulate at a fast rate. It will not take but a short time frame for the predicted accumulations to come to fruition. The sleet is frustrating, but so far, everything is transpiring as predicted.

Perfect morning summary! It is 10:30am and what we are seeing is what was modeled. No surprises. It's gonna be a B to shovel, tho!